Member Info for TakingMyTime

@moon "So our team Have managed To actually get sophisticated Help"

I am very happy for you. It's been evident for some time that you need sophisticated help.

I don't know whether or not things have progressed beyond what anyone can help with, but it's good to at least try, and good to acknowledge that you need help. I wish you all the best with it.

"The transaction, valued at $475 million" To be fair, it ended up being a lot more than that by the time they sold their Greatland shares.

They beat their goal. Originally, they said they wanted to raise $2B through their divestment process and by the middle of last year they said they expected to raise $3B. If they had a chance to do it again, they'd be looking for more and certainly would have negotiated Wyloo's option to buy their final stake at a higher price. But this was a win for them in terms of what they set out to accomplish, even if they'd have had a bigger win if they kept it.

Pension funds and insurance companies will still buy bonds. Regulations would have to change massively for that to change.

@GGPThruandtru "Havieron IS the jewel in the crown"

Another great post. Telfer helps us pay for Hav. That was the plan all along, that Telfer would buy us the time (and some of the money) to not rush it, to go through the entire process and planning and get it right, and do so in a cost-effective way rather than throwing extra money around to expedite things.

The only thing "wrong" about the plan was that there's more gold at Telfer than we knew (even if Shaun and team had a pretty good guess about it). So that means we don't have to borrow for Hav and we have way more time than we need. Telfer completely pays for Hav and makes us a really nice profit beyond that, so that we'll all do well even before Hav comes along. Telfer gives us a good investment, Hav will make us rich.

@speedy "Physical gold and GGP are at either end of the risk spectrum. "

This was a great post. GGP is great for creating wealth. Physical gold has the potential to create wealth as more people buy it for defensive purposes, pushing the supply / demand equation to drive the price up. But it's primarily about safety / defensive investing, over the long term. You've captured that well. For retirees who don't need income, it's likely the best wealth preserver there is.

Hi, Speedy. If a retiree doesn't need income, you are right about gold. If they need regular income to pay the bills / put food on the table, relying solely on gold leaves them vulnerable to a very volatile asset. Gold will always be a good investment but also always volatile.

@speedy You are right, of course. But I expect to see double-digit inflation (or higher) within a few years, and inflation-indexing will at least cushion that somewhat. I just don't see any other reasonable option for those who need fixed-income.

The main drivers of the bond market are the conventional wisdom that says people should move more and more into bonds as retirement approaches (in a normal world, that would be true, but we aren't in normal times) and the regulatory requirements placed on pension funds and insurance companies to hold a significant percentage of capital in "secure" assets like sovereign bonds. Those institutions and those retirees (or near retirees) are likely to be hurt very badly when inflation explodes. PMs are relatively safe but don't provide income, and those market participants need income.

I had a brief conversation a few months back with Jerry in which I mentioned oil majors. You can find it under either my history or his. There was always going to be some catalyst to come along (I didn't expect it so soon). Retirees who are looking for inflation protection and safety would do well to look for that kind of asset, though oil majors may be expensive right now, I think. In the long run, inflation is likely to push the oil price higher, and it provides the regular income retirees often need.

Gold is an even better inflation hedge and miners can provide income but miner dividends can be very volatile, which isn't ideal for retirees as a major part of their portfolio. It's fine for those who aren't seeking regular income, though.

The only bonds I would remotely consider at this point would be inflation linked bonds, whether gilts or TIPS. Both currencies are likely to get hit hard sometime before bonds would mature but the inflation indexing would at least cushion that blow, and for well-off retirees looking for safe fixed income, that's the only thing that really makes any sense.

There's no way the bull market in gold ends this year. There may be a major correction but I don't see any political will on either side of the Atlantic to curb deficit spending in any significant way. It's only going up, that will drive inflation, and real assets are the only reliable protection against that. Real assets including PMs but also energy producing assets like oil and uranium, and (dare I say it) food-producing assets (cue moonie, LOL). Whatever happens, people have to eat, and high inflation will drive food prices higher.

The only risk to gold is a world wide depression such that PIs can't buy it and have to sell what they have to live. It will still be a valuable asset to hold in such a scenario and the price will probably be higher than most other assets in relative terms, but the price of gold could plummet in that scenario. We could see something like that happen sometime in the next ten years but I don't see it as imminent.

@Vic "I'm sure he has the support team. If not then if it is to much for him, that's a weakness none of us shareholders want to see. Thanks for bringing this up"

Occasionally you post something worthwhile. This was one. I'm not saying SD should be prioritizing OC, but lack of capacity to prioritize it is easily solvable -- hire good people to do so. We have the cash and the team that top people would want to work with.

To successfully run a business, you have to prioritize, always. Especially when you have cash, you have opportunities. Few (if any) of us have sufficient insight into everything going on to really know whether Shaun should be prioritizing OC, either to develop it or sell it. But I'm quite sure that if he doesn't have the resources to do that at his disposal, he can get them.

I'm quite happy to have him not prioritize it if that's his / the board's decision. The tungsten is safely buried and not going anywhere. The price of tungsten is only likely to go up. So kicking this down the road a year or three or five may be the best long term move.

@HungryBadger I've reported your post starting with "The Paulpatriot name". We'll find out if there are still moderators here.

@E1 I admit to not fully understanding why Genesis has the P/E they have. I do know that most of our reserve is "probable" rather than "proven" and I suspect that's a factor that's holding back some institutional investors.

We saw what happened with our recent resource upgrade. The big driver from here is not FCF (the team has already proven they can produce that and it's somewhat priced in) but resource upgrades and the coming surge in the price of gold. More resource upgrades=higher SP. The market knows this team can get it out of the ground efficiently.

P/E is only one indicator. Compare the resource / reserves of Northstar and Evolution to Greatland, and you'll see at least part of the reason why our P/E is lower. We aren't even close. They both own far more confirmed gold in the ground than we do. We might be doing a very, very good job of getting the gold out of the ground and turning it into cash but until we bridge that gap the market will be cautious.

LOL. Thanks, tremyd, spot on.

@spud, yes, I should have clarified. This is unlikely to affect GGP negatively in any significant way. It is, however, likely to affect some other producers in a way that is likely to increase Cu prices.

The Greatland story is likely to continue to be largely about gold but copper is a really nice plus for us as well, so higher copper prices matter.

Https://www.mining.com/web/china-moves-to-ban-sulfuric-acid-exports-as-iran-war-hits-supply/

This can impact those prices.

LOL. JD just outed himself as ProfessorStax.

"No...I was responding to this from Droverman and the conversation eveloved..."

JD responds to me and says that, when I was addressing PS. JD never responded to Droverman in this thread, he WASN'T responding to Droverman. But PS certainly DID respond to the comment from Droverman that JD cited.

Look at the thread, it's very clear. PS is all over it, including responding to that comment from Droverman. JD has only one comment in the thread, and that's addressed to Doozer, until he gets his identities mixed up when responding to me, and responds with his JD identity to me when I was interacting with PS.

Busted yourself. On display for all to see. Playing games with two identities. You'll need to go get two different ones now, because anyone can see what you did here. LOL.

You know, if your ideas are any good, you don't have to do this kind of stuff.

@MH01 "Without this war GGP would be seeing all time highs"

With this war we hit an ATH. And we're not far off it with gold well off its highs. Yes, this will fly if gold hits $5500. And that's inevitable. Inflation is still inflation and government spending is still insane.

@Prof " global trade flows tend to adapt and reroute rather than stop altogether. "

Not when there is sufficient scarcity, which is the area we're discussing here.

@Kent_Man DYOR, but if I were looking to park some cash right now, I'd be at least thinking about oil field services companies like Schlumberger. They had a big surge because of Venezuela, they are better placed than any of their competitors (Halliburton, etc) for that one. So it's about a lot already.

But there's a lot of stuff that's going to need rebuilt in the Middle East once this all blows over. And it will all blow over one way or another. The rest of the world isn't going to let the Iranians shut down access to all that oil permanently. Money talks.

I don't know which oil field services company is best-placed to be involved in the rebuild. I'm not looking to park any cash right now. But one or more of them are likely to benefit from recent world events.

Alternatively, if you have cash on hand, you might park it in gold, silver, or miners (GDX, GDXJ, or even a single gold miner that is looking good, if you can think of one, LOL). I believe gold and silver both have a long way to run. Because of the industrial demand for it, silver may have a better run ahead of it than gold. Copper is another option. So is platinum. I believe all of these are buying opportunities right now.

One should learn.

In October 2019, BP could be bought for around 485p / share. January 2020, it briefly went over 500p. Covid hit and it started to drop.

6 March, it closed at 395p. 9 March, it closed at 318p and I started to pay attention. 16 March (too soon, but who cares) I put 30K of my cash into BP at 255p. Two days later, I put another 15K in at 233p. 31 March, I cashed out that second smaller lot at 338p, a nice profit of 105p per share. My 15K had become 21.7K.

2 October, I put that 21.7K back in at 212p. Just couldn't resist. 26 October, I put in my last 15K cash when it hit 200p. Too bad, a few days later it hit 188p. Oh, well.

A year later, October 2021, I cashed out half my BP at 350p. In August 2022, I sold the rest at 450p. Collected some dividends along the way, too.

Some things are pretty much certain to recover. World events cause panic. When you have cash handy, you can make it count. Sure, my cash wasn't making a great return while it was cash. But it's an opportunity. If you double your money in a year, you can afford to have a couple years with cash making very little for you. Watch for massive drops due to some panic or other and ask yourself if you really believe the panic or not. If not, cash is king.

These kind of events are not that rare. Things happen that destroy market sentiment in the market as a whole, or in one sector, but the sector is actually going to be fine. That's when you deploy your cash. You might have to wait a year or two for things to recover, and that's ok. I made a great return on those BP investments -- and the risk was really low. People were always going to end up going back to work, driving their cars, etc.

I sold some other stuff so I could grab some IAG really cheap back then, too. People were always going to start flying again.

Don't hesitate in these cases to take a relatively quick profit so you have cash available again. The next opportunity might be coming soon. Maybe take it all out or maybe just take your original cash out and keep the rest on a free carry. It depends on if it is something you want to own long term, or just something you wanted a quick profit and now you want out.