Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The manufacturing cost of a packet of cigarettes is a very small percentage of the retail price.
If the manufacturer puts the price up by say 10p that has a big impact on the profit margin.
Add on the 16.5% tax and VAT at 20% and it’s still only an increase of say 14p per packet.
I don’t think it will be a big problem with consumers.
UK is 8% of group net revenue (per the 2023 annual report, page 85).
BaldChap why on earth would you put the figure at 5% in the UK? You make it sound like Imperial isn't one of the major tobacco players in the UK. That figure is very low, I would be shocked if it weren't at least 30%.
Hi Clued, "In the UK population in 2022, 12.9% of people aged 18 years and over, or around 6.4 million people, smoked cigarettes; this is the lowest proportion of current smokers since records began in 2011 based on our estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS)." - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/adultsmokinghabitsingreatbritain/2022#:~:text=1.-,Main%20points,Annual%20Population%20Survey%20(APS).
"The plans have hit the share price of companies like L&B cigarette maker Imperial Brands (IMB.L), which has highlighted the UK as one of its key markets. - https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-lawmakers-vote-smoking-ban-younger-generations-2024-04-16/
Clued even Imperial acknowledges that the UK is one of its key markets, why would you think that this wouldn't have a huge impact on the company? Have you ever known a company to be happy to be losing out on millions of customers?
Sollyi, "It is likely going to hit them very hard from what I gather "
Where did you 'gather' your objective information please ?
heres my take . *** of the packet stuff,if you ignore the pun.
uk currently has around sixk million cigerette smokers. around ten percent of population
about forteen million people are under the age of eighteen. so if you say ten percent of these could end up smokers. then you have one point four million. imperial together with another major controls about eighty per cent of the market. so loosly we could say that going forward they will loose about five hundred thousand of new smokers . there is of course the element of older smokers dying which is around thirty thousand per year if we work on the forty percent of market assumption. so all in inmv they should easily be able to absorb this. we then have future generation products that should also fill a gap. inmo
I would be surprised if the UK was much more than 5% of sales?
The price may wobble, which may be an opportunity for some.
It is only a problem if the EU follow suit.
It is likely going to hit them very hard from what I gather.
From what I can tell Imp doesn't break down by country their revenue, so given what seems a likely ban on people born 2009 onwards being able to smoke in the UK, does anyone have a reasonable estimate as to the hit Imp will take (If we don't do a New Zealand)?
Unfortunately HL would charge £11.95 to sell said 7 shares so only really useful if dealing with higher numbers.
Best
" I know we can always cash in some shares"
Exactly! You can convert a buyback to a dividend by selling into it. For ex., if someone holds a modest 200 IMB shares and this second tranche achieves a 3.5% reduction in the sharecount @ a VWAP of say 1800 p, then he could sell 7 shares (@ VWAP = £126) without affecting his % holding. This is equivalent to a 63 p dividend payment.
Best Regards ValueS
BB programs are all well and good, but any chance they could beef up the lower priced divi quarter's. I know we can always cash in some shares, but that costs us shareholders money.
"To execute the second tranche of this share repurchase programme, the Company has entered into an irrevocable and non-discretionary arrangement with Barclays Capital Securities Limited ("Barclays") to repurchase up to £550 million of its shares commencing from 11 March 2024 and expected to end no later than 29 October 2024 (the "Programme"), which is slightly longer than originally envisaged."
The market is reacting positively!
Best Regards ValueS
On the upward trajectory again, i hope. GLA
Tomorrow will determine where this share is heading. No doubt the anylst will get their bean counters out and do sales prediction as to the amount of tax cigs/vapes will go up by and share predictions will emerge
the only reason i can think this share is going down is all the hype over the budget and extra tax on vapes ?. when one thinks the uk market is only a fraction of the world market and that proper ***s are still imb main business it still does not make any sense and bat has not been hit as hard as imb. mind you i have held shares for 20 years that have fallen on good results and for no logical reason other than shorting which is why i never understand why that speculative practice is even allowed on the uk markets ?i do think its quite funny also how the torys announced they were going to follow the virtuous ex nz prime minsters wok action to raise the legal smoking age which was going to be impossible to enforce. now the nz people have had the chance to tell their new gov where to stick the un workable wok idea and its all being dropped . thatcher had many many faults but she must be turning in her grave looking at the 21st century nanny hand outs for nothing tory state .
29th Feb "These purchases are the last purchases to be made under the first £550 million tranche (the "First Tranche") announced on 06 October 2023, part of the £1.1 billion share buyback programme announced on 05 October 2023; accordingly, the First Tranche of the programme has been completed in accordance with its terms. Under the First Tranche, the Company repurchased 30,317,505 shares of 10 pence each at an average price of 1,814.13 pence per share."
He purchased on 24th february
Hmm no buybacks today :(
Hopefully they will still keep the dividend going that’s the only reason I invested typically I am now down 10%
No intention of selling will slowly keep topping up at some point
Cheaper it gets the more valuable those committed buybacks become! The FCF yield is now approaching 18%!!
Looking like another down day how low is this going l wonder
ANDREW GILCHRIST Non-exec director just purchased 3,000 shares today!
I was going to mention previously that people should not be so concerned with director sells as the reasons for this are often unrelated to expectations of future performance, however there is only one reason that directors buy shares and that is because they believe the shares will rise in value!
The subsequent sells are all to pay the tax liability on the exercised options.
Looks the insiders/directors have been selling hard lately...
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Latest deals
Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value
2024-02-20 Sell Lukas Paravicini 1,824.58p 57,407 £1,047,436.20
2024-02-20 Exercise of option Lukas Paravicini 0.000p 121,592 £0.00
2024-02-16 Sell Stefan Bomhard 1,843.00p 140,219 £2,584,235.68
2024-02-16 Exercise of option Stefan Bomhard 0.000p 296,996 £0.00