Thanks, Epsadrilles, didn't know that about Hannam. I agree, it doesn't change my view. If Hannam has had his fingers burnt before, he'd be likely to either keep his hands well away from the fire or only take a risk that is really worth it. This doesn't fall into that category. And we already thought they were being conservative anyway.
"You also aren't the sharpest knife on the block if you remotely believe Trump means anything he says, his words of wisdom change by the minute"
Trump intentionally contradicts himself to keep people guessing as to his real intentions. It's all in his book. He thinks he'll get better deals if his counterparties don't know what he's really after.
If anyone invests based on things he says, they are likely to make big mistakes. Look for what he actually does.
I'm not saying he isn't crazy, but he's also intentionally making himself appear crazy as a negotiating tactic. Next week, he'll be saying how great his relationship is with China's president, and that things are going great in negotiations, and the following week he'll say how he's going to be sending the entire US Navy to the Taiwan Strait. None of it means anything.
One of the reasons the US press hates him so much, they try to read between the lines and predict what's going to happen, and with Trump, you can't read between the lines of what he says, because what he says isn't even on the same page, and probably not even in the same book, of what's actually happening. And he does it intentionally. He's the biggest internet troll the world has ever seen.
@Chippy6, no one thinks you misled, you reported. I hadn't seen it.
@schlemiel "So is Hannam advising Greatland or not?"
Yes. We don't know in what capacity. I'd hope no one would be surprised, though, at GGP getting M&A advice at this point, since it's reasonable to think an offer might come sometime in the next year or two. And it's reasonable to think that advisor might be making suggestions of ways to maximise that offer if it does come.
@Sanboy "Is that not price sensitive news and as such distributed information via company RNS?"
Depends on what "that" is. If there's a formal offer, of course. If they simply have the brains to look at the situation and say, "NCM may want to buy us out, or may want to do a joint venture on Scal, let's strengthen our position," of course not. If it's somewhere in between, it depends on where things are.
"Acceptable minor non-monetary benefits shall be reasonable and proportionate and of such a scale that they are unlikely to influence the investment firm's behaviour in any way that is detrimental to the interests of the relevant client."
Right. H&P has to be very sure that their note is in the interests of their clients, or they would risk falling foul of this regulation. If an investment firm isn't getting paid, then they are just giving advice. When they give advice when they have been paid to do so, it sets a higher ethical and regulatory bar, and they have to disclose. To overcome the conflict of interest concerns, they have to ensure that they are not giving advice detrimental to their clients. Otherwise, the clients come back and say, "You told me to buy, you set a target price of 12.9p, it only went to 11p. That was detrimental to me because I could have bought something better. AND, you were paid by them to give that advice. You've taken advantage of my trust."
It explains their conservatism. They believe it's worth more than 12.9p, but because of the MIFID II situation they have to be very careful.
Premise for my post is this from Chippy at 8:29 today. I've still not seen the report, I'm taking his comment at face value, because I'm assuming he wouldn't have made up the MIFID II part, that's not something people would usually pull out of thin air.
"H+P is a retained advisor to Greatland Gold. The cost of producing this material has been covered by Greatland Gold as part of a contractual engagement with HP
This report should therefore be considered an “acceptable minor non monetary benefit “ under the MiFID II directive.
That was on the report so make of it what you will"
***end of Chippy comment
@Lenz, re: whether GGP needs to raise capital. Of course they don't. But the threat of walking away from a proposed deal and raising capital can certainly strengthen a negotiating position.
Astounding. To think his/her deramping on a chat board is going to have any impact on the SP of a company with a multi-billion pound market cap.
Especially that kind of deramping.
But I'm happy he/she got the desired price, maybe will be a slightly happier individual going forward.
In a previous post I poured cold water on the suggestion that H&P might be advising on a merger/acquisition involving GGP, because the initiation note would be a conflict of interest.
The existence of the MIFID II note/disclaimer means they've covered themselves on that. So it's a real possibility that something is in the works and that they are involved.
Further to that, let's just ask ourselves why GGP would pay for this? How does it help the company make money? It's obvious how a higher SP benefits us, but how does it help the BOD accomplish THEIR goals? They've paid for it. Why would they do that? Just because they like us?
I see three likely reasons:
1. They want to be able to issue more shares to raise more funds, and if the SP is higher that means it will take fewer shares to raise the funds. I guess the reason for this would be if they wanted to become miners rather than just explorers.
2. They are in, or expect to be in, takeover discussions and a higher SP strengthens their argument that a buyer has to come up with more money.
3. They are in, or expect to be in, discussions about the buyout of their remaining share in a current joint venture OR entering into a new joint venture, and a higher share price strengthens their negotiating position because they can just threaten to do #1.
Those are the three reasons that stand out to me why they would pay H&P to do this. Note particularly my suggestion #3 -- it's possible that this is not about Hav at all, it's that NCM (or someone else, for that matter) wants to joint venture Scal, and they are positioning themselves to say, "You'll have to pay a higher price, we can do this ourselves now if we want."
All of this is pure speculation, of course.
@Paddy "I think we are all pretty confident that the HGZ will be extended to the NW as the step-out drilling continues..."
Not me. I'm clueless on this stuff. I looked into it and decided I didn't understand enough to invest here, so passed on it a while ago like a fool. Was telling my beautiful bride about it and she decided she wanted to take a flyer on it (she doesn't know anything either) because people like you sounded like you really, really knew what you were talking about.
So totally contrary to my usual practice, we're not really "investing" here, we're flying blind. But I'm learning! Enough to know they were conservative in this note.
Thanks for all your help on this board. If this works out like we think it might I'll owe you and some others a lot!
"''US$50m for our non-Havieron assets...interesting''
Don't you mean laughable!!??"
No, it's conservative. They've done their research and gone conservative on almost everything. It's perfect for them. If their conservative estimates come true, their investors will still make a killing. If it works out even better and they start to walk the target up, their investors will love them even more.
If they hadn't been conservative and had gone to, say, 16p on their target, and it only came out to 12-14p, they would have disappointed clients.
This is a broker's dream, they can push their clients toward a huge opportunity without the risk of overplaying their hand. So they went conservative on almost everything here. Smart people.
If they made the target 13p, I'd bet they really think it's in the 15-20p range, maybe even better.
No, I didn't buy more shares. Not that big move.
I filtered two posters. Half of the board disappeared, it's glorious.
I didn't filter everyone who has a negative view of this share. I'm happy to hear other views, that's why I come here. But when someone uses two-day old news, which the market has obviously already factored in, to keep on deramping, I'm done.
@Sanboy, I don't think it's ramping to say that you are most likely correct. I just have this cautious side that says what seems to be good news might be bad. I'd rather not be completely blindsided if bad news comes.
This makes me boring at parties, I suppose. But then, I have many other boring qualities to go with it.
"30p will make me run round the streets tonight naked......whilst clapping for the NHS of course. ;-)"
I appreciate the warning but without letting us know which streets to avoid it doesn't help much. ;-)
"This is extremely positive and very surprised the market hasn't picked up on it. They will be actively providing detail on GGP and pushing investors to purchase the stock."
Likely but not guaranteed. It means they will be providing detail on GGP and making recommendations. Those recommendations could be to sell / short rather than buy. Doesn't seem likely in this case but maybe they know something we don't.
The fact that they advise on some mergers/acquisitions is not relevant in this case. If they were advising NCM or GGP in acquisition talks they wouldn't be putting out an initiation note, that would be a serious conflict of interest and would likely put them on the wrong side of insider trading rules. If there's M&A activity / advice going on, they aren't involved.
"I'll be dead in 20 years. That avenue doesn't appeal to me"
Maybe not but it would appeal to a lot of investors and would push the SP high enough that you could take a really nice profit.
If there's as much gold in the ground at Havieron as most here seem to think, it's going to be a win for everyone, however it plays out.
I had to do that horrible thing called work today. I come back and there's been almost 300 posts since I last checked. How do you guys keep track? Is everyone here retired or furloughed?
Did anything happen today I should know about? My head is spinning.
"neil, mate - I do write it like "advise" for you to read it like "advi$e"..."
This exp£ains a £ot. Most of us are thinking in pounds, dude. Your currency trading has you a££ messed up, no wonder most of what you are saying doesn't make sense. You c£ear£y have some things to £earn. ;)
The market was down today generally due to bad economic news. The good news of sales offices opening was indeed good news, but it was just swamped today by the bad news. Tomorrow will be another day.
I don't think I'd be buying anything in this market if I were concerned about one-day moves. Now is the time to buy things that you think have a good long or medium term (more than a year) prospect and hold. If you can't have that kind of horizon it's probably best not to be in shares at all right now.
"Do you expect allot of demand from people to travel? how do you see the issue with the possibility that a vaccine will take time to develop and also administer to billions of people until the point people feel safe."
These are good and fair questions. I do expect a lot of demand. Not like what it was. But there will be pent up demand for business travel, holidays, people who have family members overseas, etc.
Once travel is freely permitted, there will be people who feel safe because "it won't happen to me," people who think the risk is worth it because they are not in a high-risk group, people who will travel with fear and trembling and taking every precaution possible, etc.
There have always been people terrified of flying who have jumped on an aeroplane to go see family or for the holiday of a lifetime. They considered it worth it. I suspect there will be a lot of that.
It won't be "normal" right away and the new normal may never be the same as the old normal. But yes, there will be demand.
The government and the media are doing their best to scare everyone to improve compliance with the lockdown. But a lot of people aren't complying all that well anyway, and a lot of people are complying out of civic duty or fear of trouble with the authorities, not because they are afraid.
A vaccine might never develop, but people aren't going to live out their whole lives in solitary confinement in their homes waiting for one. People will reach the point of saying, "If I die, I die, but I'm going to go see my grandchildren" or sister or life-long friend, or the first place on their bucket list. And if they don't die, they'll do it again.