Member Info for TakingMyTime

Gold miners, and especially those without a long track record and massive reserves, are volatile. I personally don't believe in going into them if you have a relatively short-term horizon when you expect to sell before long. They can go up and they can go down, in the near term.

That said, I fully expect within 3-6 months and maybe much sooner, to see this well over 7 quid, and maybe as high as 9-10. There will be bounces down along the way, though. If I had a near term horizon I think I'd be selling on one of the spikes up and not try to maximize return. I'd probably be looking for something near 8. I think if we hit 8 that there will be some profit-taking which may drop it down again so I might move if we get back into the 7.80s.

I don't think there's anything wrong. We make our money selling gold and gold has dropped. There are also probably people who got caught up in the rapid runup in SP over the last year who pushed it up a little beyond what the market is really ready for, and so we have a correction after an awesome bull run. The correction is likely to have run its course soon (it may have already hit bottom) and the upward trend to start again. It's what markets do, especially on volatile shares.

I know people are excited about beating the top end of guidance but I believe that was already mostly priced in to the SP. Anyone could look at earlier results and see that Shaun under promises and over delivers, and yet the possibility of beating the top end was mentioned previously. I knew we'd beat the top end and I suspect most people knew that. If we're smart enough to know that, then the big money guys are, too. So all holders (small and big) are happy with these results but no one is really much surprised, so no one is dumping loads of money into their investment in GGP to buy more because of this. It's good, it's a building block, it means we're well on track for this to surge when gold surges, but these results, by themselves, are good enough to make us happy but not good enough to cause a huge market move.

It's possible that M&A activity in the sector could push us a little higher. The things that will really push us higher are big moves up in the price of gold and nice increases in our reserves / resources. The first is likely by the end of the year, IMO. The second is also very likely.

I'm guessing we'll see a surge to 8 quid or just short of it, a drop from profit taking, and then another surge higher. I don't expect there will be long to wait for those things, but I could be wrong.

All in my opinion only and do your own research.

@Bamps, don't filter, don't respond. Report. They need to be banned and their posts removed. It's the only way it stops.

Everyone else should report it when you see it, too.

@speedy / panama

My goal in old money was £1, too. But that was pre-Telfer. I tentatively plan to take some profit at that level just because the one-asset thing will be growing out of control. But I think it has a lot more to run beyond that. Of course, the world may change in some unexpected way by the time we get there but most of the things that could change are likely to make gold much more valuable, not less.

Hi, Panama. Thirty five pounds wasn't a serious prediction (though I do seriously think it could happen)!

It was a non-serious response to a ludicrous poster.

But I continue to be bullish. To my thinking, twenty pounds is locked on by 2030 and very possibly much sooner. And I won't be selling out at that level, either.

Good luck!

"Ggp will go to 350 just question of time"

It's possible, if there's a 10:1 split after we hit 35 quid.

I believe this will be viewed positively by the markets but not viewed as a huge update.

For those who know, I believe it's massive. Extends mine life significantly. Doesn't include WDU. There's no way Telfer dies before Hav is ready.

We pretty much knew that but now the market can see it. Over time, institutional analysts are going to look at this and say, "Yeah, this is a winner." It won't all happen at once. I do believe we are likely to see ten quid before the end of the year. If gold goes where I think it might, we might see twelve quid. Or more. DYOR.

@E1, I believe it is almost certainly either your #1 or #2. If #3, the only reason I can see that someone would do that is if they had inside information, and in that case, it's large enough to surely catch attention but not large enough to get sufficiently rich to make the risk worth it. In other words, it would be an idiot. And most people who have those kinds of funds to invest aren't idiots.

We'll likely never know, though. And I don't see how it would affect anyone's decision making if we did know. It's an interesting one and not something you see every day, for sure. I think it probable you've covered the possibilities.

"This will add further amounts to US debt."

A drop in the bucket. $87 billion is under five percent of the annual US budget deficit. Just with normal daily spending and annual tax receipts, they overspend that much every 17.5 days, on average. The debt markets won't even notice this one.

Speedy, I would always encourage monetising a cat, whether there is a good place to invest the proceeds or not. It might cost you a girlfriend, but if she has a cat, is she really worth it? This is a more important question than many things discussed here, IMO.

That's fair, Jonno, and gets a recommend from me. But there are good investments, lucky investments, and those that are both good and lucky. I believe this was in the third category for me. Based on listening to credible evidence, and a bunch of research of my own, I made a good investment. You are right, we can take credit for that. Then, I also got lucky, pure dumb luck!

Just another company? Well, let's list some things. Another company might have one or two of these but few have them all.

A management team that consistently delivers, and usually over delivers, on its promises.

Abundant cash on hand to develop its next project, with cash pile growing, providing agility for management to respond to opportunities that arise.

Significant financial backing if opportunities arise.

An apparently large asset (OC) which isn't built into broker projections and probably not really into the market price. (We don't know how much it is worth or how it will be monetized but it's not nothing.)

Strong evidence that the largest undeveloped asset is probably significantly better than current market evaluations. (probable, not certain, of course)

Strong evidence that the older, operating asset probably has significantly greater expansion possibility and value than current market evaluations. (again, probable, not certain)

The only plant geographically well-positioned to take advantage of highly prospective exploration opportunities nearby, creating the potential for lucrative JVs or other opportunities with nearby companies.

Other potentially lucrative exploration opportunities to expand the asset base and operations (and funds on hand to pursue such things, unlike many).

A primary product that, despite a recent correction, has more than doubled in price in the last 30 months, and given the macro-economic environment around the world, has a very good chance of going much higher.

A secondary product that, despite a recent correction, has almost doubled in price in the last 30 months, and has industrial uses that are likely to only increase.

That's different from most companies. There are many things there that aren't guarantees but there are a lot of things that could put a rocket under this share price, and it's not very likely that none of them will pan out.

As to research. Each investor must make his own decision as to how strong the possibility of some of those things is. That involves things like forming an understanding of the macro situation and its impact on the price of gold, evaluating the geology and drill reports to form an opinion on the likelihood of the resource / reserve growing, an opinion on the management, an opinion on how Wyloo might respond to different situations, an assessment as to how banks might respond in certain circumstances, an assessment as to whether dividends are likely, when, and how that fits your own investment needs, an assessment as to how the market might respond to different things. Figure out your view on all that, throw it all together, and make a decision. Yes, research matters.

Or you can skip all that, just believe what someone else says, and go with it. Lots of people do that. It often works out for them. I'd rather know the possibilities, upsides, and risks before I put money on the line.

@Ben, hope you are well these days. Wanted to respond to this.

"Luck or skill? I’m a believer you create your own luck in this world!"

Any luck that was created was created by a top management team that looked for opportunities and used them well. I don't believe I created any of it. I did look at drilling results and useful info from the sky from Paddy to come to the belief that this was a good gamble. That showed itself to be true. And I did hold tight through some down times. Probably would have been better off if I'd done more trading but I always believed it would turn upward and didn't want to miss that, so I just held my core holding.

I don't think that I really created any of my luck on this, though. The Newcrest / Newmont thing and the giveaway of Telfer was just pure, dumb luck for me. This was always likely to be a good investment without that, but that's what's made it beyond good. I've been very lucky and I think all LTHs have been. I'm not smart enough to make that kind of luck.

ATB

Hi, panama, doing great, thanks for asking!

I'm not counting on steady rises, miners tend to bounce around, but it's going to have a lot more ups than downs, that's for sure. Yes, we've been very fortunate. ATB to you!

A down trend in gold will not kill this share. If we keep finding more gold, the SP will trend up even if gold has a short or medium term down trend. But even if we don't, a down trend is always temporary and the smart money knows gold must go up. This share can only drop so far because that gold in the ground has a future value that the smart money will always recognize.

Here's one of the first rules of investing. If something HAS to go up, it eventually will. Investing in that something that has to go up will pay off eventually if you have the time and patience to wait.

Voters don't have the political will to balance budgets. So governments can't balance budgets, isolated exceptions to the contrary. So deficit spending must go on, unless someone can find the miracle drug to drop in the water that gives voters economic sense.

If deficit spending goes on, inflation must go up and so gold will go up. It's inevitable. There may be peaks and valleys along the way, and if you have the courage, you can trade those and make lots of money. But over the long term, gold will go up. It must.

If gold must go up, gold producers are a winning investment. There may be quicker ways to get rich but they may have risk, too. Gold producers will always be affected by the current price of gold, but also by the expected future price of gold.

I can wait and I have the patience to do so. I'll trade to try to speed things along but that's only because I can afford the risk. Mostly, I'll just hold. Because gold must go up, so gold producers must go up, too. Well-run ones like this will go up more than most.

A CEO should never answer that question. Let's say he thinks it is 15 quid, just pulling a number out of the hat.

If someone offers 14, after talking to shareholders, he may find that the big shareholders want to accept it. So, 14 quid is the price, based on what holders will accept. But maybe they won't. He goes back and says, "That's not enough." They offer 16. Win. But if he's said 15, they won't offer 16. He's put a lid on the price.

What if there's a bidding war? Again, he's put a lid on the price. People might go over his price if they really want it but not by much. Why would he do that?

His job is to maximise our value, and you don't do that by tipping your hand.

"Obviously a lot of people who are trading though don't you think"

Exactly. Sitting on my core holding, playing around a little with trading for fun and greed (though I haven't in the last few weeks and missed the bottom near six quid, silly me).

Some aren't trading, though. To each his own. Who cares? Wouldn't think of trading with my core holding, though.

I'm personally high on GOLDEN ORBIT.

"But I can’t see anything, until Telfer comes online, or maybe something on Ocallaghans, to drive it up or down short term.

Others’ views, with reasons, appreciated."

Define short term. In my view, anything less than a year is short term. Possible drivers in addition to what you mentioned:

1. Surge in gold price. (No guarantee that happens in the short term, of course, but it's inevitable before long.)

2. Resource upgrades (volume) at Telfer, Hav, or both.

3. Resource upgrades to reserves.

4. Nearology, a neighbor striking big and finding something that's likely to come through Telfer.

5. Good news from EG.

Not counting on anything from 4-5 but could happen. #1 and #3 both seem particularly likely to happen sometime in the next year and probably before the end of calendar year 2026. IMO.

Thanks, Jerry. My hands are numb from sitting on them, but I can't eat with them stuck there so I keep losing weight, which makes them less uncomfortable. It's an ongoing process. :)

JeremyJV is spamming that all over the forum. Best to ignore.