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Started: Tiberian, 23 May 2024 20:08
Last post: Tiberian, 23 May 2024 20:08
The announcement this evening that legislation will not now be introduced in this parliament should give a bounce tomorrow to Tobacco shares, this decision will mean at the earliest it will be another year to 18months away if at all especially if labour are elected.
Started: stargate, 15 May 2024 12:05
Last post: ValueS, 20 May 2024 08:38
Those "technical analysts" only appear after the "event". If I knew beforehand I would had sold the house, car, dog , wife to buy imb. Fortunately, I didn't 😀
"Baz was bang on the money😁"
''So it might go up,down or stay where it is.''.There you go,Baz was bang on the money😁
So it might go up,down or stay where it is.
Sorry, target date for upper line resistance was 26/5/24, not 26/6/24, so 11 days early.
Last post: bbrinkw, 15 May 2024 16:49
Next four ex dividend payments and previous year's dividend paid in brackets:-
22 August 2024 (22p)
21 November 2024 (50.1p)
20 February 2024 (50.1p)
22 May 2025 (22.2p)
As well as this dividend what others are they paying this year cheers
New to all this
Hope you didn't sell this morning, risen enough to cancel out 2x ex divi drops already
May 23rd---- so a week to go.
Mines about £240 with the potential 22p divi, fortunately the SP has been in an upward trend of late so will probably recover the divi within a couple of days anyway if that trend continues along with the buy-backs and then your buying back higher. I won't be risking it for the sake of a dozen+ shares
It's on dividend max as the 23rd.
Anyone thought about selling and rebuying once it falls ex div?
£200 dividend and maybe a £400 drop for me?
Has the ex divi date been decided yet? or is it told tomorrow.It's usually about the 25th.
Last post: Bigbadbaz, 14 May 2024 14:12
We are getting a good run up to the results tomorrow, heres hoping.
Started: OracleofOldham, 16 Apr 2024 16:46
Last post: kentio, 13 May 2024 13:00
Suugest we think internationally. I travel extensively and. at oresent. am 3 months in North. Africa. I am amazed at the number if people smoking. I have an apartment. abive a "tabac" and there is a. constaant. stream of buyers.
I have 3 good friends. here- I am currently in Morocco- one Moroccan, one French. one. German - they all smoke. (not. me)
Most if the moroccan smokers. are. young men - and will probably be hooked. for life.
Then think of. China - 40% are. smokers.
It will be a long long. tie before. smoking is eliminated and as. consumption falls, prices will increase -and so will your. dividends.
The manufacturing cost of a packet of cigarettes is a very small percentage of the retail price.
If the manufacturer puts the price up by say 10p that has a big impact on the profit margin.
Add on the 16.5% tax and VAT at 20% and it’s still only an increase of say 14p per packet.
I don’t think it will be a big problem with consumers.
UK is 8% of group net revenue (per the 2023 annual report, page 85).
BaldChap why on earth would you put the figure at 5% in the UK? You make it sound like Imperial isn't one of the major tobacco players in the UK. That figure is very low, I would be shocked if it weren't at least 30%.
Hi Clued, "In the UK population in 2022, 12.9% of people aged 18 years and over, or around 6.4 million people, smoked cigarettes; this is the lowest proportion of current smokers since records began in 2011 based on our estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS)." - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/adultsmokinghabitsingreatbritain/2022#:~:text=1.-,Main%20points,Annual%20Population%20Survey%20(APS).
"The plans have hit the share price of companies like L&B cigarette maker Imperial Brands (IMB.L), which has highlighted the UK as one of its key markets. - https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-lawmakers-vote-smoking-ban-younger-generations-2024-04-16/
Clued even Imperial acknowledges that the UK is one of its key markets, why would you think that this wouldn't have a huge impact on the company? Have you ever known a company to be happy to be losing out on millions of customers?
Started: ValueS, 11 Mar 2024 08:34
Last post: Easy_Livin, 11 Mar 2024 14:12
Unfortunately HL would charge £11.95 to sell said 7 shares so only really useful if dealing with higher numbers.
Best
" I know we can always cash in some shares"
Exactly! You can convert a buyback to a dividend by selling into it. For ex., if someone holds a modest 200 IMB shares and this second tranche achieves a 3.5% reduction in the sharecount @ a VWAP of say 1800 p, then he could sell 7 shares (@ VWAP = £126) without affecting his % holding. This is equivalent to a 63 p dividend payment.
Best Regards ValueS
BB programs are all well and good, but any chance they could beef up the lower priced divi quarter's. I know we can always cash in some shares, but that costs us shareholders money.
"To execute the second tranche of this share repurchase programme, the Company has entered into an irrevocable and non-discretionary arrangement with Barclays Capital Securities Limited ("Barclays") to repurchase up to £550 million of its shares commencing from 11 March 2024 and expected to end no later than 29 October 2024 (the "Programme"), which is slightly longer than originally envisaged."
The market is reacting positively!
Best Regards ValueS
Started: midlandboy, 7 Mar 2024 14:23
Last post: midlandboy, 7 Mar 2024 14:23
On the upward trajectory again, i hope. GLA
Tomorrow will determine where this share is heading. No doubt the anylst will get their bean counters out and do sales prediction as to the amount of tax cigs/vapes will go up by and share predictions will emerge
Started: AliveandKicking, 5 Mar 2024 06:08
Last post: AliveandKicking, 5 Mar 2024 06:08
the only reason i can think this share is going down is all the hype over the budget and extra tax on vapes ?. when one thinks the uk market is only a fraction of the world market and that proper ***s are still imb main business it still does not make any sense and bat has not been hit as hard as imb. mind you i have held shares for 20 years that have fallen on good results and for no logical reason other than shorting which is why i never understand why that speculative practice is even allowed on the uk markets ?i do think its quite funny also how the torys announced they were going to follow the virtuous ex nz prime minsters wok action to raise the legal smoking age which was going to be impossible to enforce. now the nz people have had the chance to tell their new gov where to stick the un workable wok idea and its all being dropped . thatcher had many many faults but she must be turning in her grave looking at the 21st century nanny hand outs for nothing tory state .
29th Feb "These purchases are the last purchases to be made under the first £550 million tranche (the "First Tranche") announced on 06 October 2023, part of the £1.1 billion share buyback programme announced on 05 October 2023; accordingly, the First Tranche of the programme has been completed in accordance with its terms. Under the First Tranche, the Company repurchased 30,317,505 shares of 10 pence each at an average price of 1,814.13 pence per share."
Hmm no buybacks today :(
Hopefully they will still keep the dividend going that’s the only reason I invested typically I am now down 10%
No intention of selling will slowly keep topping up at some point
Cheaper it gets the more valuable those committed buybacks become! The FCF yield is now approaching 18%!!
Looking like another down day how low is this going l wonder
Started: highlowballs, 28 Feb 2024 16:15
Last post: Siddeek, 2 Mar 2024 11:36
He purchased on 24th february
ANDREW GILCHRIST Non-exec director just purchased 3,000 shares today!
I was going to mention previously that people should not be so concerned with director sells as the reasons for this are often unrelated to expectations of future performance, however there is only one reason that directors buy shares and that is because they believe the shares will rise in value!
Started: highlowballs, 28 Feb 2024 12:13
Last post: Hukster, 28 Feb 2024 13:47
The subsequent sells are all to pay the tax liability on the exercised options.
Looks the insiders/directors have been selling hard lately...
-------------------
Latest deals
Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value
2024-02-20 Sell Lukas Paravicini 1,824.58p 57,407 £1,047,436.20
2024-02-20 Exercise of option Lukas Paravicini 0.000p 121,592 £0.00
2024-02-16 Sell Stefan Bomhard 1,843.00p 140,219 £2,584,235.68
2024-02-16 Exercise of option Stefan Bomhard 0.000p 296,996 £0.00
This stock is on a 17.5% free cash flow yield at the moment. Who the heck is selling? Even the buybacks can't hold off the selling pressure!
Started: salver2, 27 Feb 2024 17:52
Last post: salver2, 27 Feb 2024 20:16
Thank you highlowballs I didn’t look closely enough at the RNS!
That was to cover his tax liability. He still holds his residual shares.
It’s worth noting that Lucas Paravicini the CFO sold half his shareholding worth about a million quid last week-does he know something we don’t?
Started: Jing72, 13 Dec 2023 13:39
Last post: andyalan10, 27 Feb 2024 14:18
Sorry Siddeek, investing.com has a flag to that effect, but nothing on IMB corporate website, hence my second post.
Where did you see the results tomorrow
Maybe they are going to revalue the business as bats did a little while ago
Although perhaps I should trust IMB's website more than investing.com when it comes to information about upcoming announcements...
As the price didn't begin to fall until about 9:30 I don't think it is news in the papers. Also BATS haven't shown the same fall. With results due tomorrow it looks very much like a leak to me.
Started: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 12:55
Last post: Clued, 27 Feb 2024 13:25
Two desperate men, Sunak and Hunt, given the state of UK finances !! Tobacco smokers and vapers will just have to pay more !!
Big tobacco firms Imperial and BAT fall on vape tax plan
Shares in tobacco giants British American Tobacco PLC (LSE:BATS) and Imperial Brands PLC (LSE:IMB) fell on news that vaping and cigarettes could be hit with new taxes in the UK.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt are mulling introducing a new tax on vapes at next Wednesday's Budget, according to media reports.
Currently vaping products are subject to VAT but not the same levy as is applied to cigarettes.
Tobacco duty could also increase at the Budget, to ensure that vaping remains cheaper, reported the Times, which first broke the story.
Last month, plans were announced for UK-wide restrictions on disposable vapes, to tackle the rise in youth vaping.
Imperial Brands, which owns the Blu vape brand and tobacco brands including Golden Virginia and Richmond, shares fell 4.3% while BAT, which owns Vuse vaping brand and Rothmans and Lucky Strikes, was down only 0.6%.
"Although the industry is jostling for position in the vaping market, given the volumes declines in tobacco, these products are still a relatively small part of the picture," said market analyst Susannah Streeter at HL.
"Investors had also been expecting greater regulation in the sector, so a potential increase in tax isn’t a wild surprise and given they are global companies a change in UK fiscal policy won't move the dial too much."
Started: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 13:23
Last post: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 13:23
Looks like the buybacks are starting to kick in already!!
Started: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 12:37
Last post: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 12:37
Can't wait for the buyback announcement after the close today! Should be a very outsized amount! At least one million shares plus!
Started: highlowballs, 27 Feb 2024 12:23
Last post: sparhawk, 27 Feb 2024 12:29
Hmm, could be a broker downgrade or maybe someone knows something we dont
Cannot figure out why the massive fall in price today! If this is related to the tax on vapes, that makes no sense, as it's not like IMB has a premium attached to it based on its prospects in vaping.......I am stumped on this one! Picked up a few more shares for better or worse!!
Last post: Jakey72, 6 Feb 2024 14:26
Thank you
Ex divi next Thursday,payment 28th March
Are they still paying a dividend this month cheers all.
Last post: Mr.Picky, 7 Dec 2023 17:05
I see that The Capital Group Companies, Inc. have just acquired another 5% of IMB. They obviously see the dip in the share price as an opportunity to double their holding.
How were they to know which way the sp would go?
I'd expect the SP to rise as we head towards the two bigger dividend payouts & the downside for IMB is that it buys back less shares for the same money. It's a shame they didn't cease the buy backs at 1750p & then use the cash saved to pay down some debt.
Then if the SP drops again next year = buy back more shares at a lower price & repeat the cycle once again.
Started: dab808, 14 Nov 2023 08:00
Last post: Guitarsolo, 22 Nov 2023 15:07
I dare say you are correct Licancabur. I don't know the maturity dates or coupons on IMB's bonds which would affect the decision. Likewise a comparison of the cost of the debt compared to the "cost" of equity (i.e. dividends). I'd be happy to see both some level of buyback and some debt repayment since both will long-term lead to higher EPS and therefore justify a higher dividend, which is why I am invested.
I've been here for quite a while (2013 I think) and wasn't ever comfortable with Alison Cooper's debt pile of £12.x billion whilst increasing the dividend 10% every year. IMB is on a better path now but I would like to see a continued push towards lower debt because we know that stick volume will fall over time. At the moment they are squeezing as much out of the price of ciggies as possible but there could come a time when they are just so expensive (and heavily taxed) that volumes drop considerably. If that happens you don't want to have much debt on the books as all the company's earnings will be directed that way instead of my way! Control your debts before your debts control you etc.
Guitarsolo I imagine the debt would reduce more quickly if they weren't buying in shares. The board clearly calculate that the value of the buybacks in enhancing eps outweighs the debt burden. Just a thought.
I would add a slight reduction in reported net debt from 8.1bn to 8.0bn (or 8.5bn to 8.4bn adjusted net debt - not sure what the difference is there). Personally, I would like to see debt continue to come down so that eventually more of the retained profit can be paid out as dividends. But overall, a solid set of results.
And yes, the price drops!
Fantastic results. Growth in revenues, significant growth in new products, huge growth in profits. Buybacks and dividend increases.... Happy days. Price will obviously fall...
Started: stargate, 2 Nov 2023 15:18
Last post: stargate, 2 Nov 2023 15:18
Price targets are 1835 and 1930. Positive divergence on RSI, indicator and head and shoulders price break, confirms line of least resistance is up. The target of 1930, is calculated from the year and shoulders price formation. IMB, is the relative stronger of the two tobacco charts .
Last post: Meconopsis, 18 Oct 2023 23:46
“ciggy companies are doomed”
The one thing we are agreed on. In principle.
Except that prohibition has never worked. Bhutan banned the sale of cigarettes and has since had to re-legalise because it drove smokers to more dangerous, unregulated black market products.
The New Zealand and UK policy of raising the smoking age by one year a year is great on paper. But fraught with unenforceability. In 15 years time what shop is going to challenge whether someone is 29 vs 30?
The truth is that societies face a choice between taxing and regulating the legal or fighting an unwinnable “war” against the illegal.
History shows that it’s always been better to tax and regulate.
IMO, this is what’s wrong with the “war” on drugs more widely.
“ The charts for this are just dire over any time frame since 2016…..these are going to about 12 quid a share, all basket case U.K. dividend stocks are capital destructive but the ciggy companies are doomed.”
Another day, another meaningless rant devoid of insight or fact.
@Trabant - we “salute” the *ahem* “quality” of your contributions.
Porsche, stop your nonsense please.
The charts for this are just dire over any time frame since 2016…..these are going to about 12 quid a share, all basket case U.K. dividend stocks are capital destructive but the ciggy companies are doomed.
Down trendline break today, however unlikely to hold above the break , because lowest volume for 2 weeks, and overhead supply from previous trading. A valid trend line break requires to hold for 2 days, so Thursday, tomorrow, should confirm. If the equity retraces, it will likely drop to price range 1680-1730. If tobacco sector chart remains above 28,000, buy IMB, at the lower price range.