RE: A lack of understanding26 Jun 2026 15:44
Ok, you dont get to just count your ENTIRE unicorn target market, you dont, sorry but this is the real world and you need to join it. The FDA gave the nod for AVA6000 in Patients with Salivary Gland Cancer because treatments are extremely limited. This is great, but THAT is your target market, you dont just get to widen the net to EVERYTHING else just because you ramp about your targeted warhead that COULD help other indications, how many trials have been started and abandoned again???? NONE of those TAM are applicable because your not even remotely close, same as we are not close to curing alzhimers with CBR despite being told it COULD be used. We dont get to include that market you dont get to just say "ALLL OF ONCOLOGY!!!" You dont.
Is a cure worth more than treatment? SOMETIMES. Its true that BP make more money off chemo than CAR-T and would rather we dont cure anything, but with small indications they just dont cares so yea, your mouth cancer they would rather a cure, and its not even about that, its about protecting market share. If Eli had 60% of AML revenue with a recurring monthly treatment getting them 100m P/A and Jazz came along with a cure worth 50m P/A with no recurring reciepts? Then its in Eli's interest to buy and bury the cure. If AML is killing everyone i n3-6 months? There is no recurring revenue, the best treatment wins, there is nothing to protect.
So, yes your point about treat vs cure is a real one, but not here and not with Avacta. WE Hemo investors are backing a potential cure to replace.... a few rounds of chemo, does that make us a target for buy and bury??? MAYBE, but that still means you have to buy us. Avacta? with the salivatory gland cancer there are no real effective treatments, there is no market share to protect, if there are 2 treatments available for licence one a cure, no ongoing revenue but works, vs a treatment that stops progression? Both the same price to licence? BP is taking the cure, they wont pay for a treatment leaving a cure on the shelf for someone else to pick up.
Your sat there trying to educate us and the reality is its very very simple. Both Hemo and Avacta have a small candidate right now targeting a small pool of patients, both cancer, one is a cure the other a treatment, both worth lets say 1bn, both look promising and both available to licence. One belongs to a company worth 50m the other 350m.
Nothing here is complicated, our upside is massive in comparison, AND our measurability is much simpler, we can measure for MRD, we can test for destruction of blasts, survival past 6months is incredible for US. Avacta? your just slowing progression, monitoring is life long, more expensive.
Avacta IS fine. Like I said, invest if you want, but these 2 oppertunities are NOT comparable, the upside here dwarfs Avacta, that boat left a long time ago.