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Ex dividend date near ,16th Feb , took a few , first time .....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-brands-lon-imb-dividend-074030846.html
First not good for short, there is one +50% :)
Look at chart on yahoo (max)
From bottom 2000 @ 300p to 2008 @ 2300p. (+666%)
Then down for 1,5 years. (-34%)
Next leg from 2009 @ 1500p to 2016 @ 4100p. (+173%)
Then down for 4+ years. (-70%)
Now up from 2020 @ 1200 to todays @ 2000. (+66%)
I would say that 20% + divi is good result for 1 year (for big cap), I would take some money off the table.
For example lock(SL) 1/4 of position and wait for weakness to add position.
This is large cap and I think 100% - 150% is huge gain in Billions.., with small cap I would take first bite @ +50-100%.
Bad thing with my method is that you will never get 10 baggers.
TGA from 200 to 800 (current 1400)
XOM from 37 to 87 (current 100+)
redlse, thank you for your excellent analytical work here. How do you interpret the last figure of +12% in 2022; seems to buck the trend? This share has been sliding for the last decade. Do you think the +12% in 2022 reflects the positive sentiment recently? I am sitting on a capital gain of about 20% here on top of my divis based on my most recent purchases in the last two years. I am considering selling out while significantly ahead. Excellent dividend is pushing me to sit tight or reduce at the moment.
There is a cycle price movement every year. The top is somewhere in between the end of December and the first week in January. Bottom is around end of January, I am waiting for that point.
I think this cycle is because next two dividend are 50% smaller.
(First date is from previous year, % is my estimate from closing dates for possible short position over this period)
2000: 9 JAN - 30 JAN : -30%
2001: 26 DEC - 21 JAN: - 11%
2002: 6 JAN - 26 MAY: +50%
2003: 29 DEC - 2 FEB: -10%
2004: 4 JAN - 18 JAN: -4,7%
2005: 26 DEC - 16 JAN: -3,5%
2006: 25 DEC - 22 JAN: -4,9%
2007: 7 JAN - 14 JAN: -6,0%
2008: 6 JAN - 20 JAN: -10%
2009: 4 JAN - 4 MAY: -19%
2010: 27 DEC - 7 FEB: +6%
2011: 19 DEC - 23 JAN: -12%
2012: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: -7%
2013: 6 JAN - 27 JAN: -3%
2014: 22 DEC - 12 JAN: -5%
2015: 21 DEC - 28 DEC: -2,5%
2016: 27 DEC - 10 JAN: 0%
2017: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: +4%
2018: 30 DEC - 4 FEB: -16%
2019: 23 DEC - 20 JAN: 0%
2020: 22 DEC - APR: -30%
2021: 27 DEC - 21 FEB: -13%
2022: 26 DEC - 6 FEB: +12%
the best site is tradingview. You can set up a free account.
In terms of TA, we broke out in october from a diagonal channel that started in early 2020. We bounced off the upper bound of the channel in mid november and we may test it again around £20. Today the 50 MA held nicely
Thanks OWLS. Where can I find a SMA chart for any share? I don't use charts i my investment decisions and maybe I should.
Momentum works well for these stocks, sell when the price is below the 200 day SMA and buy when the price is above the 200 day SMA.
How does a 200 day MA rule (presumably the crossover) work with volatile stocks?
Generally quite good. It works better on more volatile stocks, it doesn't get you in at the bottom but helps you to get out before gains drift away.
OWLS, I'm interested. How has the MA rule worked for you? Genuine question; I haven't a clue about charts.
Depends when you invested. Follow the momentum, perhaps use the 200 day ma rule.
lti
Exactly.
el5
''More value in this yet''
Was over £40 a share a little over 6 years ago
Dropped back not much more than the divi and looks like a gradual climb back again to me. More value in this yet imo.
Guitarsolo the share buy backs are happening daily that’s what’s also been contributing the share price trend post results, you can see this in the Rns each morning.
OE
I sold some of my 'excess' shares today. The share price would have to retreat quite a bit (10% +) from the current level for me to have an interest in purchasing back the same amount.
So tomorrows price level is immaterial to me - still holding a lot for further upward moves in the future.
TG
DEC to fall 3% tomorrow?
TG
''there are higher yields available in the FTSE 100. For example LGEN at 7.5%, RIO at 8.6%. Also in the FTSE 250, DEC with a 11.5% yield''
I hold Rio at a very low average price.
Lgen is a relatively new investment for me (about 4 years) my personal yield about 8%.
DEC - most people would be treading water in the last couple of years on capital value.
The better investment would have been in a proper energy company like BP or SHELL both of which I hold at low averages.
Will be interesting to see how much the share price will drop ex dividend. Its already at a year high I've got a feeling it could drop to the low 20s over the next few days or lower.
longtime, point taken! But there are higher yields available in the FTSE 100. For example LGEN at 7.5%, RIO at 8.6%. Also in the FTSE 250, DEC with a 11.5% yield. Based on current share prices. I bought all of these at lower than the current SP so my yield% return is higher. We must also take into account that IMB pays its dividends unevenly so the next two dividends are actually 50% greater than the previous two. So over a 6 month time horizon if one were to invest now and sell late March, the annualised effective yield for IMB is around 10% for that period. This may be a factor for shorter term vs long term investors in buying the stock recently.
TG
''I'm saying that at 6.6% yield, the shares are not as attractive as they were last year''
but still very attractive compared with the current ftse 100 yield at under 4%
Davidspellacy. You misunderstand. I'm saying that at 6.6% yield, the shares are not as attractive as they were last year at >10% yield, other things being equal. But as pointed out elsewhere here, that is only one factor that influences the direction of the SP. Other factors seem to outweigh that recently. Guitarsolo and TradingMonkee have hit the right notes I think.
the amount bought for about 1460p in 2020 for over £21.83p
My own thoughts are that tabacco stocks are typically strong in inflationary times, presumably because they can pass their rising costs on relatively easily (it is a frequently purchased product where consumers are used to seeing prices change). That makes it a good defensive share to hold. Add to that, I think I saw net debt down to £8.5bn (from £9.4bn?).... Well I remember when it was well over £12bn! So that's a good thing. There is the forthcoming £1bn share buyback which will bring demand for the shares (why signal it in advance?!). The dividend is at an affordable level now with the prospect of it rising gently, so attractive to income funds and investors.
The share price has responded nicely over the last couple of years. I've been invested here for nearly 10 years so I am about where I started! But dividends in that time probably exceed £15 in the aggregate.
I hold for income.
I think thrones meant the percentage yield on the shares not the actual divi