Member Info for Texlax30

Well stated, geckos. ASX price discovery and peers trading at 15x-25x earnings…you do the math ;)

Production? There will be a raise before they put more holes in the ground. Good result though

My claim to fame is that I went to the same high school in Texas as Billy Gibbons of ZZ Top….and when we reach fair value, I will be a sharp dressed man…

Their AUD 1,250 includes the copper credits, as they stated the annual gold production target of 225k (as opposed to giving the gold equivalent).

That’s over AUD 3,200 profit per ounce right now, insane.

Riveting stuff, Culpepper, please keep posting these gems.

New ‘target’ - it’s all becoming a bit Wishboney.

GGP revenue for 4-5 weeks on current Telfer mine plan is equivalent to the market cap of Antipa.

That’s the beauty of holding 100% of the asset, Freddy. I can calculate a theoretical dilution bringing us to 8b shares in issue and get to a target share price of 48p on first years production. This uses todays gold price, increases our AISC by circa 30%, and most importantly is only based on a 3mtpa operation. Conservative P/E ratio of 10 - 12.

This is only for HAV earnings, no value added for reserves or other assets.

Bring it on - this AIM penny share becomes a globally significant growth story to hold for many many years to come.

PSA don’t play chess with Shaun Day..

That was a memorable day in 2020, eh Bamps! Recall Hydro and some others advised GDXJ of their miscalc, and we closed at something like 19p with a UT of 27p…? Those were the days…which shall return, in a more sustainable manner at a much higher price point.

De Grey are an explorer, no operating mines.….well behind the Havieron curve, and a market cap 4x that of GGP. They have a very good asset, but huge losses and debt / dilution in order to develop the project and get to the same stage of Havieron currently. They will be in the orphan stage for a few years at least. This isn’t meant to denigrate DeGrey, but more to show what will happen when the pieces come together and the market quickly wakes up to GGP.

If GGP acquire 100% of HAV, the SP is 60p+ by 2026.

Hi Speedie,

I have a spreadsheet model I use to calculate earnings. The inputs for GGP are a 3MTPA operation, 3.3 g/t, 85% recovery and USD 800 AISC.

Using those figures and for 100% of HAV, every $100 dollar increase in the gold price equates to circa AUD 41mil (GBP 22m?) in annual earnings.

Today is a good day to bring up earnings. Our current market cap is GBP 315m. At today’s gold price, 100% HAV earnings would result in gross yearly earnings of GBP 319m. Yes, 1 year earnings is higher than our market cap….we don’t own 100% and still need to acquire it $, but that’s pretty incredible even for 30% which will soon be mined. Some folks don’t seem to understand this…and the above figures are still based on the starter mine without any value in the growing resource.

Bamps, I agree with the sentiment, and recall the PFS used a copper price of $3.50/lb, and today we’re at $4/lb. This should in effect reduce the AISC, as the copper profit is built into that number already. We can’t add the copper profit on top; if you were to do that, you would likely have to use an AISC excess $1,100. Make sense? There was a good chart somewhere in a GGP slide which broke down the AISC but I can’t find it, that would help to understand how much effect a higher copper price would have in pushing down the AISC. My hope is that a copper price $4 and above will fight against inflationary pressures, thus leaving us with an AISC in the $700s per oz.

Sharket, agree to use the market cap. Which is why with 100% of HAV, there is a conservative case to estimate a share price excess 70p (3.5b market cap) based on a realistic P/E ratio (lower even than Northern Star or Fortescue).

Our current market cap is AUD 675m.

With 100% of HAV, first full year earning will be in the region of AUD 600m at today’s gold prices. Caveat this is gross, no debt repayments etc.

Fortescue and Northern Star have price to earning ratios of 14 and 21, respectively. Do the math.

With 100% of HAV, figures of 50p+ become quite realistic in relatively short time frame.

Those who have been in for several years know that when momentum hits, this share moves fast. One day the market will reawaken, realising that funding is in place, the decline will be nearing the ore body, processing plant ready to go, etc. And this is with 30%..

If we do get back 100%, the figures become eye watering. At a 3MT operation, todays gold price, AISC $800, 3.3 g/t grade and 85% recovery, the annual gross profit is likely around today’s market cap. Mind boggling. Rick Rule talks about gambling with explorers to get your 10 bagger, but if (‘when’ IMO) the pieces fall in place, you’re potentially sitting on a derisked developer with the potential to 10x if we do in fact buy back the farm. Still with all to play for in terms of growing the resource, increasing MTPA, organic growth, etc etc.

Indicated, indicated, indicated….5m aueq, happy days.

I’m with you there Nap. I added circa 1.5m shares from 7.5p down to 5.9p, obv took a break during the recent run up. About time to start again, this is a conservative 80%-120%+ return over the next 12-15 months based on the starter mine alone, with all left to play for. IMO.

Don’t really care about the MRE, more interested in messaging from Newmont in Q1 next year onwards.

Same here, Loggy. I had a meeting with my consortium over dinner this evening and one of them threw his lasagna at me. Nasty bunch ;)

SOLG is a great investment if you despise things like producing assets and free cash flow.

I enjoy these discussions on PE ratio and future income.

Goodness me, on 100% of Havieron and a $3k gold price and 15 PE, we’d be doing a Mickey on the 3mtpa operation alone (these calcs are purely on gross profit btw).

100% of Hav on a 7mtpa operation…I’m afraid to even put that in the spreadsheet!

At a 3mtpa mine, 85% recovery rate, 3.4 g/t avg grade, $800 AISC….and with $3k gold price, we’d need a P/E ratio of 70 to hit £2 sp!

Agree with James - NCM did everything they could to suppress the asset value and/or avoid any price discovery event.

Those days are over, SD and Wyloo have come in this past week to state there will be no big liquidity event before FS.

This is why I anticipate a steady but quick rise back to 10p. The market had their hand slapped iro a cheaper entry (raise during cross listing), so it’s get in now or miss the boat (sound the barge horn).