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"What are the implications of this for GKP?"
Not good by the looks of it as far as oil export participation but could be excellent when it comes to selling the oil locally. I'll be happy with $35 local realised price if @ max production capacity of 60 kbopd+
Best Regards ValueS
Thanks @ValueS and all those who share news.
So does this mean we should expect Kurdish Pipeline to be fully excluded?
What are the implications of this for GKP?
IF the old pipeline (Kirkuk-Baiji-Mosul-FK-Ceyhan) has been repaired (I believe most of the damage by DAESH was to the 2 pumping stations) then Baghdad will still have to use the FK Export Pumping and Metering Station as it’s the only one available to my knowledge.
As KRG claims the FK station is within their territory, how then will that use by SOMO be achieved - by force or by agreement?
Using force cannot be ruled out and is what is wanted by some hardliners in Baghdad, but may not be necessary at the end of the day.
Agreement will involve compromise by both sides.
The 2 Issues that I see both impinge on the APIKUR / PSC discussions and -arguments:
Grade/Blend Quality
Partly for reasons of national pride, SOMO wish to reinstate as closely as possible the old Kirkuk Blend (ca 32-33API, S=2.5%) and they will want to differentiate between their current 3 Basrah grades (Heavy, Medium, Light) and the reinstated K grade. SOMO will determine which grades and what volumes of each will make up that export blend.
Flow Volume
The main SOMO inputs will be from the Avanna, Bai Hassan and Kirkuk formations and, assuming that a proportion (one third?) of that output will be earmarked for the Baiji refining complex for local refined product sale, we could be talking about flowing volumes from the South in that pipeline of ca 300 - 350Mbopd.
As the Ceyhan pipeline capacity is currently probably no more than 450-500Mbopd, full capacity utilization is therefore one of the factors that could be discussed by SOMO & KRG.
However, 500 – 350 only equals 150Mbopd (contribution by KRG) and that would be a big blow for the KRG/MNR – and for the local KRG producers hoping for unfettered export access.
Don’t get too excited…
Only the dumbest muppet would believe that was a question. What a muppet.
Not you DBSU. ;0)
It's wonderful to see the rise in SP from all the excitement today - gives a preview of how this may pop once the dust settles!
In my previous messages I considered whether the soon-to-be-repaired alternative "Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline" would be used to a) supplement the Kurdish pipeline, or b) outright replace it, leaving KRG seriously undermined.
My premise is that it makes perfect strategic sense to circumvent Krudistan altogether if possible (and as we are reading, it is possible), thereby undermining their economic and thus political autonomy. This seems to be happening.
What I would like to know is how GKP would fare if the new reality is closer to Option B (Kurdish pipeline ignored; all oil must go through newly repaired and ICG/SOMO-controlled Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline).
Dohuk to Kirkuk is a 3 hour drive give or take...
What are everyone's thoughts about the operational and financial implications for GKP, if this turns out to be the case?
Up 5% a moment ago. All over the place
Yes.
"Do they have to pay it to the owner of the shares?"
That's got to be about the dumbest question I've seen here for quite some time
Itsaponzi While I do enjoy some banter at your expense I can’t continue today as my location is 6 hours ahead of the U.K.
it’s also my wedding anniversary and I’m off to dinner with my wife and children where I’ll spend some of the profit I made today,as mentioned in real time @126 ‘ flip back here, ‘ while you have spent your day hovering in the hope that we all lose money. Sick.
PS I do hope that you’ll be right for a change because 90p would be another opportunity to make some money.
I wonder what would happen if there is a surprise dividend to those who have shorted GKP? Do they have to pay it to the owner of the shares?
Ponzi has no plan B, nor A,C,D or E
Just a nappy and a whisky infused dummy.
Ponzy, do you have a plan B?
You might be very self confident, but do you ever think over the to do list in case all of a sudden things go to the opposite of your origilnal belief? Swing trading works well, until it works
It's just a matter now of when it happens , the small jump today will shake a few out and the drop back allow the scummy shorters a better exit price as one of these days it wont be a false dawn.
Fingers crossed this sorry mess is soon over.
Now lower than open
Roger the dodge a 11p drop from its high is a classic P&D and gkp will end down today !! The trend is down from here 90s incoming this week at some point??
Itsaponzi clearly hovering in the hope of a downturn so he / she can ‘get a dig in’ at a strangers expense for some unknown reason, but look at the GKP share price, it’s still up when you predicted 90 p revised to 110 The vast difference in trades today massively favour buys although as I mentioned I sold my day trade +15% and I doubt that you’ve made a penny. No doubt related to a poor education. Lesson two. Too as in too many and not to as in going to.
o dear what has happened to genel !! gkp will obviously follow now . i hope not to many got spiked today .
same **** with gkp just a different day and know one ever learns here .
Use the pipeline and earn $90 a barrel instead of $25.
Who gives a toss about $6?
Don't know very weird trading at GENL but I've added!
GENL is furthest away from Kirkuk. DYR.
Whats going on in GENL? Shouldnt the two move more or less simlilarly?
Yes it’s early Itz and while I’ve made my day trade at the top of today’s price, the retreat should have been expected because day traders will often behave in the manner of Lemmings. Given patience we’ll get to 200 and beyond.
If the retreat is related to the possibility of Kurdistan being bypassed via a revamped pipeline I’m reminded that the Northern Iraq oil that was previously exported via Kurdistan amounted to 100k barrels to thereabouts and the articles are estimating 300k and where do they get more Northern oil. I’ve no idea myself as I’m a simple share trader ( gamer by name and nature. )
But if Turkey agree to one pipe why not the other.
Roxi it's early yet
OK but not very timely, this is another article on the subject 6 days ago
https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/pipeline-repairs-raise-prospect-of-alternate-turkey-export-route-46408/