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Nota, you sure the current bond price is 90? The first google hit has 90 but states delayed data so price is as if 9th Sep. Another site has a significant lower up to date price from the graph but inconveniently they haven’t labelled the axis with the prices so I can only tell it’s lower (cbonds website); even then I can’t really tell if it’s an estimation.
The caving in of the share price since August contrasts with the bond price falling from 94.5% to 90.5%. Think this is the first period since the beginning of the year that there's been no disclosable shorts. The half year report stated that a bond financing team had already been appointed and had been underway for the last few months. With the Company already explaining how they will respond to COVID, I think this is the main concern. The Company has stated that they hope to conclude this activity this year. So probably by the update to be given in October or November if they succeed. Hopefully the clearing of the shorts is indicative of their chances. Key thing as well will be how the general market sentiment changes to the Chancellor's winter plans later today.
Question is do the Directors have enough skin in the game to not stiff the share holders during this refinance?
As an IPF share holder I hope refinancing goes as planned.
International Personal Finance Director Holdings
Name Position Shares Held Total Value (£)
Deborah Davis Non Executive Director 45,000 £22,793
W Holmes Non Executive Director 200,000 £101,300
Justin Lockwood Financial Director 47,216 £23,915
John Mangelaars Non Executive Director 50,000 £25,325
Richard Moat Non Executive Director 15,000 £7,598
Cathryn Riley Non Executive Director 14,795 7,494
Gerard Ryan Chief Executive Officer 631,953 £320,084
Stuart Sinclair Chairman 2020 86,944 £44,037
Bronwyn Syiek Non Executive Director 201 20,000 £10,130
Well the way the markets going you’d think they had little chance of refinancing.
In 2 weeks IPF since their last (very positive) update the SP has lost 35%, yes 35%.
Has there been any bad news that has driven the carnage, well i can’t find anything, certainly nothing company-specific. Bonkers.
The Euro bond is still trading at 90cents to the Euro I hope this is a good sign that IPF is solvent
Does anyone have an idea of how the bond Refinancing is going?
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1054714248-international-personal-finance-plc-5-75-14-21
That’s good news. How on earth then has this dropped down to 51p ?!
Millenium which had increased its short to 0.92% on the 16th Sep has now closed its short
No shorts remain on IPF above monitoring threshold of 0.5%
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1YKG049/
Depends as always how long for have, are you trading, what about the fundamentals. The difference this time is work, businesses will trade whatever except social distancing tasks, gyms, airlines etc which are being destroyed. Less Covid risk businesses will continue and the government won’t shut them down, too much to loose. So called luxury stuff gone, day to day carries on. Therefore I don’t understand actual borrow situations but the business won’t be impacted in trying to operate. Asked before in this climate of less employment and credit I’m not sure whether this business does better or worse?
Oil obviously down due to travel, tech which sells stuff bar amazon, hotels etc. I think it’s actually easier to see the themes of next six months more so than normal. I get three divi payments this next two weeks, all back into a share for bigger payment next time. Gla
I sold and am simply trying to explain my reasoning. I have been a supporter of the company for some time but Ia stop has been triggered to day and 'm feeling very pessimistic about the market in general and this was one of my larger positions. Sorry to offend notaflipper. I hope it does well for you.
You've sold out and are looking the share to trade down. Period
I think Barclays and the FTSE will continue to fall at least into tomorrow. The FTSE has no support below where it is now (5900). I've decided to liquidate my entire position. Net asset based plays like this will take much longer to recover than growth plays. Can see this moving back up slowly enough and the final upside target is so far away can easily catch it on the way up
Barclays was at one point 10% down today but seems to recovering much of its losses and now only circa 3.75% down. Usually we follow the trendline of Barclays and so one would have supposed that we should bounce back from the 55p area which has traditionally been a resistance area for most of the period since June.
Got stopped out today. Kept a small holding but decided to protect the tiny profit I made. Overdone - agreed, but as they say the market will stay irrational longer longer than you can stay liquid.
Im putting some aside for the rebound but feels like this is something that will go a little deeper than a short drop with pullback. Maybe I'm wrong but sentiment in the market is awful right now and its one of those situations where everything is falling, cryptos, PMs, EM currencies which just leads to margin calls and then things start caving in as positions are indiscriminately liquidated.
I hoped the gradual recovery would continue but expected a scenario like this and had decided to bank some profits and protect capital by realigning into some more defensive positions if this happened. I'll be back though
Besides which, the half yearly are historic - this is monthly up to date.
I believe that they are doing monthly updates at the moment. This has been the case over the summer anyway.
There should be a trading update issued before the end of the month, I expect it to be positive.
Appreciate that the market today is a bit bearish with Financial stocks however the current sp is now lower I think than before the c.£45 million in polish tax that was repaid. This comprised of c.£35 million that IIPF paid in January 2017 in order to appeal the tax authority decisions, plus associated interest of c.£10 million. With collections effectiveness following the positive trend reported since the June reaching 96+% of pre-Covid expectations it seems a bit overdone.
Given the bond price is currently 90p in the £, is it not possible for us to make some further purchases at a discount and cancel? If it is possible would this not be the best use of the £300m of available cash at the moment?
Correspondence from IPF Investor Relations re Sunday Time article:
"The feature in the Sunday Times was disappointing when we reported an improving operational performance post Covid which has been challenging and the strong capital position and cash flows generated. To our investors we have reiterated that our near-term priority is the refinancing of the 2021 Eurobond. We are actively preparing for this having appointed debt advisors and intend to undertake the refinancing during the remainder of 2020. We will continue to update the market when appropriate."
As Whitebox Advisors LLC had reduced their short to 0.43% they are no longer being tracked by Short Tracker as they do not track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. So no way of knowing if they will still continue the trend or just hold position.
I think that's a fair observation. The bid is often taken around below 60 but you can rarely buy at that level. Sometimes it suddenly drops a couple of p and then snaps back. Seems to me there's a reasonably urgent seller but probably some buyers at around 60 as well.
This is one of the weakest shares in my portfolio and really does seem to be beset by headwinds and evil sentiment but it also has one of the biggest gaps to fill to get to pre covid and isn't performing any worse than the other more liquid mainstream financials like HSBC, LLoyds etc. Those charts are truly astonishing
Seems like a tale of two parts:
Millennium International Management LP have increased their short position up 0.07% to 0.80. This follows their negativity on the FIN sector with a £11m bet again Bank of Ireland.
White Box however seems to have reduced their short position from 0.56% to 0.43%.
I personally still think somethings still happening in the back with how close the sp has wedded to the 60p mark. I do hope the Company does give an update sooner that the normal monthly trading progress to break this trading holding pattern
So high unemployment, economic problems etc ?? Does this benefit the business as people search out new and alternative ways to get money? Can’t go to a bank so what can I do? And if controlled in a sensible, correct manner it can benefit the company
I like your 40% better and I do hope your right. I see no reason why they won’t refinance, like many it’s a national lockdown which will create problems
Thanks for sharing that bit.. I didn't read the article, not a Times fan... just assumed that it would be full of red flags. That's pretty consistent with my own reasoning, though I wouldn't say the price reflects 77%. I would say its lower, more like 40%