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We have a huge find in Havieron: 4.2m oz Au eq inferred so far. Even an idiot like me can read the Hav MRE and see that it'll be at least 12m oz in short order. We have a highly motivated JV partner. Sandeep had said it'll be mined: they're so sure that the mine at Hav is under construction. There'll be a PFS for Hav in September. We can see progress at Hav on the satellite and in the paperwork. There's another prospect within the Hav tenement. AISC for Hav will probably be low: the plant at Telfer and the high copper content helps there. The price of gold will probably rise long term. We have another JV being drilled now. Gold has been found at Black Hills already: it's shallow and 5km from the Hav/Telfer road. Scallywag is not dead yet. There's the other tenements; Ernest Giles could be divested. Newcrest have not ruined any ancient rock art. We're in safe, mining-friendly Oz.
Problems with the decline. It would be nice to have an update about progress. Logistical problems between Hav and Telfer. It's not far by Australian standards, but isn't an easy trip. Newcrest turn evil. Shaun Day wastes the advantage Hav has brought us.
As for the decline, on the satellite it looks as though there's surface disturbance where the vent shaft will rise, and the WRL is relentlessly growing which suggests the decline is where it should be by this point. I think trucking the ore to Telfer will work: the satellite shows the road to be well established and trafficked - you can see two trucks on the last picture at least. I don't think Newcrest have time to risk delay by not keeping things straightforward.
I am worried about Shaun Day. He may well be working wonders behind the scenes, but he has not been a convincing communicator so far. Decline updates are an obvious way of drumming up interest.
I have been tempted to try selling to buy back lower, but I never time that sort of thing correctly, and so I shall be holding. I've done the research and I think we'll be very far above where we are in not too long.
Filter the trolls, do your own research, and hang on to your golden tickets.
RE: 18.80 and how much more can this fall?20 Jun 2021 18:50
I think, Lenz, that the market is taking a very pessimistic view and that we are currently valued on an AISC of more than $900, a gold price of $1,800 and the MRE of 4.2m oz Au eq. I guess this is because we all got carried away when we went to 38p and now caution is carrying the day.
RE: 18.80 and how much more can this fall?20 Jun 2021 17:04
I think Lenz meant that the £195 isn't a reflection of how things will pan out at Havieron. I would bet (which I have I suppose by buying the shares) that the AISC will be lower and I also think that the price of gold will be back above $1,800 pretty soon, and by a lot. The market seems to value us at the moment as if there'll be no more gold than there is in the MRE, that it'll be expensive to dig up, and that it won't be worth much when it is dug up.
I think all of that is wrong and I think the market must realise it too, eventually. The PFS will help because it'll include an estimated AISC.
I keep thinking of that Regis / Tropicana deal. The same in-ground resource value applied here to our bit of Havieron gives us £0.044 per m oz. You can do the maths. I think that as the MRE grows and we head for production there will be plenty of growth in the SP.