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Exactamundo.
Q
@ProfQ "Obviously I'd love the MRE to be 20 million oz and the effect to be 5p per million, and the same at Scallywag."
Wouldn't we all, LOL. With more to come at Goliath and Panorama, right?! Always plan conservatively when possible and be pleasantly surprised.
My $530 could well be wrong!
I have been using 3p per million oz as a guide to my target setting for a while. On here a few months ago the discussion seemed to suggest that as a fair rule of thumb. I know POG has risen a lot recently but I will err on the side of caution and stick to the 3 for now.
If we get an MRE of 7 million oz that gives us lots of potential for a rise from here, plus whatever turns up at Scallywag.
I really think that it is Scallywag and the other prospects which will push us higher.
Obviously I'd love the MRE to be 20 million oz and the effect to be 5p per million, and the same at Scallywag. I am trying to temper my expectation though.
Hi Jerryspaniel. Good call on Discovery, has raised my capitol. ATB Speedy
Hi Hopefully. Ok thanks, so not directly relevant to GGP.
Re Discovery, I guess a few people just listen to Sprott over the weekend.... Eric has doubled his money since he participated in the cash raising.
Think it might be down a lot today.......
@Hopefully, a sharesave scheme is a tax-advantaged employee benefit. It's not available to ordinary shareholders.
Hi Jerryspaniel, I wasn't suggesting. It's what happened at RR. It was called a sharesave scheme. Each month we had an amount deducted from our wages. After five years I was allocated the shares and it became taxfree. After seven years I think it was worth 15% more. I don't know the mechanics of how it was constructed. It was before ISA's. On another note Discovery were up 35% yesterday. :-)
Hopefullygold, I am not sure I am getting this. Are you suggesting that GGP could issue non fungible shares that wouldnt be tradeable for a fixed period of time? If you are, I think that would be incredibly complicated, difficult to administer and very dangerous for the buyer.
@ProfQ
"I think if we use 3p per million oz at Havieron to work out the value then that assumes the gold to be worth about $530 per oz. That's divided by the fully-diluted number of shares, 4,206,000,000. That would mean 14p suggests about 4.6 million oz now."
3p * 4.2 Bln shares = £126 million (after 30% Aus tax)
£126 million after tax = £180 million before tax
£180 million for 1 moz Au = £180 / oz
£180 oz = about $235 (USD) / oz
Either your $530 is wrong or I've done something stupid.
Personally I think the 1 moz = 3p/share formulation is pretty conservative. I don't know how much the JV will have to pay NCM for the toll processing, and that (whatever it is) has to be included in the AISC for Hav, as does the transport to Telfer. I think those expecting AISC below $200 are overly optimistic. But given the POG, I still think 1 moz is likely worth more like 5p per GGP share. If so, and we get an MRE in excess of 5 moz, it's easy to see where this would be going, especially since the MRE won't include everything.
Jambo, I am afraid I dont understand your point. ALL dividends affect the share price.
Good post Mush but don't crack just yet
We need further news updates and
some serious buying to enable the SP to progress.....
Hopefullygold said:
'£3 a share in five years in which case I'll buy mushroom some furry dice to hang from his rear view mirror. £5 a share and I'll get lady mush one of those nodding dogs that were so popular in the 70's.'
At those prices I'd be prepared to listen to the whole album of KTel's 1976 24 Great Truck Drivin' Songs.
In the meantime, let's breech 14p. Come oooooon you sluggard price! Even I, the bastion of patience, having once watched a whole ITV comedy series waiting for a laugh, am beginning to crack under the pressure.
All depends where the price of gold is once mining stars or even end of year for mre https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-8612747/The-coronovirus-gold-rush-Londons-precious-metals-miners-soar.html
£3 a share suggests a market cap of £10billion. Fresnillo is currently £9.5billion with 5 operating mines in Mexico. For perspective.
Jerryspaniel - good morning. We had a thunderstorm in Almeria last night and knocked out everything including the net, wonderful! Good thing it's freshened things up. On topic the shares I bought had to be held for a minimum if 5 or seven 7 years before being released into the market. From memory I purchased @ £1.15 and sold for £2.30 ish circa £24k return. If I had held until 3 years ago £13 a share. Hey ho. If Greatland can hold off a take over then I can envision £3 a share in five years in which case I'll buy mushroom some furry dice to hang from his rear view mirror. £5 a share and I'll get lady mush one of those nodding dogs that were so popular in the 70's.
3p risked and was 4.7 mil and unrisked 25-28 p from memory, so 5-6p per mil :)
I think if we use 3p per million oz at Havieron to work out the value then that assumes the gold to be worth about $530 per oz. That's divided by the fully-diluted number of shares, 4,206,000,000. That would mean 14p suggests about 4.6 million oz now.
Obviously that ascribes no value to Scallywag or anything else. My opinion is that there's more gold than 4.6 million oz at Havieron, and maybe it's worth more than $530 per oz given the comparatively low capex requirement.
It's what turns up at Scallywag that will really change things, and what sort of farm-in can be agreed. Exciting.
mercedesman,
Yes I tend to agree, $400 for now and pushing into $500 as gold rises in the short term.
Chester, can i just make the point (in a friendly way) that calculating Havierons value based on $250 an oz now is mad. We knew that it would be $150-$300 an oz when POG was at $1600
Anything under $400 an oz now is bonkers if you ask me.
With processing in place and bulk/stoping mining techniques to be used, Havieron will have one of the highest margins among the mining scene.
Just wait, i think everyone is hugely underestimating the value thats about to be disclosed.
Jerry
A cash or scrip optional dividend would be fine as would not effect the SP.
Any shares issued in lieu of a cash dividend would be equal to the cash that GGP would retain so in terms of the companies value they cancel each other out.
They don't need to raise capital for Havieron regardless. If you look how Newcrest operate their other assets with toll processing, they pay their partner profits after processing fees.!
If they need to raise funds then they have block build then placing and or warrants either way GH is a qualified moneyman and knows exactly how to raise funds.
Hi Stebol
I realise we currently own more of Havieron but you can't borrow against something that is 100% not going to be yours in 12 months. The 30% is ours and if Newcrest want that extra 5% it will cost them top dollar. So I'm just stating exactly what is ours to do a deal on.
Lebugue-Addick I agree it could be SI Capital but GH will have options so if they want to be the backers, their offer will have to be as good as the competition.
SI Capital shouldn't believe its in the bag, that's not good business.
Chester.
chester - " GH will already know who he will want to deal with". The appointment of Joint Corporate Brokers and Financial Advisers to the Company with immediate effect as notified in RNS 30 July was very revealing I believe. Berenberg and Hannam & Partners will work alongside the Company's existing Corporate Broker, SI Capital.
chester - once the MRE is published we'll still own 60%.
That won't change until PFS next year.
What it will do is give us an early-ish indication of the size of the resource and potentially its value
Once the MRE is published by Newcrest that will mean GGP can use their 30% as a capital asset and use it to agree a bank loan or go to a venture capitalist.
If we take the MRE as 8.5m ounces and give the gold in the ground a value of $250 an ounce that will mean GGP's 30% will be an asset worth [ 2,500,00 m ounces x $250 = $ 637,500,000 ]. That value can be placed against a loan and GH will already know who he will want to deal with. Lets not rule out the possibility of overtures coming from another mining giant or two.
So current money in the bank is for prospecting and our 30% of the MRE is our VIP ticket to the joint Havieron Mine.
Chester.