@Chippy "Not sure why people are moaning"
Haven't been here long, but long enough to know that for some people this is like their football team. They may be in it for the long term and want their football team to win the League, but they also want the team to win every single game.
Some of these guys aren't going to sell no matter what the SP does but they still want it to go up every single day. They aren't just investors, they are also fans.
And even small gains aren't enough. I'd guess a lot of Liverpool fans complained that they only beat Bournemouth by 2-1 in their last Premiership game. Sure, Liverpool was 25 points ahead of second place, and Bournemouth only had 27 points all season, and they should have expected to beat them worse. Still, a little silly to complain when you are 25 points ahead.
Just like it is a little silly to complain about a SP close to 9 when a bunch of people here got in at less than 2. But, fans are like that, LOL.
"Some crazy figures in it, plus a rather accurate guesstimate on the reserves of Hav"
How does anyone know it's remotely accurate, at this point? Maybe I'm just stupid but I didn't think anyone was to that point yet, I thought that was still a month or two away?
"One of the many conditions that the airline union enforce helps provide you and the other passengers with a safe flight."
No, regulators enforce safe conditions anyway. If the employees have integrity (and the vast majority obviously do) to operate within those conditions, you'll have safe flights.
Health & Safety laws (for employee safety) and heavy regulation of airlines has rendered the "safety" argument for unions virtually moot.
It is certainly true that unions can have an important role in leveling the playing field in compensation negotiations but the safety argument is pretty much obsolete.
"TMT if they can ‘only’ justify £1billion for our part of Hav there is no way they can justify £1billion for the rest - even if scally is solid gold!"
Well, I did say "at least".
GGP has other assets besides Hav and Scally, not least of which is expertise.
If you think it would take a Hav valuation that puts our share at £1.8Bn instead, doesn't change the main point. The main point is that to get to a 50p share price, Hav (or Hav+Scally combined) has to be known to be a monster, and if it is a monster, NCM won't have any trouble raising the cash to buy it and everything else.
"So basically they will add Hav ore to telfur ore and have a teir 2 facility, but Hav would still be a teir 1 mine ?"
I read it as saying that if the costs associated with processing are split between Have and Telfer, that then reduces the cost associated with Telfer and turns Telfer (not Hav) into Tier Two. Key paragraph:
"The combined operation could then turn Telfer into a tier-2 asset. Newcrest defines such a gold asset as more than 200,000 ounces per annum with over 10 years of life at costs of less than US$900/oz."
The combined op reduces the Telfer costs to less than US$900/oz.
It's not saying anything about what Hav is. It's saying that Hav processing means all the processing costs don't have to be attributed to Telfer anymore and makes Telfer look better than it did previously.
Long haul flights are hard on the health. Overnight flights are hard on the health. Pretty rough to do that regularly, should be compensated well.
My objection has not been to staff being paid well, but to the union intentionally looking to inflict maximum damage with its strikes, with resulting significant negative impact on BA customers as well. Get a decent union that's interested in win-win negotiations rather than the nonsense we've had and give staff a good deal, that's what I'd like to see. But the union demanded a share of the good times, they have to take a share of the bad when that's what comes around, too.
"Could they afford to pay 50p though ? (or more for that matter) Genuine Question"
I'd say they aren't offering that unless the Hav drilling results justify at least 25p / share on Hav alone. Using rough figures, 4 billion shares, that's £1 billion for 30% of Hav and £1 billion for other assets.
If they can justify £1 Bn for our share of Hav, then they can certainly raise £2 Bn. That makes THEIR share of Hav worth about £2.3Bn.
Without any clear numbers on Hav they easily raised USD 1.5Bn just to refinance higher interest debt. Anyone really think they'd have any difficulty raising another USD 3Bn if their share of Hav is worth almost that much? That's just debt financing.
And of course, they could always use equity financing, either by offering a mix of shares and stock or by simply offering new shares on the market to raise the funds. If Hav is good enough to justify a 50p price for GGP, NCM can certainly raise the funds to pay it.
Whether Haverion is good enough to justify it, whether they would want to pay that or not, and whether GGP would accept it, of course remains to be seen. But raising the funds would not be an issue for NCM if such an offer were justifiable, and if it isn't justifiable, it won't happen.
@Spy"It's called time travel....lol"
Could you just please pop forward a couple years and check the GGP SP, and then pop back and tell me? Check the history for any special dividends while you're at it, too. Oh, and might as well check NCM, too. Just in case.
Oh, and if the news is bad? Just stay in the future, I don't want to know.
Something weird with this board.
Spy's correction is clearly being shown as happening before my post but it wasn't visible even after I posted and saw that someone else had beat me to it.
Spy's response to Prospector is being shown as posted before Prospector's response. Huh? I'm sure Spy knows some stuff before the rest of us but I don't think he knew what Prospector would say before he said it.
If there's stuff being posted that isn't showing immediately for some reason, or some kind of timing mixup in the way things are clearing through for some people, that makes me think that quick on the trigger replies are probably not a great idea here.
I wasted time replying to Spy, and probably annoyed him in the process, on something he'd already corrected. And I'm not the only one. But it wasn't my fault, there was no correction visible.
Does this forum allow editing your posts?
To me, whether they pay this divi in full, in part, or not at all makes little difference. One thing matters, are we going to start selling oil and making money again soon. If we are, the dividends will take care of themselves.
The company can afford to borrow and can do so at negligible interest in today's markets. So if they borrow to maintain the dividend, they'll be able to pay it back. Normally, borrowing to pay dividends is a bad idea but we're not in a normal world.
If they don't pay a dividend they'll be able to pay a larger one later to make up for it. It's not going to matter much either way over the long term. It does matter in the short term for shareholders who count on dividend income to live. So I have a small preference for them maintaining the dividend.
I wouldn't be a shareholder here if I weren't convinced that oil will rebound and that the company is going to have plenty of money to take care of dividends and debts in the medium and long term.
"this is still in my view a great long term investment but for now its a traders stock and I will re enter if it goes stupidly low again and im sure it will....."
Don't count on it. Very volatile and will jump around but the stupid lows were based on fears we might not be flying until autumn or even next year, and that fear is receding.
No, the company is not making money yet, but share prices are always more forward looking (NOT "what have you done for me recently?" It's "what are you going to do for me in the future?").
Right now the market is looking forward and saying, "You're going to do a lot better for me in the future than a 165 SP." It would take a second wave, and a very bad one, to take us back to those days, I think.
We might revisit 210 or 220, but we might not, too. If you want the long-term upside you are playing with fire to stay out of it right now.
I'll fly at least twice within the next 12 months. Once for business, a meeting I was supposed to go to in April, postponed, remote / video just doesn't work for some meetings. I'll quarantine and work from home if necessary when I get back.
Once for family. Even if it means I need to quarantine afterwards.
All going well, I'll fly for holiday, too. That one isn't as certain.
So that's 2 and probably 3 flights. Two long-haul.
It may take 2-3 years to get back to normal flying routines. Pessimistically it could take five. I can wait ten years for my investment here to pay off. I'd expect it to at least double within that time frame, possibly more, plus pay some dividends. Doubling in ten years would be a little better than 7% annually, compounded. Add in dividends and you're getting close to 10% a year, maybe. Not too bad.
And I think it will double faster than that.
If you need your money in a year, don't buy this. Bad stuff could happen, a second wave of the virus could set us back badly. If you need your money in two years, much more likely you'd turn a profit but I still wouldn't take the risk, personally. If you can wait five years, it's likely to come very good in that time, very good indeed. If you can wait ten, it's almost dead certain to come good before then.
That's my view. If it hits 6-700 in the next 2-3 years, I'm taking profits. if it doesn't, I can wait until it does. I think it will happen.
Pity you didn't get in last week. I got in too soon, have only just made up my losses now. You got in too late, if you get in now you'll be right about the price I got in. I still like that price, if I had spare cash I'd be strongly tempted to put more in here.