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Interesting little point in that RNS. "Securities Lending" 0.67%.

Probably tells us who the counterparty is on the Jane Street short position. Blackrock may be the ones that will make Jane Street weep.

You know what, though? It doesn't matter what we think about that. What matters is that the Iranians don't know what the US is going to do. You may think it's because Trump is insane, I may think it's because misdirection is a game he loves to play, but it doesn't matter why. What matters is that they don't know, and that puts loads of pressure on them at various points. And that has potentially major geopolitical / economic ramifications that could result in very large and very rapid swings. And GGP, perhaps as much as almost any investment besides oil, is sensitive to those factors.

Good luck, all.

@zoros

1. "What we have here is personfication of megalomania."

2. "He genuinely gets confused and distracted."

3. "Trump doesn't confuse businesses or people as a tactic."

It is entirely possible to believe statements 1 and 2 and yet believe 3 is completely mistaken. There is abundant evidence that 1 & 2 are true and that 3 is not.

"The islamophobic brigade is out again."

I didn't guarantee this buying opportunity would materialize. I said the chances are greater than 50%. If it happens, and you miss the opportunity because you let your political / religious views of what should happen blind you to what might happen, maybe you'll learn a lesson. I suspect that's a lesson a lot of people here need to learn, even if their views are different from yours.

As for Islamophobia, the current Iranian regime is responsible for the deaths of millions of Muslims. I've killed none.

@zoros "Do you honestly believe he is a savvy individual who confuses others as a tactic???"

I didn't say I think he's savvy. He does intentionally confuse others as a tactic. It's a well-known approach in business negotiations. It's wise in fighting a war. It's not a great approach in leading a country where you need others to follow you. It's usually bad tactics against political rivals because it infuriates their supporters rather than winning them over. So is it savvy? No. But it's reality. It's what he does and has been doing.

Every time I see some BBC analyst say Trump's war aims aren't clear I think, "Yeah, what did you expect, you muppet?" They aren't clear to the Iranians, either, and intentionally so.

@Speedy, I don't find it hard to disagree with you, LOL. He's not a good person, for sure.

But the man has more impact on our investments than anyone else, and also on the lives of many people I work with. There's a method to some of his madness and it's good to grasp it. He wants his enemies (political or militarily) to think it's all random, so they don't know what he'll do.

It's all in Sun Tzu and it comes out in Art of the Deal as well. He's playing by the same playbook he's used in business for decades and people think it's random. It's not, it's misdirection, intentionally so.

@MattyBoy1965 That is your opinion. Are you sure it is Trump's? In terms of investment decisions, we have to think about what is likely or may happen, not in terms of what we believe should happen. Our opinion of Trump (or any other individual) or of a regime like Iran's is usually not relevant to making good investment decisions.

I am sure Netanyahu would agree with your assessment but he's only a participant, not the main decision maker.

@Droverman No, I don't have time to read a lot of alternative sources. Every fact I mentioned can be deduced from reading the BBC or the Times of Israel (no fan of either Trump or Netanyahu) or even al Jazeera, or looking at a map.

But I read them for facts (even if I don't fully trust them), not conclusions. I'll draw my own.

I also have read Art of the Deal and numerous articles by Trump and watched and read interviews with him before he ever ran for POTUS. When you have a disrupter in a position to do a lot of disruption, it's good to get inside his head. Some do so to find flaws. I do so to get an understanding of the way he operates so I can be better prepared to understand his disruptions and where they are going. Not just for investment purposes but for other reasons as well.

All of this is simply my opinion.

This is still a buying opportunity. The news is not fully priced in. Lots of analysts haven't come out yet with a response. Each upgrade will catch attention. The market will not price it in fully for a while but there's further to go, even if POG stays low.

Maybe the surge to an all time high was overdone (before the resource upgrade) but it wouldn't be now. I expect to soon be over 600p and probably over 650 even without a gold surge.

I expect another drop in gold. Something is about to give. The Iranian regime is under intense pressure and I expect a good hard push to try to crumble it. That push will probably cause panic selling, including gold. The opportunity may be short, though, because the regime is likely (again, my opinion) to collapse or give Trump almost everything he wants in hopes of surviving.

No one knows who is calling the shots for the regime, including many lower level IRGC / Basij officers. They may be talking to Trump, and may or may not have power to carry through on anything they say. Many officers may be wondering who, if anyone, is talking to him, and where their orders are really coming from. So many leaders being taken out shows the regime has been penetrated at very high levels by US or Israeli intelligence, so they must be nervous about talking to each other and be suspicious of each other.

Add the arrival of US troops. Where are they going? Everyone is talking about Kharg. What about the Strait islands? That would have greater impact, and they are easier to reach. What about the Iranian coast along the Strait? Again, huge impact, both for shipping and psychologically. The IRGC has to defend all those places. Can they defend all those places and continue to suppress their citizens? Are US troops simply a decoy?

If the IRGC moves fighters, they are out in the open while moving, not hiding in tunnels, etc, and planes have a better chance to find them.

The US has told Iranians to stay home, not go out to try to take their country back yet. Are arms being smuggled in to help the people rise up? The regime has to at least wonder. What happens if the message goes out, "Now is the time?" Does the IRGC have the firepower to hold back that tide while also defending Kharg, the Strait islands, the mainland coast along the Strait?

Is the Kurdish rebellion / invasion really dead or is that still on despite reports that it has been killed? The Iranians moved resources to fight against it. Those fighters aren't at Kharg or any other sensitive place.

I expect a hard push somewhere against the regime. The markets will freak. It will be another buying opportunity. Chances are high the regime collapses, or does a deal that Trump can accept and the war ends. The buying opportunity will end. I suspect the chances of this scenario are greater than 50%. It makes sense to be ready for it, if you can. I's not a bad idea to have some ready cash on

It's something I've wanted to do for a long time. And the resource updates allow me to do it.

ELEMENT ONE IS A DERAMPER.

Looking forward to what happens when the price of gold really resumes its ascent, which I expect to happen sometime within the next six months and probably sooner.

The only reason this share has lagged some other miners is because we didn't have the resources to assure the market that current performance is sustainable. We do now. Even with today's rise in the SP, the market hasn't really caught up to the significance of this resource upgrade. But they will.

"O'Callaghans is one of the world's largest high grade tungsten deposits, in close proximity to our Telfer mine which provides the potential to benefit from sharing of some of Telfer's non-processing infrastructure."

That doesn't sound like mining it ourselves has been ruled out. It does sound like, if we don't mine it, any agreement is likely to be structured to benefit from Telfer synergies, which presumably means a more lucrative arrangement for us.

Should have specified. Physical gold is Tier 1. Paper gold is Tier 3. Basel accords sees a big difference between physical and paper gold. There's a lesson there if anyone is paying attention,

@Droverman Basel III rules, which govern the banks, limit how much exposure they can have to this stuff. I'm not saying they can't be hurt but it's not going to blow up anything or cause bank failures unless other stuff hits at the same time.

Generally, PIKs are payment in kind bonds, which means instead of paying back cash, they issue more bonds to the lender. That option is agreed in advance by the lender. It's risky and not Basel III friendly, banks won't have much of that. There's also PIK preferred stock in which the investor gets more preferred stock rather than dividends.

Loans where the payments can be swapped for shares are generally known in the industry as convertibles, not PIKs. They can be called PIKs but it's less common. These are even less Basel III friendly. Banks aren't doing much of this because it messes with the capital requirements.

The stuff we're talking about is not Tier 1 capital. Banks have to have enough Tier 1 capital to ensure they will be a going concern. This stuff is not liquid and Tier 1 capital has to be. This stuff is all readily available with a little research.

It's actually not a bad idea for an investor in a gold miner to wrap your head around this stuff because under Basel III, gold is a Tier 1 asset. Banks can buy gold and keep it in their reserves, counting it towards the Tier 1 capital requirements at its market value. That probably contributes to volatility, banks are likely to have massive stop-losses in place so that if gold drops close to where it threatens their Tier 1 position, they'll liquidate to turn some of it into cash (and probably buy Treasuries with it).

@esduk No doubt we've engaged in fiscal insanity across the West. It's not just governments, it's companies and individuals. The piper will be paid. This war may be the trigger. Or, this war may generate a massive peace dividend and get rid of the major driver of conflict in the Middle East, and push off the day of reckoning.

But I don't believe private credit will be the driver of a collapse or a Black Swan event. I believe there's a lot of banking elites who want to regulate it out of existence (eliminate their competition) who are talking about that, that's all. Any pain on that front is largely going to impact those who can afford it and chose to take the risk because of the return they hoped to get from it. Investors in those funds generally go in with eyes wide open. They know there's some risk there.

@Droverman The vast majority of private credit investment is ultra high net worth individuals who are not exclusively in private credit. If there's a crash, there will be some pain, but most of that pain will be in the accounts of people who have massive cushion for pain. Most of this is in 3(c)(7) funds which are limited to qualified purchasers (for individuals, $5 million plus of investments, for institutions, $25 million plus).

Due to banking regulations, no bank will be over-exposed to this. They may take some losses but if they lose everything they have in these private credit funds they will still be solvent, it would take major losses elsewhere to trigger a banking crisis.

It's good to recognize what this is. It's a way for companies to borrow money more directly from investors rather than going through a bank. It cuts out the bank (the middleman). The banks don't like it. The investment companies do, because they become the middle man but their costs are lower. It's a good deal for the borrowing company and a good deal for the investor. The risk is if the company gets in serious trouble and can't pay. Usually private credit is at the top of the pile, the first one to be repaid, in a bankruptcy / restructure (at least, for tech / software deals, which is a huge chunk of the private credit market).

For this to be a problem, you'd have to have a lot of the borrowing companies default. The Fed estimates that in a major downturn you might see a 15% default rate, which would be massive. But it wouldn't be likely to bankrupt a bank or an investment firm, nor would it likely impact the broader market. It would mean that funds that aren't currently in the broader market (they are in private credit instead) would not be coming back to the broader market, nor would they be available for new private credit. That could reduce the funds available for other companies to build / expand their company, so it wouldn't be without impact. It's unlikely to be a black swan event.

The State Street shares are not entirely owned by State Street. They provide custodial services to their own asset managers but also to other asset managers. If you look at the RNS, 4.Details of Present Holders, you'll see who actually owns these shares.

A lot, a big majority, are definitely State Street Bank and Trust. They are custodians for their own managed funds. But a very large chunk, almost 5 millions shares, is Northern Trust. And Natixis, Citibank, and JP Morgan all hold close to 2 million. These shares are purchased by fund managers with these various institutions and held in State Street Custodial accounts. There are a few Van Eck shares in there, too. Are those some GDXJ or GDX shares? Could be, I haven't bothered to try to figure that out.

Someone could probably, with some digging, find out whether any of this is trackers or not. If not, it's active fund managers who just might decide to sell. We can't necessarily assume they are in sticky hands the way tracker shares are. But if not, they are in the hands of fund managers whose research department has done the research and presented the case for GGP, and the managers have bought in.

That could be ETFs or other funds, or it could be managers of Separately Managed Accounts for high net worth individuals. Either is possible. I don't know who manages the large Australian funds -- could be State Street's asset management division is managing one or more of them, and that's why it's showing State Street as owning a large chunk.

Lots of unknowns here as to the total picture but the good news is that it shows broad institutional awareness / interest in GGP. That's actually better than one or two big buyers who may change their minds.

You have it, speedy. The macro case for gold hasn't changed at all. This won't last.

It might last longer than some people think. The more damage to infrastructure across the Middle East, the more money will be needed to rebuild it. Some of that money might have gone into gold, or might even come from liquidating gold positions. So it might not immediately change once the war ends. But the case for gold, long term, will eventually be even stronger due to inflation, etc.

@Huncher, re tungsten. There's times when you sell an asset, even if you think the price will rise further. Are we really going to mine it? If not, turning it into cash now when the West is feeling the crunch could be very valuable. Waiting has risks, and if the money is good.... And if that happens, returning a chunk of it to shareholders has a lot to commend it. Could GGP use the cash? Very possibly but we aren't cash crunched and we're regularly generating it. Could shareholders use the cash? Probably a lot of them could.

Paying out a one-time special dividend out of an asset sale is the kind of thing that convinces shareholders who might have been thinking of selling to hold on. It's not just cash to shareholders, it can boost the share price as well.

Re: dividends vs buyback vs acquisitions, it's not necessarily an either/or situation. If the low SP persists, buybacks would make a lot of sense but that's unlikely.

The low SP is a function of a relatively short-term financial and confidence shock in the markets (probably more the latter than the former). Either the mullahs fall and the war ends. Or they survive but are unable to spread death / destruction / misery for a long time because they'll be so focused on surviving a populace that despises them, and without the military infrastructure to be able to feel secure so will need to focus on surviving at home. Or people get used to the war as the new reality and stop hiding in cash / money market funds as it becomes clear what will be a good investment in that reality. Whichever, we'll see some recovery. So I don't expect buybacks.

Dividends vs. mine development vs. acquisitions? Right now, we're generating enough cash to do all three, depending on how big the acquisitions are. I believe Grezzz likely has it right. A dividend that's enough to catch attention / send a message that we're a player, not just a junior that got lucky. But not enough to significantly hamper other goals. I'm not sure I'd do any dividend right now if I were on the board, but everyone is glad I'm not, lol. Based on SD's words, he expects it by the end of this calendar year, and there's sufficient basis for thinking it's a good idea, even if I'm not personally persuaded yet. It's not hard to see the argument for it.

All IMO, of course. I've had enough practice in being wrong that it rarely surprises me when it happens again.

Not sure it's next quarter but if so I expect the following quarter.

If we monetize the tungsten that could bring it sooner.

We have costs to develop Hav and costs to further develop / extend the life of Telfer. Beyond that, I hope we'll keep a really nice reserve in hand to keep agile in responding to opportunities that may arise. You don't become a major miner by disbursing lots of cash in dividends, you do it by acquiring new assets to build your reserves.

But I do think that dividends are likely to come before long, and that there's a synergy with that and joining ASX100 that means it's likely a good decision. At this point, dividends are a little bit of a short-term thing for what is still necessarily a long term investment. No one should expect them to be very large in the near term, but I do expect them soon unless a use for the cash materializes that is too good to pass up.