Member Info for TakingMyTime

As I've said, I have a core holding that I'll keep long term. My target was a pound per share in the past, the world has changed. I may take some profit at a pound (now twenty, in new shares) but that was based on Hav only, and only a percentage of it. Now that we have Telfer and all of Hav, l expect I'll still be here at fifty, just for the fun of it.

I also have a trading block of shares that I flip back and forth between GGP and cash and SGLN and YCA and SILG, depending on where I think the best place is to put it.

I had some in SGLN. A day when SGLN is relatively steady and GGP is down 3.5% was a good day to move out of SLGN and into GGP. My entire trading block is now back in GGP, at 688.74.

In all probability, there will be another drop tomorrow (there often is) but we'll see the right side of 700, and more, soon.

@TT

"As I've said numerous times, it's unfortunate that the likes of Telfer WDU is not viewed in the same way because it's growth drilling, rather than exploration drilling, but hey!"

For those with cash to put in, that's not unfortunate. It means there is real value that is going to materialize at some point that, apparently, significant parts of the market are ignoring. This is still a buying opportunity, it appears to me. One that none of us knew about back when I was buying in. I believed at the time this was a good investment. It's turned out to be a lucky one, too. (More often than not that's the case, that it's the good ones that turn out to be lucky ones also. But this one has been lucky in spades!)

It's an interesting one, friends.

The gold-silver ratio is a lot closer to what historically would be called normal. There's a lot of things that are hard to read in this situation.

1. What's the normal gold-silver ratio in an environment where silver has so many more industrial uses than it used to? I don't think anyone really knows.

2. What is China going to do? Are they stockpiling PMs just to drive the price high with the intent of profiting by starting to feed some of that back into the market and sell at a really high price? They might. If so, will it be enough to really stop this run?

3. FOMO / bandwagon buying is obviously driving part of the surge here. Classic bubble behavior -- but in this case, the macro environment almost demands the price of gold/silver/copper/platinum go much higher. So the "bubble" isn't actually driving the price higher than it's likely to go, it's probably just getting the price normalized more quickly than many would have expected. Is there any obvious way for a savvy investor to take advantage of that rather than just hold on tight?

4. How much of the current surge is driven by panic closing of shorts as the rising price blows exposure sky high? How many really bad shorts are still out there? Could they cause significant failures that might even take some market participants out of the market and undercut the bull run? Or will further short closures still turbocharge it?

5. Will the surge in PMs make the green revolution so costly that governments will abandon targets and subsidies to try to push that forward? And if so, what will that do to the industrial demand for PMs -- and how will that play out?

6. You can't eat gold or silver. Could we be seeing the runup to a huge crash that will leave people desperate for the bare essentials of life, where PMs are a useless luxury to most people and lose some of their value?

7. How secure or insecure are the physical gold / physical silver ETFs?

8. How secure / insecure are all the secure places (including, for that matter, your own home) where people are keeping physical gold or silver? Is anything really secure?

9. Is Trump going to do something to crash the economic system? Are those who hate him going to do something to crash the economic system in an attempt to discredit him? How would this affect PMs (physical and/or paper)?

10. In terms of upside, how do miners compare to owning gold/silver? In terms of safety, how do they compare?

11. Is it too late to buy into miners? Is it still early? Should one buy individual miners or is GDX / SIL / GDXJ / SILJ a reasonably good play?

I don't think anyone really knows the answers. I think I heard Rick Rule is moving his silver holdings into silver miners. My instincts say the same. Similarly, I'd rather be invested here than in gold generally. I think the mining ETFs are probably still a good play. But I don't really know.

E1, if interested in uranium you might be interested in this: https://www.cameco.com/businesses/global-laser-enrichment#:~:text=Global%20Laser%20Enrichment%20LLC%20(GLE,the%20technology%20lead%20for%20GLE.

That could address the enrichment problem. FWIW. Pretty well off-topic, to GGP / gold though.

Speedy, tons of respect for your consistent foresight on the inevitability of what's happening in PMs.

Your comment here is mostly right. Geopolitical considerations are a huge driver of the case for gold. I'm a massive believer in macro considerations. For an example, Cameco may be well-run but the biggest factor in an investment decision there is whether the demand for uranium is likely to continue to increase, or tank. That's largely a geopolitical consideration. The parallel to gold and GGP is obvious.

I do not believe anyone would really object to discussing geopolitical considerations relative to POG (or copper, for that matter). What is happening, and indeed, what might be happening next year and later, and discussions of the probabilities of those things, is all profitable in evaluating this investment.

What's not profitable? "Trump is a bad guy." "I love what Trump's doing." "We need a Trump in the UK." "We need someone to stand up to Trump." "The ayatollah needs to go." "We should not be involved in interfering in Iran at all." "The communists in China are evil." "I wish someone would take out Putin." etc, etc. It doesn't remotely help anyone make a good investment decision to hear someone's opinion on the morality or even the wisdom of individuals, organizations, countries. It doesn't matter whether you like or hate a particular world player. It doesn't matter whether you like or hate their domestic agenda.

How does that stuff help you or anyone else make good investment decisions? That stuff belongs on a political site, not here. It's actually counter-productive here. It stirs emotions and emotional investing is a bad mistake.

The situation on IHT / BPR with GGP may have changed. There was a general consensus among experts that as an explorer, GGP would be considered to be dealing in investments or land, which would not qualify.

Now that GGP owns and operates a working mine and a processing mill, it would be a lot harder to say they are simply dealing in investments or land. So there's a much stronger argument to be made that GGP is a qualifying company for this purpose.

Get advice if this matters to you, don't trust internet posts. Internet posts are probably based on old analysis and often inexpert analysis. If you have enough for this to matter you can afford to pay for proper advice and you should do so.

Hi, Speedy, hope you are doing well.

What could cause oil to spike? War or major terrorism, especially in the Middle East, that hits production or delivery. Inflation driven by government policy could drive a spike in nominal terms and spikes in nominal terms sometimes become spikes in real terms as well. The whole Venezuela thing could become really messy.

This is very likely and, while perhaps not causing a spike, could cause a steady increase: changes in government policies around green energy and EVs. Reality is going to hit sometime, I think it's already starting to: green energy, other than nuclear, is expensive, unreliable, and environmentally unsound (due to the environmental impact of producing solar panels and windmills). Producing the batteries for EVs has the same problem. And there's just not going to be enough silver and copper around to go fully electric. The internal combustion engine is still going to be a massive part of transportation and transportation is not becoming less important. As more and more governments adjust or dump their net zero targets, and as car makers go on making the decision to scale back EV production, oil demand is going to increase. That's not a spike, but I believe it is inevitable. That's a long play, though. Even if all governments changed their policies today, it wouldn't immediately change the proportion of EVs on the road. But it would begin to change, and the result would likely be a spike in investment into oil in anticipation of that growing demand.

Risk to oil: that new technology solves the cost and environmental impact of renewables, or new technology is found that turbocharges the efficiency of petrol or diesel engines. I'm not talking about gaining 10% efficiency, I'm talking about doubling (or more) the miles per gallon. That would impact demand significantly.

I haven't done any research on explorers at all. I view oil is a medium or long term play, and probably one that makes sense for someone who wants to lock in some income. The price increase/spike may not happen for five years, after all. I believe it is coming and will be lucrative for those who get in when it is cheap. Meanwhile, it's a decent income stream if you go into oil majors.

Hi, Jerry. "Think it’s a 1-2 year trade. Maybe 5% of portfolio."

Agree on probable timeline. Investment goals would determine the percentage, I suppose.

The Chevron / Exxon spat over Hess / Guyana, and the outcome of that, wasn't very happy for Exxon. I would be a little surprised, but not shocked, to see Exxon make a play for Chevron. If that's ever going to happen, it will be in the next year, I think, before supply/demand dynamics start to drive the price up. I'd put it at less than a 20% chance. I could be totally wrong of course. But if I was looking for a takeover possibility, that one would be on the list.

"I don’t think there is a lot of spare capacity in the world."

Jerry, you sucked me back in. I agree with virtually everything you said. Disclaimer: I have no investments I control except GGP and SGLN and a few little dabbles in silver and platinum, and not intending to change that. So I'm not putting my money where my mouth is because I don't see oil as being as good as PMs right now but that could change before long.

If I were looking for a reliable income investment, I'd be buying oil majors. They are generating solid FCF. I don't believe the downside risk is significant, and the upside potential is very good. Reliable income plus upside is appealing.

I don't believe there is sufficient capex right now to maintain production. I believe production in the Permian has peaked. I believe there is still significant risk of major supply disruption in the Middle East -- bad actors have probably lost their near-term hopes of crushing Israel but they have to do something to keep their believers excited, and targeting oil supply seems a feasible option for them. So I think oil supply is vulnerable to shocks which would cause the price to surge.

I think demand models have not yet factored in that governments are abandoning green targets and running out of money to subsidize EVs. Take away the subsidies and you might see a lot more hybrids but you'll also just see more petrol cars than a lot of the models have suggested. So on both the demand and supply side, oil prices look to me as if they are likely to increase within 2-3 years.

Further, in an inflationary world, oil is likely to retain significant value. It might outstrip inflation or lag behind it but it is likely to retain a lot of its value so its a reasonable inflation hedge. In a disastrous collapse, oil may outperform silver or gold -- you can't eat silver or gold, but people still need to get to work and goods still need to be delivered. All things considered, I consider oil to be safe but with a more likely upside than downside. It's not for the person who is looking for the next ten-bagger though some models say it could skyrocket. If I were managing my own investments I'd have picked up a significant oil holding over the past year, especially last spring there were some real opportunities.

Thanks, all. Nice to see you, RA!

Happy Christmas to all!

Jerry, LOL, I knew you were a genius all along. I just wanted you to know I noticed. But did you buy any platinum in early August like I did? Looks even better than silver. If I were smart, I'd have dumped everything including GGP and put it all in platinum back then. Instead I just fiddled around for fun when there was serious money to be made. But I don't really have the time to research so I'm just playing games except for GGP. The result is sometimes I get lucky like I did with platinum and sometimes not so lucky (Adobe). It's just a hobby though. GGP is the only serious money I have that isn't locked up in a trust.

I've completely lost my ability to get on GGPChat, so please just say hi to everyone there for me. I probably am done posting here again. Since I'd sold when Bamps did, I hoped popping in to say hi would encourage him a little. Lots of idiots around.

@Victorocto, whoever you are. "Old friends emerge for a reason! Certainly not for your benefit." You are correct, I emerged for the benefit of my friends, not for you or others I don't know. But it's an open forum, so feel free to be wrong about my reasons and even talk about scamming. You'd better do the opposite of what I said. Don't trade this like I do, or hold it long term, either. Don't buy low and sell high and take advantage of the manic moves here. Don't look for opportunities to increase your holding for free or to reduce your basis until you are on a free ride.

You should not try to do any of those things I said that I do or you might get scammed. Don't do it. Watch out. Everything I said could be a scam. Better put your money where your mouth is and sell out of this entirely, quick. There are scammers around. This share is unique that way, scammers never get involved with other shares. (Of course, if I'm a scammer, that might not be true, either. Best be careful, it's a jungle out there.)

I won't mention any other good investments because then you can't buy them without getting scammed. I probably won't post here again, though, so you don't have to worry about me scamming you any more. Good luck.

Hi, Panama, great to see you! Yes, a lot has changed. I still believe Havieron is what really drives the value here, and that GGP was never going to be a minnow long term. But have to give SD credit for what he's accomplished!

Happy birthday and happy Christmas to you! I'm well, and glad to hear from you!

Hi, Jerry. School done, I'm now mostly in Illinois but I travel some. Your silver move is making you look like a genius.

It's flying. I've been lucky. I mentioned earlier that I'd sold my trading position in GGP. I almost put it in YCA (I've often done that before) or kept it in cash while waiting to see if GGP would drop. This time, I put it in SGLN. No brains, just luck.

Jerry, nice to know you are still kicking around here. Not even sure why I read this board today but had to post once I did.

You mentioned Panama, is she still around?

Very kind of you to call me a good poster. I never really added that much but I did know how to sound like I was talking about. I've been told that's why I ended up a preacher, LOL. I'm choosing to take that as a compliment.

I really did enjoy my active time here, and people like you and some others you mentioned were a big part of why. I probably didn't say thanks enough. ATB

This is actually a lot of fun to bring back some of the memories. Sorry Bamps had to take some abuse for it to happen.

@Element1, LOL at the capitalist in me. I'm a capitalist by conviction. It's much the best way to run an economy, and therefore results in the greatest good for the greatest number. It also equips those who are generous in spirit to be generous in action.

Many, even Mushroom and Redirons coming out of the woodwork! And I did see Jerry earlier, too. Fun times.

Flashback time here. HopefullyGold, Dodgemeister. Maybe I need to read here a little more often just to see who is rattling around!

I haven't posted here in a lot time. Due to life changes, I no longer care much about investments, but I still play around with GGP. I own two kinds of GGP shares, my long-term hold and my trading shares.

My LT target has increased. It was 100p (now 20p with today's shares). I will hold that and continue to hold it for some time to come. Circumstances may change (as they already did with the acquisition of Telfer) which could change my target again.

My trading pot has grown over the last 5 years. It doesn't take long watching this share to get a feel for the volatility. This share is manic. It will go on sudden and overdone runs up, and sudden and overdone drops. I have taken advantage. I have added shares when prices dropped to crazy levels and sold when I believed a run was driven by hype and excitement rather than substance. Almost every time, I've kept a few extra shares and pocketed some cash. I've never touched my core long term holding. I only once sold at the absolute peak and never bought at the absolute bottom of the trough. But I've been right more than I've been wrong and done very well out of it and over time, built up a very, very nice trading stash just by rolling a little of my profits into a bigger trading pot, over and over again.

The net result is that the cash I took out over time took me closer and closer to a free carry. Friday, I sold 25% of my holding, my entire trading pot, and now I am on a complete free carry. My GGP investment has fully paid for itself without hitting my LT holding at all.

I could be wrong this time. This price surge might be real and sustained. If so, my LT holding is going to do very well, and I will be happy. If I'm right, though, this surge is driven not only by real factors (price of gold, drilling results, etc) but also by exuberance. If so, we'll see a drop back to 450p or maybe 400p. Perhaps even lower. With a drop, I'll plug my trading proceeds right back in.

I still believe in the LT investment opportunity here. I'll be in it for a long time. But I took profit on Friday. No regrets.

Congratulations to Bamps on taking some profit, too. Those who have a problem with it and with him disclosing it probably need to reevaluate life.

Greetings to all my friends here. I'm doing well, content with life, happy with what I'm doing. I have a loneliness I'll probably never get over. I wouldn't want to. It's ok, though. Happy Christmas to all of you.

Thank you for all the nice comments. ATB to all.

It's so strange having become part of this community and valuing it as much as I have come to value it. Lots of friends here. And so it is strange to say goodbye.

There's no way to name everyone, or say how much I've appreciated some of you. There's no way to say everything I'd like to say, and it's not really the forum for a lot of that stuff anyway.

For some of you, this share has been life-changing, and that's really cool. For others, it's likely to be life-changing if you hang on. For me, my life took another turn and so it actually isn't that big of a deal for me. But it seems likely to be a really nice thing for my kids, and I'm grateful to those who pointed me this way. And I guess I can name them -- Bamps, TomE, and our friend Nige, who isn't with us anymore. I guess I'll add Paddy, whose shared research convinced me they were right about this share.

I guess that's pretty much it. All the best to all of you, not just in investing, but in life. Investing, after all, is just a mechanism to facilitate the things that really matter in life.

If Nige could have signed off with a final post, those of us who knew him know how he would have signed it. So I'll close that way in his memory.

BoL