Member Info for bogyo

Anyone has the new Canaccord note: "Recapitalised and ready for liftoff" ?

You are correct Couerdelion, I missed that in the fully diluted structure. 520M it is.

Yet it is clear that management isn't aiming for a conservative 50/50 split; they are targeting a minority partner (20-30%), meaning CTL retains a massive 70% majority stake in Laguna Verde.

That shifts my short term targets, with a massive upside from the 5.5-6p here even at conservative valuation:

Noting, when warrants are exercised, they don't just dilute, they inject £9.2 Mil in cash.

In an exceptionally good offer only they would consider a majority give away and he slipped the 51% consideration. However their actual target seems to be aiming to give up only 20-30%, retaining a massive 70% to 80% of the project for CTL.

When you plug that into the 440M fully diluted share count, the valuation model shifts drastically. Retaining 70% means CTL keeps around £518M of the post-tax NPV to itself by the time of production. At that scale, hitting a 50p share price becomes highly achievable much earlier, likely right at the DFS stage based on a standard 0.4x P/NAV risk discount.

In the short term they also need to hit 10p-12p (20c AUD) to list on the ASX by the end of Q3. They aren't just passively hoping for a recovery over the next weeks they have to land a major catalyst to naturally double the share price from here.

They would not ne allowed to raise if the ratification news was known. On paper.

So this is also one of the main reasons the raise was probably pushed through early instead of risking waiting for the news spiking the sp and dropping the raise then probably at higher sp but risking running out of cash and the negotiation strength in finding the partner setup.

Instead you are fully funded in a strong position to push for a 50:50 JV which would multiply your value from here. And ratification news can drop anytime without a time pressure while they get on with progress.

I still believe it is well sorted and loaded up massively under the 6p value today, and signed up for the retail offer too hoping to get some of that if oversubscribed.

I wish they would do an IM soon because however I analyse this news, the company is in a much better and stronger position to negotiate with a potential partner than they were a week ago. The CEO can walk into those meetings next week and state: Our debt is 100% gone, our largest insiders just put up millions in fresh cash, EIA is fully funded, and we have the financial support to value our asset properly.

The visceral market reaction today is of course clinging onto the 6p dilution because it's hard to spot the details buried in multiple RNS alerts and 50 pages of text. Yes, it anchors the price near 6p for now and kills the immediate spike long-term holders wanted. We will also have to grind through a retail flipping around July. But any good news will eradicate these concerns quickly.

The fact that the II raise closed oversubscribed shows massive confidence in the next stages. For the mid term, this actually makes upcoming news spikes cleaner and more sustainable. The capital structure is completely clean, default risk is dead, and we are left with a fully funded, debt-free project developer ready to dual-list on the ASX.

And one of the most significant news is Regal 20.7% holding in the company, this is one of the strongest long-term bullish signals hidden within these announcements.

Regal Partners Limited (ASX: RPL) is a top-tier, specialist alternative investment manager headquartered in Sydney, Australia. They are a true powerhouse in the Asia-Pacific resources and small-cap space, managing over A$21 Billion (£11 Billion) in funds under management. They specialize heavily in hedge funds, credit, growth equity, and natural resources/commodities. In the small-cap mining sector, they are known for taking highly concentrated, strategic stakes in projects they believe have multi-decade, world-class potential. They are not transient day traders; they are deep-value, long-horizon alternative asset managers.

Regal chose to convert 100% of their principal, fees, and accrued interest premiums into 47.0 Million new ordinary shares at the 6p conversion floor.

Going from an 8.2% passive shareholder to holding 20.7% of the First Enlarged Share Capital shifts Regal from a standard fund investor into a true insider and corporate cornerstone. The absolute proof of how significant this shift is lies in the newly granted Board Appointment Right:

"As a result of Regal's substantial shareholding in the Company, the Company has agreed to grant Regal the right to appoint either a non-executive director of the Company or an observer to the board..."

When an asset manager managing A$21 Billion chooses to lock up over 63.7 Million shares in a tiny AIM micro-cap and take a formal, active seat on the Board, they are sending a definitive message to the market: they believe the underlying asset is heavily mispriced.

This II holding a 20% block provides massive fundamental stability.

Went through the numbers:

New Basic Share Capital: ~362.5 Million shares (up from 204.3M, including the placing, full retail offer, bookrunner option, chairman fee conversion, and CLN conversion).

New 9p Warrants Added: ~46.8 Million (issued on a 1-for-2 basis to fundraise participants).

New 6p Broker Warrants Added: ~6.3 Million (Fox-Davies' 7.5% fee structure).

New Management Options Added: ~19.9 Million.

This brings the New Fully Diluted Share Count to roughly 435.5 Million shares.

Compared to the 407.7M pool Fox-Davies used to set their 22p target, the total potential share pool has expanded by only ~6.8%. Because the dilution was kept under 7% on a fully diluted basis while simultaneously wiping out 100% of the company's debt and bringing in up to £5.3M in gross cash, the fundamental 22p–24p long-term target remains structurally intact. The mathematical target drops by a negligible 1p–2p due to the share expansion, but the fundamental de-risking completely balances it out.

Bringing Leo Koot onto the Board as an Ind NED and Chair is an exceptional corporate governance win. Koot is a heavy hitter in international natural resources. He was the President of TAQA Iraq (building multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects) and recently oversaw the €380 Million sale of Tulip Oil's Dutch gas portfolio.

The 19.9Mil management options:

The options are split into tranches and will only vest when these hard operational and market hurdles are met:

Board approval of a positive DFS for Laguna Verde.

Official receipt of the environmental permit (EIA).

Project finance debt/equity fully secured to commence construction ($748M CAPEX).

Commercial production officially declared.

The share price hitting 50 pence or above for 20 consecutive trading days.

This is a highly defensive, shareholder-aligned incentive plan. If the CEO fails to land a strategic partner or secure project financing, or if the stock fails to reach 50p, these options expire worthless. Management doesn't get a free ride; they only win if you win big.

50p guys.

50p

It is literally going straight up. Holding at all significant levels and just accepted the break above the weekly 200MA. Price ran far away from all daily averages already.

It is surprisingly bullish , but of course most still don’t see it.

Platform architecture, software-defined vehicle stack, centralized compute integration, scalable deployment, future functionality expansion

This aligns unusually well with the last interview with Paul’s comments.

A full green close day on the highest volume since February, and the second significant full green day in May on rising volume. This is building the strongest price action we’ve seen in years and the market is screaming at you exactly what it is.

Very good interview, gave far more useful clarity on the actual outlook, ramp-up and refinancing progress than the usual Proactive videos. Much more relatable here addressing investor questions directly. They should do more open discussions like this going forward.

It’s a strong move, good to see it finally. We haven’t really seen +20% days on this kind of volume unless it was a sharp drop on numbers, so that’s a positive change for a long time.

Historically this hasn’t been great at sustained sharp reversals either, so for this to stick, the underlying news flow will clearly support it.

Plenty of holders still underwater and likely looking for an exit at lower averages missing earlier chances, so these supplies will need to be worked through.

Breaking the 50 and 200 MAs in one move, closing the gap, and holding above 4p without intraday and intraweek rejection is a solid first step. Now it’s about acceptance, retesting, holding on these levels and moving forward.

It’s only day one. If it can build a higher low and eventually push through the 5p and 6p area, then you start talking about a real change.

For now, let’s see what the news actually delivers and how the market reacts. It’s definitely a step in the right direction.

I like his positive, cheery face every time he gives an interview, it almost makes me want to buy more.

But seriously, the guy comes across as very trustworthy, nothing like before. When he says something, it tends to happen. You can really notice this change compared to earlier years, and that’s also part of why this is now more investable.

$17.5m exclusivity payments (non repayable) - it is commercial funding with exclusivity, not an equity stake.

$47.5m convertible note with an all-in yield of 8%, inclusive of fees. This grows to roughly $60m at maturity. It’s a convertible loan, not an equity investment either.

May I remind you this exact news on 1 Dec marked the low around 4.6p and the stock went on to 3x within weeks. Even when the same setup presents itself, most won’t act.

Financial impact here is small, this is a legal noise with negative sentiment attached. Most likely outcome is a legal resolution, payment at some stage, and the issue fades.

Buy the noise if you understand what you’re holding.

LO was selling down since 2020. Since the last Dec24 dilution from 9.87% they went to 8.3% in Jul25, and 7.2% in March. LO is continuously selling into any rise or opportunity of news.

They also didn't bother to report Herald dropping from 4.4% to 3.62% . Or Gruppo Generali increasing from 5.5% to 6.3%.

It sits at the lowest range of correction point and a clear entry level. If you are in fear that is normal, it is what you should be feeling, shtn yourself, so you don't buy any. Guess why, and where it holds up? For me this is a no brainer buy, and I cut if it fails very close under at minimal loss. Unless it dies and gaps down tomorrow because nobody needs lith anymore, but thats just the risk I am taking on willing to lose.

Foxconn will join the MEM auto business.

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Mitsubishi-Electric-likely-to-sell-auto-parts-unit-stake-to-Foxconn/65887952

Lol, I am trying my best to maximise my efforts for a quick buck, lol. no, no long term holding I want, not money.

So it appears that an institutional investor sold into the rise. Good for them if they were simply looking for a quick gain. Remember the institutional investor who sold a large block into the rise last time? They ended up exiting too early.

The key point here is to maximise returns, and this does not appear to be the peak. The move has only just begun. If you have been holding for this long, this doesn’t look like an exit point yet, if anything, it still appears to be an entry point. I’m actually surprised it closed only this high, as the potential upside seems significantly greater. You are just lucky to get this opportunity here.