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Vlad gave a hint yesterday of needing just 1 day holiday... He would once Eli Lilly contract signed this month.
Just waiting for my funds to free so i can buy some more of HEMO before the storm.
This SP will not be the same once the contract is signed.Hurry up lads.
Vlad also posted a photo of a field, THINK he took either yesterday or today off.
That said I think the post was genuinely just saying that he is exhausted rather than any sort of hints.
If you want to read anything into it and look at conspiracy theories then consider that the Eli Lilly contract will probably want to be in person if at all possible.
It could very well take place at the headquarters in Indianapolis, or perhaps in California.
If Vlad is travelling, given the Covid restrictions there will be fewer flights and more possibility for delays so he would leave himself plenty of time.
Perhaps he would go a day early and just relax, have a day vacation before that big board meeting where they gather to sign the CDX Licencing Agreement?
Personally I think after signing with University of Penn he decided to take a day off, but always happy to indulge in a good conspiracy theory :-)
JHFH wow mate, you also need to take a day off :)
I just wonder why you were not thinking about the field mouse...
I'm with JHFH, in fact that picture of a field is really fake grass that is just covering over HEMO's cash from the CDX agreement
What do you think will happen to share price if deal is not signed by EL??
What will happen if the deal is signed!!!!!
Back to the 7's. Your cautious optimism is appreciated! Upside >> downside
I think the answer is clear to that one but not so clear on the other one?
JHFH, any views please?
Just weighing up before I top up further??
Thanks
Thanks for the reply, I always think you have to look at both scenarios and the deal may not be signed, I genuinely hope it is as it will boost my portfolio considerably!!
GLA
I think the odds are massively in favour of a signed agreement.
Possibly however Eli could have some massive scandal and put a freeze on all new spending?
Or Trump could sign an executive order banning any work with companies registered in the UK?
I am 99% sure the agreement will be signed and signed soon but there is always a possibility. If its NOT signed sure expect a sharp immediate drop probably 1-3p on that day. But when you think about it Eli NOT signing would not be as bad as we think, CDX works, its already been proven that its good to go to Phase 1 trials so Eli are only going to walk away because they are forced too because if internal or financial issues.
This frees Hemogenyx from certain obligations, Eli Lilly have funded and done alot of the heavy lifting to bring CDX to this point, as such they are in line to get a huge discount when it comes to licencing agreements. If Hemo in-licenced CDX then the potential upside is massive.
It comes down to one question, what is CDX worth? It will be licenced with Eli Lilly but were it anyone else it would still be worth billions, there is plenty of rivalry out there J&J would LOVE to get one over on them and if Eli walked away they would be there with an open cheque book.
It would be so much difference if there was a risk of CDX failing but we are in a window where that just is not a possibility. Its been proven Pre-clinical to work and the next stage is clinical phase 1 trials, the question is just WHO brings it to clinical trials and how much of a cut Hemogenyx has to give up.
Seriously I would not have invested so much in Hemo if I was not uber confident :-)
JFH - Trump has many businesses in the UK, so doubt he’d do that. I do however see a risk regarding any joint or sole ventures from China and there are a lot of Biotech / Pharmaceutical and Medical companies with such ventures including Lilly. Imagine worst case this would be based around Country of Origin as would And must be declare on labelling for FDA, Medical Products/Devices etc.
always a risk here, however Vlad has built up a positive relationship with Lilly as mentioned in recent video.
JHFH - (Without a pharma background) I have to temper your commentary a bit. CDX has been proven it works to that point. There's a reason for clinical trials and the continuation thereafter. Question is what's the failure rate for a similar product from the point we are at currently. I have no idea but I shy away from everyone going slam dunk it absolutely works...the money's in the bank, let's all go on holiday. Does anyone have some stats to throw out on clinical trial failure rates etc?
Sorry when I say no chance of failure I mean no chance of failure before we go to human trials.
The licencing agreement with Eli to bring CDX to trials will be multi bag potential without any further testing.
The actual clinical trials could take years and that could lead to further multi bag potential down the line but for a 30m MCap company I am just talking about the licencing agreement.
Check out Motif Bio. They went all the way through to phrase 3 human trials and that got rejected. From 44p/share to bust. They also had self proclaimed expert rampes that posted constantly
That's the risk with any small pharma company. Monte Carlo or bust! None of us are experts in the pharma field, so just an educated guess based on our own research. Hemo has done relatively well to date... but always the risk that their solution is a failure.
In all fairness I think they are in a different league than Motif Bio, you just have to look at the quality of people HEMO have on board and their track records, I am not convinced you are comparing apples with apples on that one!!
It is a total nonsense comparing hemo to motif bio. First MTFB had one antibiotic that had already run into problems in clinical studies that they were trying to register in a sub population of renal impaired patients as they can not use vancomycin. There was nothing very exciting about the product or the he market- now compare that to the multiple ground breaking products that hemo are working on, the big pharma partners that obviously recognise the potential, the market size for each of the therapeutic areas they are going after : it is a totally different prospect- albeit none are currently in clinical stages and it could be several years before any are likely to be approved. Before that several years are up they will obtain commercial agreements with big pharma with milestone payments and the sums of those milestone payments will be multiples of the current market cap. I think hemo has a lot more to offer than mtfb
Clinical trials and actually getting any treatment to market where its generating revenues of 100s of Mil will take years.
Right now Hemo have proved that what they have works in pre-clinical and is good enough to take to clinical trials.
That is enough for Hemogenyx to multibag on licencing just from up fron payments, talking nonsense about it MIGHT fail at phase 3 is completely irrelevant.
If you are so heavily invested in Hemo as JHFH, you take off less days than the Vlad himself! I expect JHFH would be an instant centibillionaire if this ever booms to £1. He will be inviting all of us to his superyacht in Monte Carlo when it happens!
Look when you sit in front of your share holders and say we are very confidant that a deal will be done and you say that you are very happy with the results so far on any work you have done in a JV with a global company, the signs are very good. When that company says it has 5 Billion to effectively spend this year and more, why would they even think about walking away, It won’t happen. Not long now and we will all be in a better more secure place and let’s not forget the CDX licensing agreement is just one of many things that could propel the SP to a different level. GLA
And in addition to this, if you were not happy as a company with the progress and the partnership so far and you were thinking of walking away, why would you let Hemogenyx issue a RNS with the details of your company and that you are in a JV, if you wasn’t happy and this was discussed you would say no don’t let them tell the world that have collaborated with us. Roll on Monte Carlo!!!
I really think this 3month extension was only to work out and agree to the numbers etc.
Shaggy the extension was I am almost certain due to the Covid-19 lockdown and the closing of labs. Had Covid19 not struck no extension would have been required.
No doubt Eli want to be announcing the start of Phase 1 trials to coincide with the signing of the licencing agreement but they were all put on hold for months so you can understand the frustration.
Was it 2 weeks ago Eli announced they are resuming Clinical trials? You would imagine there was some backlog and existing trials will get moving first, IE new volunteers for existing trials before completly new trials. But that means they can now sign and announce scheduling of Phase 1 trials which up to now was out of their control.
Side note that Licencing agreement comes with a big upfront cash payment, yesterday Hemogenyx announced a sponsored program with University of Penn... Wonder where Vlad is planning to get the money to pay for that program from... hmm....