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For anyone new…green bin and green bin the other account
Zoros, that’s what I took from your original post in this thread, as well as the follow up at 933am.
You corrected your earlier calculation to be £1.05b (25p) for 25% of HAV at the FS stage. You also think MRE2 alone should put as at 24p. Just a bit all over the place.
You also said Havieron is a ‘medicocre find’! If that’s the case, not sure we are in the same side. No need take my post as aggressive, I just see too many battered PI’s trying to justify they deserve being in the mid teens as some sort of therapeutic exercise, as opposed to fair in ground value of some of the worlds most economic ounces, with a clear path to production.
We’ll both reap the rewards in due course, so all good!
Texlas30 - I expected better from you. I thought we were on the same side?
You said:
"...Zoros - to be clear, you’re saying you want to sell HAV for 25p (£1.05b) the ‘end stage’ being FS?.."
When have I ever said that Tex? When?
Go do a search back over the last few pages and look at what I actually said and in the context within which it was held. Let me know what you find.
I wasn't particularly pleased with your final sentence either...why so aggressive?
Z
Zoros - to be clear, you’re saying you want to sell HAV for 25p (£1.05b) the ‘end stage’ being FS?
You posted earlier:
“Before you spray a "Z "on my front door and tarnish me a troll collaborator, please DYOR and understand why 3.4Moz = 15p. When the MRE2 comes out = 24p. Each incremental MRE = +Xp.
The 5% valuation = +Xp. Term sheets = +Xp. The DFS = +Xp.”
Which is it? I’ve seen you recently try and be a voice of authority on the company, sp action and shorting, and frighteningly a lot seem to listen. It was better when you stuck to your road maps :)
Definitely a good point Zoros - I really only started investing in the sector heavily just over 2 years ago so still leanring.....from what I gather - it's common for explorers to divest or get taken over with discoveries vs development, especially on their own as the funding and expertise can prove too high a hurdle? Which is why I am happy with the Hav and Juri JV's personally.
Do we have a lot of examples of long running JV partnerships of a similar nature as being very common is the question I guess, perhaps if we were to confirm a discovery at Scallywag or Ernest Giles for instance, it might be a strong play to cash up Hav to go it alone on those?
Still - the way I see it - all very profitable scenarios if they come to fruition :-)
Dip and Canary - good riposte!
I would ask this though:
When the BUM is up and running, will there be room for 2 x CEO's @ Hav?
Methinks SB comes before SD (alphabetically too!) and ergo - will ensure the demise of GGP@Hav.
Z
SD has got along way to go before he can step up, he made a major career error going Salt lake potash, he was fortunate get the job at GGP .
The only way he gets to run a major or big part of a major in 10 or so years is to make GGP a multi billion company.
He will hang on here working like a good un until the bitter end, HAV is a dream come true for him.
I really think he is doing great BTW , it's just where he is, his smart move should’ve been fromNorth star to a major not to a minnow, ( that is if wants to be part of major).
I suspect he wants to build something from small to vey large and make his name that way.
@Zoros - Sorry bud but I disagree, I think SD needs to do more than come in AFTER a discovery has been made, sell off the asset 2 years later while NCM have been in charge of development and then expect to find himself in the running for a CEO role at a major in the near future.
Not going to happen unless he can show some ability in developing and running assets IMO so best he'd get is a role as CEO at a mid tier perhaps - if that - he is still very much unproven as a CEO.
Looking back at his initial stockbox interview last July where he covered his career and experience to date I think he has been building the knowledge base and ability to enable him to do this and GGP is a real chance for him to perhaps try and replicate the success he was part of at Northern Star and build a legacy.
But who can know what goes on in anyone's head plus as we've seen with GGP, anything can happen out of the blue!
No Zoros I bet a few of us noticed but just left you to your dreams ;-)
Texlas30 - you're the first to spot that!!
My 2336 post valuing GGP @ 5Bn is of course absolute tosh!
After I went to bed I thought...damn, got it wrong! Thank you for the correction.
The correct figure (which is obvious) is £1.05Bn, if GGP was bought out at the end stage, not £5bn.
I apologise all.
Jiffy - still a billion pound company though! Adding to this - nowhere on their web site do they mention that they will become miners. The closest they get is 'mining developers', whatever that is?
SD is an M&A man, he is also a climber. He is happy with his lot currently - firming up a minnow but I would imagine he wants to become the boss of a major, eventually.
Taking GGP to a multi billion dollar company works wonders for his CV.
My 'feeling' is that he will move on from GGP to bigger things once Hav is sold.
Some other wannabee will then run with GGP in search of the next Hav.
Z
Zoros, how does 25p equate to £5b?
You also earlier referred to HAV as a ‘mediocre’ find. Lmao.
If they sell the 25% then I would expect a special ( large thank you ) dividend to be paid out and a nominal amount retained to support exploration for a couple of drilling seasons.
Hi Zoros,
Re:' They sell (Hav) for mega bucks and then they go looking for other resources at their leisure.
You and I enjoy a sterling SP and probably mega dividends for ever!'
First of all what you are proposing is an entirely different business model, ie mega dividends paid out of a one off 'Cash Pile'., and yes I get where you are coming from.
The thing is the cash pile will be at risk of running down if no further 'Havierons/ JV's ' are established after a sale of our 25%.of Havieron.
Our only avenue for moving forward to the next great find would possibly be via another JV and all the costs that would entail.
For me I would rather we have a steady stream of income/profit to fall back on, rather like a pension etc, and move forwards on that basis.
In the long term our SP will only appreciate if we can show an increasing Free Cash Flow year on year in order to service a dividend payment.
@ zoros
I certainly get your posts and very interesting. Thank you
Hi Jiffy:
"...Others on this BB seem to think we will sell the 25%, that's no way IMO to build a Billion Dollar company . ..."
I am one of those who firmly believe NCM will buy GGP out @Hav.
Quickest way ever of making GGP a billion POUND company, never mind dollar:
1. If the 5% valuation is based on the MRE2, which in turn, generates a SP of 25p (ish), GGP will be worth £1.05Bn. If GGP then sell their remaining 25%, say at the end of the year around about the DFS stage (when they plan to sit down to discuss the way ahead, re: bulk underground mining) and the SP "doesn't move from its Feb 25p, GGP will sell their Hav portion for atleast £5Bn extra. Making them a multi billion pound company. For them to have th is amount of money in their mits if they stick it out and go mining with NCM, will take years and years.
They sell (Hav) for mega bucks and then they go looking for other resources at their leisure.
You and I enjoy a sterling SP and probably mega dividends for ever!
Z