Banshee rightly pointed out my calculous was flawed because I used the incorrect shares outstanding figure.
Let's walk through the recalculation of potential funding scenarios for INSG's digital pivot:
Target raise amounts: £3 million and £5 million
Current shares in issue: 124,962,212
VWAP (estimated): 26p
Dilution scenarios: 15% and 20% (not unreasonable?)
Market context: The share price is depressed due to anticipated further dilution — a self-fulfilling prophecy common in small caps. Can we agree this is playing out.
1. Funding via Share Issuance at 26p
We assume the funding is raised entirely through equity at the VWAP.
£3 million raise
Shares to issue = £3,000,000 ÷ 26p = 11,538,462 shares
Post-raise total shares = 124,962,212 + 11,538,462 = 136,500,674
Dilution = (11,538,462 ÷ 136,500,674) = 8.45%
So, a £3 million raise at 26p results in 8.45% dilution.
£5 million raise
Shares to issue = £5,000,000 ÷ 26p = 19,230,769 shares
Post-raise total shares = 124,962,212 + 19,230,769 = 144,192,981
Dilution = (19,230,769 ÷ 144,192,981) = 13.33%
So, a £5 million raise at 26p results in 13.33% dilution.
2. Maximum Raise Under Fixed Dilution Scenarios
Now, let’s flip the equation: how much could INSG raise if the company capped dilution at 15% or 20%, still pricing the new shares at 26p?
15% Dilution Scenario
Target post-raise shares = 124,962,212 ÷ (@15%) = 147,014,367
New shares issued = 147,014,367 - 124,962,212 = 22,052,155 shares
Potential funding = 22,052,155 × 26p = £5.73 million
So, if INSG allowed up to 15% dilution, it could raise £5.73 million at 26p.
20% Dilution Scenario
Target post-raise shares = 124,962,212 ÷ (@20%) = ~156,202,765
New shares issued = 156,202,765 - 124,962,212 = 31,240,553 shares
Potential funding = 31,240,553 × 26p = ~£8.12 million
Thus, with 20% dilution, the company could raise £8.12 million at the same share price.
Timing is exceptionally important, and given Leading financial institutions — including the Bank of England and the IMF — are warning that the dramatic rise in AI-related stock valuations bears hallmarks of past market bubbles. As of October 2025, concerns are mounting that stretched valuations could unwind sharply if sentiment turns or AI’s transformative promises falter.
A potent mix of record capital inflows, elevated pricing, and investor FOMO has propelled major AI stocks to outsized positions in global indices — reminiscent of the pre-dotcom era. Analysts caution that even a modest shift in AI adoption expectations could trigger a broad market selloff.
A correction in AI valuations could disproportionately impact small caps — but for businesses like INSG, it also presents a moment to stand out through operational resilience and differentiated value.
I hope this helps.