Just catching up - wow, sulphide zone now seems to have 12m oz dare I say nailed on.
More importantly, a hybrid oil rig mudlogger / world famous geo who can extract hydrocarbons using Jedi mind tricks, and may or may not have discovered the lost city of El Dorado in South America, has advised hard rock go slow and soft rock go fast and we are a long way away from pulling out ore.
Some great discussion today, particularly about quantifying the resource at HAV and how it translates to our SP.
My own view is that there are not many 30 / 40 / 50m oz (80m oz au eq?) discoveries with more than economic grades. Scarcity, in economic terms. None are brownfield with limited capex and, again, none are in the best mining jurisdiction in the world (AUS).
Havieron is an outlier - it’s not supposed to happen, but it has. I still quite can’t believe it, but there ya go. Look away from the MRE, and think about HAD084and the ‘low grade’ breccias.
So our asset is scarce in the strongest sense, brownfield, in AUS and we are JVd with a partner who is managing a negative $160 AISC on a separate mine at grades of 0.9 g/t and 0.5% copper. HAV high grade zone has over 3.5 g/t and 0.6% copper. Cadia and HAV are not a like for like comparison, but the conclusion is that we couldn’t have hoped for a better partner.
Back to our SP, I don’t know where we’ll be as we continually upgrade the resource, get a PFS and progress through 2021. But I do know that’s it’s inconsequential, as I’m here for 2023 - 2024 and onwards. This little exploration company will be seeing revenues from what will then be known as a generational discovery with, on top of the anomaly of this discovery and location, extremely scarce and appreciating assets (gold and copper).
For me, the above is why it’s easy for me to add, add, add to my holding. There’s a value proposition developing which, in my view, values GGP at well over £ within 24 months - not based on what our SP will be on AIM, but market value and what we will potentially be offered by royalty streamers or similar due to the points above - scarcity, scale / size, grades, risk level, limited capex.
Is my valuation and forecast based on HAV wrong? Dunno. 20p? All in. If we find another monster in the Paterson? Hold on to your butts.
Side note - I would like GGP to put more holes in Warrentina and divest, purely for cash.
Jet, the second a broker puts pen to paper it is always a cover your own backside excercise. Risk factors, EV, conservative ounces. Fine. Blanket / grey statements about other discoveries (and putting a value on them) is the same. For the broker, there is always an out.
They are now using the term ‘developer’ and ‘multiple re rate’, purely iro of HAV. We can see their valuation method, and we all know that 12m oz is going to at least double. So does the broker, they are smart people. They can’t say right now, for example, that a good portion of a 30m oz + ore body will be over 2g/t and 0.3% copper. But they know, and so do we.
Developer and multiple re rate. I’ll take that for now.
I know this has been discussed, but I want to put NCM and GGP statements side by side.
GGP presentation: ‘Newcrest has completed > 200,000m of drilling from 204 holes to date intersecting high grade gold-copper mineralisation’
Newcrest update: ‘158,663m of drilling from 183 holes has been completed since Newcrest commenced exploration activity in May 2019’.
What’s SD trying to tell us? 21 growth drilling holes intersecting high grade gold copper, which remain outstanding?
And whilst you’re worrying about SP at 8am, don’t forget what these northern breccia results alone are doing to increase the resource and extend the overall mine life. Once again, ridiculously huge intervals at over 1 g/t, NCM specialty. Last but not least, we now have more understanding of the SE growth at depth...I do hope Bamps is ok ;)
First off, I would offer a huge amount of respect to anyone who considers themselves a novice investor and has held on since the start of 2021. You’ve been attacked from all angles and have had to watch your account balance dwindle, whilst wondering what in the hell is going on. Well done - seriously.
This has been a great week, and not because we are seeing a SP recovery. We have our Scally results out of the way and a plan going forward on our 100% tenement, an AGM resolution passed, and are mobilising for the start of the Juri JV.
What does the above mean? A news heavy 2021, satellite fun and games, and most importantly a clean slate with no confusion or conspiracy. It also takes the leash off of SD, to let him do what he came on for - add value. He did not come here to look after Gervaise and Callums baby (in the non biblical sense!). He will want to make his own mark - frankly I love the Ernest Giles activity, and will watch that closely. I do want some Warrentina action, purely for the grades at surface..
Down to business - Havieron. To the novice investor who might be on the fence or wondering why the SP was hit so hard; the MRE 4.2 number won’t be talked about much from now going forward. Once we start getting into inferred v. indicated and in conjunction with the growth drilling updates, you will start seeing 20m oz being talked about quite casually. Others will then mention 30m to 40moz - pay attention to those, particularly whilst watching the drill results at depth; or just look at Bamps calcs, it’s all there for future reference. Consider the copper grades and effect on AISC, macro and historic arguments for gold price, as well as recent mine acquisitions and in ground price per oz. You can then sit back and wonder what someone like, say, Franco Nevada would pay for a Tier 1 asset producing for the next few decades. Brownfield but development costs...doesn’t matter. The value is right in front of us.
You’ll notice that the SP recovery has come in conjunction with bullish sentiment (facts) surrounding Havieron. This isn’t by accident, and you can choose to listen to Hydro, step outside of ‘supported fact’ and realise that numerous parties have been soaking up shares for a very long time. Or you can call it a crazy conspiracy and sit in your hands - either way you’ll end up at the same destination :)
Prof, agree. The interesting thing is Regis are paying (valued $852/oz) for 30% interest in the mine based on known reserves of a depleting mine, with no copper and perhaps some potential for growth of the resource, but nothing compared to HAV. AISC of $900/oz, thus one must assume Regis are quite bullish on the gold price.
Now let’s fast forward and assume we have a proven resource of 7-10m (100%) at HAV at some point 2021, with ridiculous copper grades and industry knowledge knowing this ore body has the potential to exceed 25m oz. Huge growth compared to Tropicana, bullish gold price and an AISC somewhere between Cadia and Tropicana ;)
When the above starts to develop in earnest, we will likely be 12 months max away from first pour at HAV.
So, as we progress this year into next, what would some be willing to pay for our % of HAV? This is why some of the good posters like Hydro and Spy say things like ‘bidding war’. I’m sitting on my hands just for the entertainment of it all.