Please send me two things, your girlfriend's 1) pic and 2) phone number. If I like the first I'll use the second to give her advice and relieve you of part of this terribly heavy burden you are bearing.
Always glad to help a friend.
Hi, Tom. You are right about Numis. Hannam & Partners did, too.
It's not locked on that we'll get anything new out of NCM this week, but I suspect they are waiting until after that. Since it could drop any day, and since it could move the market when it does, it would be foolish for anyone to be playing trading games on this one -- you wouldn't want to be out of it when the broker note comes.
They could do that. But their clients who follow their advice won't be pleased if they get it badly wrong, and significant news may be coming very, very soon.
Their goal for a broker note is not to make GGP private investors happy, their goal is to look good to their clients.
It's an interesting one, because if they come out before NCM, and get it right, they could look really good to their clients.
I think it is likely to GGP's benefit if they come out after the NCM meeting. I expect discussion of Hav at that meeting to give a boost that will take out any resistance and squeeze any shorts that are lurking, and if a broker note follows soon after, it could become a momentum thing.
1. Who's roasting the board? Trying to understand why they are doing what they are doing isn't roasting them, it's research.
2. We're in a JV with NCM on one project. Our interests align beautifully on Hav but there's no reason to follow their interests outside of Hav unless there is again alignment.
Bamps started an interesting discussion here on why/how the current plan fits our interests. It's a great question and topic for discussion -- maybe someone will figure out the answer.
Hi, Bamps. "Why are they leaving it to after Scallywag?"
It's a good question. I don't know why NCM would be more interested in a Scal JV as opposed to a Saddle Reef JV, though. Not much cover at Scal but also not much at Saddle Reef, it appears. Goliath isn't quite as close to Telfer, so perhaps that explains that one. Maybe proximity to Hav means the possibility of shared infrastructure?
If you hit bit at Scal, it probably makes sense to build a railway or conveyor to Telfer. Obviously, that wouldn't come into play at the other sites.
@Paddy "personally I will be happy if the Hannam figures of 4.5Moz are proven up. It obviously depends on how much more drilling that NCM want to do before they declare."
I agree. But this is something I'm starting to wonder about -- don't they already have enough to have an MRE of 4.5 moz? They've got to be close. Why are they waiting to declare? Are they going for a 'knock-your-socks-off' MRE? Are they trying to negotiate acquiring all (or more) of Hav from us and holding off from an MRE until that's done for some reason? (Obviously in this case they'd be disclosing everything to our BOD.)
I'm just curious as to what the trigger will be for the MRE. Do they have a specific target amount they want to have proved up? And if so, how was that determined?
Maybe only the NCM and GGP BOD know the answers.
LOL, well done, MFU.
Agree with schlemiel, though, it's legit for discussion. If people are nervous about it, there are good answers to their nervousness. I'd hate anyone to sell just because the topic was ruled out of bounds. But surely it's all been answered now.
We ought to get BR to put something about options, shares, and why executives might sell them, on ggphelp.
"Why do you think most forums have a director's buy and sell notice board. Certainly not to check out for good governance."
Actually, that's exactly what it's for, is for good governance.
"I have no problem with your analysis concerning options versus salary, provided they are commensurate - which in this case they are, but I'm rather old fashioned and don't like seeing executives receiving excess rewards until such time as a company is fully established, profitable and has attained it's goals."
True. I'd say we have attained two of our most important goals -- 1) we've found a whopping big gold/copper deposit 2) we've successfully negotiated an arrangement which is virtually certain to result in its monetisation. Seems highly appropriate for GH to begin to collect some of that reward, and as you noted, it's not been excessive.
Perhaps it helps to see the options as a combination of salary deferral and performance bonus. He's really only cashed in the salary deferral portion, IMO.
@Jambo You can do the checking yourself (annual report, RNS since) but I believe what I've posted covers all options which have been announced to the market. If there are other incentive options which haven't been announced (I think they'd have to be) or which I've missed (not impossible), they could presumably have different terms (if they exist).
"It’s not a good sign when people with inside info start selling their shares whoever they may be"
No. Just no.
It's a good sign when executives choose options instead of cash for a significant portion of their compensation. It's good governance to put a vesting period on options. And it's a good sign that the compensation plan is working as intended when the executives exercise those options after the vesting period and occasionally sell some of those shares.
Seems like some people would be happier if instead GH were paid a larger salary and were depleting the company's coffers. That's the alternative. We only have a company because the compensation was done this way. Otherwise, there wouldn't have been the money to drill Hav.
1. GH has, I believe, 4 million remaining options at 2.0p which are fully vested (could exercise at any time).
2. He also has 9 million at 2.5p and 9 million at 3.0p which are not vested yet. They were due to be vested on 25 September this year but the vesting was extended to 5 July 2021 (RNS 14/07/2020). CB had the same number of options which were also extended at the same time.
3. All options immediately vest at a change-of-control event (merger/acquisition) and so would be eligible to fully partake in any such event just like other shares.
I believe CB has 14 million fully vested at 2.0p, expiring September 2022, as well as the ones I mentioned above.
Also on CNN and other sources. Returning to country-specific advisories. Here's the UK one:
Exercise of options and sell of shares was carried out the same day, undoubtedly done as a joined up decision, and reported concurrently. It's odd to separate them and put the option exercise first in your calc (especially since the options weren't eligible for trading until later).
I don't see it that way. I'd say that his transactions that day and since have reduced his shareholding by 1.25 million out of 75 mln (<2%), or his total share entitlement (including in-the-money options) by 6.25 million out of over 100 mln (about 6%).
But we're largely into semantics, I guess. As you state, it doesn't at all call into question the case for investing here.
@mushroom / Tig "There will be a drinks bill to foot and it didn't escape my attention Tig that you were £30 out of pocket last time. GH is probably coming over to redress that together with giving a breakdown of all the bills he paid to justify the audacious sale of 0.0000001% of his shares. We shareholders must be appeased!"
We are now confronted with certain inescapable facts.
1. Long term contributors to this board expect GH to bribe them to be content with his financial dealings.
2. They know that he thinks they can be appeased with a few drinks.
3. They are tacitly acknowledging that they really can be bought for that price.
4. The same accusation is also laid by them against Panama, Fred16, and Jerry. (And perhaps speedy, though with a caveat that probably excludes him.)
So there you have it. Rather troubling. GH can plunder the company and as long as he buys these select individuals a few drinks....
Starting the weekend early again.