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Hi LTL
I suggest you look at my calculations for the initial tonnages due to come out
For me the key to the PFS is how many tons per annum can come out of that Decline.
The Brokers have said 2m tons, Sandeep has said he wants to see 6m tons per annum, how will they achieve that?
2m tons won’t happen straight away, as soon as they get to the ore, sample loads will be removed and increase in time. About 18 months from first ore to sub level caving.
Initial sulphides to be removed 75x75x100m
That’s around 2.3m ton
370k oz
14,000t copper
That’s about $172m of revenue for Ggp in the first 18 months or $10m per month
Just think if Sandeep gets to his 6m tons per annum
Today’s share price is so cheap for that prize
May see their number today.
Going to be a wild ride today..13% up before 8:30
Hi Starbright, your calculation have been done by Andrei Kroupnik and Roger Bell in the H&P DCF valuation from early 2021. Freely available to investors on H&P's website.
Short answer is that it isn't one figure. The production profile will change each year depending on various factors, the biggest factor being the mining method. It ranges from 2 million tons per annum for the SLC (sub level cave) to 20 million tons per annum for the block cave. But also ramp-up years (2 years estimate) and end of life wind-down years (which will be past some of our lifetimes...).
Here's Hannam's calcs, put into yours, for the years of block caving between 2030 - 2042.
Havieron, 25moz(?) with annual production 670koz, AISC at $821/oz = $756,430 gross per year (using $1950 per oz)
x 25 years = $18.9b gross. (GGP x 0.30).
Subtract tax of 30%.
Capex estimate of ~$1.5b for block cave (GGP x 0.30).
Capex estimate of $500 for the sub level cave mining (GGP x 0.30)
However before 2030 the production output estimates are lower due to the different mining method, ranging between14koz (ramp-up) to 187k oz for the years of sub level cave mining. Note the AISC is lower than stated following addition of copper credits.
Note that all of the above will change upon seeing Newcrest's PFS next Tuesday when we'll get clarity on their estimates for the economics of mining the initial upper portion of the high grade sulphide crescent. Expect updated DCF estimates shortly after from Hannam etc.
Starts to give you some idea of the figures involved. For valuation purposes I'm working off them proving up 15m ozs by end of 2022 with 65% moved into reserves and the rest split between Indicated and Inferred resources. With the market always looking ahead 12-18 months. Price extremes swinging between pessimism and optimism providing entry and exit opportunities along the way.
Ultimate resource likely signifincatly larger than 20m ozs but that will be so far down the road the 12-18 months look-ahead won't start to consider it for quite a few years.
I imagine they are closing it pronto if not already!
nm
Great to see. For the questions about why 25% yesterday and the swing back to positive outlook, bear in mind this stock has been getting played both ways.. especially since having to await news and more specifically the PFS. So this acknowledgement that it’s Monday/Tuesday and not later on in year has caught a few people out, those people are closing shorts and switching the long plays/people are now coming back now we are back in favour. This is my opinion and still a way to go before can confirm it’s a trend but I’m actually chuffed a called a change last week I think
GET IT !!!
40 m oz + mine = 10m oz to us =10 billion £ plus MC = 15 bagger min
Bought another 310k this am because iy seems to me that interest in the company has returned and dvelopments here will be quite rapid. We shall see.
All this and this is only just the build up to the PFS . We better hope it says what we want it to say.
Do any of us dare get the calculators out again?
21.8p paid
GH always said it, people just don’t get what we have…..they maybe wising up now
Watch out for potential MM games today, over and above the usual. It's a classic time for them after the big rise yesterday. Just saying, but hopefully a sustained rise.
They gone bust.
we made up 4 months of drops yesterday
can we do same today
I think I'm in for a nice day after being late to the party last year and still got a high avg price
It will be a Birthday I remember
Anyone no the latest short position?
Golden hey, yes it’s been a long wait but well worth it, so nice to see the road North once again:-)))))))))
ATB
Tom:-))))))
LTH and genuine newbies getting just deserts at long last. It's been a long 9 months.
good luck to everyone .
1 million share buy just gone through...
This share price should be well above current levels ....
Good to see it moving north at last.
25p incoming xxx
Tom
We've waited months for this - and it seems to be coming back all at once.
Loving it :)
She is flying:-)))))))