Member Info for Texlax30

A hedge would generally protect from negative market movements to the downside, but also limit potential upside. For GGP it’s only the former, as Shaun Day is a legend and we’re getting full exposure to this gold price.

Northern Star is ‘hedged’ and currently selling quite a bit of gold at circa A$3300/oz, whilst we’re selling at A$6500/oz. That’s nearly double….just like 86k ounces production in a quarter is nearly double to predicting 45k ounces ;).

I reckon Charlie Archers £6 exit might now be £7. I posted a few weeks ago that the hardest part of this investment still lies ahead, which is not selling too early. A lot of battered investors here who have been through the gauntlet since 2021 and are now ‘relief’ selling, to each his own. Everything changed when we acquired Telfer and the rest of Hav, I’m here to see a Telfer processing 20MT+ at 1.3 g/t in the relative short term.

Phone home.

Just want to highlight that once Hav is online, it’s more like A$2.5b + cash flow, not A$1b. :)

Lebuge that’s incorrect, to gauge PE ratio you need to look at the annualised ‘forward’ 12 month earnings. I’ll outramp Element and say we are currently at circa 7 PE ratio if we use net mine cash flow as the metric.

SD has played a blinder with the puts as a hedge, as opposed to Northern Star who are losing billions of potential revenue due to their hedge book.

Crazy that people think the big money that has already flowed in is because of quarterly produciton figures on stockpiles. Follow the money…

Agree, nice post Element. And when we start plugging in the Havieron head grade to further increase the average across a 20MT+ operation, the ounces per annum and valuations get quite silly!

Unless October was an outlier for some reason, I don’t see why we won’t get an update this week of December quarter production figures.

Recall we had an RNS on October 7, which provided a high level summary of the September quarter production ahead of official quarterly results. Keep in mind though, this was after the big drop in the summer following adjusting guidance, and at the time SD was looking to make a statement.

Do we expect an RNS this week summarizing December quarter produciton?

Bamps exit yesterday reminds me a bit of the closing scene of Usual Suspects…Bamps posts his 45k production figure, then limps into the passenger seat of a jaguar driven by Rotherby.

I jest. Thankfully the UK PI is now inconsequential on this journey and the big money drives it, I just hope the LTH here see their rewards.

Merry Christmas to all.

What did Northern Star, Evolution, Genesis do today? Down or flat. Folks really needs to start looking at the sector.

Did the recent big purchases buy in for low grade stockpile production in 2025?

Such a shame what’s happened here over the last two days, but then again this is the transfer from PIs to big money.

Yep very interesting gold price action all day, makes me think this could be the start of the next leg up.

This has been a journey for LTHs, and unfortunately the most challenging part lies ahead - not selling too early.

If we have PE of 6.88, it is likely on the basis of net mining earnings (gold price - AISC x ounces sold).

A similar calculation annualised for Genesis (based on their most recent quarterlies) would probably give them a current PE ratio of 9 or 10.

Hi Element, on your earlier comments:

“ BUT all else equal - and matching broadly to Genesis valuation - a direct peer; who produce similar amount of gold, at similar cost, but with c15moz resource:

Then 34x $1bn GGP Earnings = Au$34bn = £17bn mcap = £25/share.”

Where do you get a 34x earnings ratio for Genesis? As you say, we have similar production profile at present and similar quarterly earnings (I’d say we were marginally better). Genesis has a market cap of 7.3b, we are 6.2b.

Agree we are undervalued, but by your argument Genesis should also be valued in excess of 30b.

We’ll be pushing closer to A$300m this quarter methinks, assuming circa 75k ounces and average gold price around 6,150.

+/- that figure, doesn’t matter - we are PRINTING cash.

‘The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the market Wishbone actually has drill results.’ - Keyser Soze

The oddest take I have seen here over the last few days is those complaining about HAV ‘delays’ (based on PFS) because they want their perceived ROI to sail off into the sunset.

If the 2021 version of GGP and the PFS came to fruition, we’d (GGP) produce 80k ounces in 2028. Instead, we’ll do 400k ounces + in 2028, as well as $1b+ in fcf in the years leading up. Someone kept using the term ‘optionality’ over the past 4 years…hmm.

Oh,and we’d never have survived the original GGP thesis of being a minority owner. It would have ended in tears.

The payback period is a bit skewed as it is commences from first production, and the first few years will ramp up to 3.8MT.

Essentially, one year production at ‘steady state’ would cover most of the capex.

Dip, very interesting, I saw you post that a day or so ago and it’s still not being discussed. Quite obvious we’ll have the DFS by Weds this week.

TomE, the company is currently worth circa double what it was when we reached 38p.