Member Info for Texlax30

Hi Bamps,

What AISC are you using? Keep in mind copper revenue is built into the AISC as production credits.

Star, I’ll take that approach for the 5% if they really want to talk of what is there, I.e. 20m oz at a minimum. That only includes the new HGZ at HAD 104, not Zipa or any other inevitable growth within the tenement. 3 years, and we still can’t find a boundary..

5% of:
3m reserve/indicated ounces at $750/oz
5m inferred at $375/oz
12m at $175/oz

They’re still getting a free 5m+ oz, we have no choice so we can take the circa $300m above plus a Coke and Mars bar, done deal.

Remaining 25% and GGP is $2.5b if they want it now; if they don’t want us around long term, do they really want us sitting on 25% of a known 25-40m oz deposit over the next two years, clearly heading in the direction of ultra low AISC Cadia model? Do NCM want to risk us striking at Scally or other tenements with our new found cash, or continuing Ernest Giles with their competition?

Reckon they could get a 48p - 52p offer to a vote. Surely they see Havieron, Brucejack and Cadia as unmatched world class core assets over the next 30 years for NCM, in that order. I don’t wanna be taken out, but after Pretium I can’t find a reason why NCM won’t.

Just like old times, strong into close and a chunky buy over Ask…

Starting to feel a bit different around here. Feel a bit like Andy Dufresne in the last few meters of the sewage tunnel out of Shawshank…

Aqua,

The 5% deal will not reflect what GGP is worth.

It will reflect an absolute baseline for the value of one asset, calculated via some limiting parameters and in no way representative of what a third party would have to pay for the remaining 25%…of that one asset.

Thing is, this ‘absolute baseline’ will still be well in excess of the current market cap.

“Alastair, I told you to keep quiet for a few weeks mate” - Sandeep

;)

SAS, unfortunately with this 5% we don’t have that luxury. It was part of the original JV, for NCM to get a further piece of Hav valued at a point in time. View it as a benefit for NCM (a discount), and a benefit for us (funding, liquidity).

What we do have is an AISC guidance showing how economic the starter mine will be, some excellent infill drilling with hopefully a few million indicated ounces in MRE2, and some incredible growth results (HAD 104 cannot be ignored).

We were always going to have to let go of this 5% - NCM want it, view that as a positive. If we get a couple hundred million, this company is transformed - clear path to mining, growing other assets, new JVs…whatever we want.

As for the remaining 25%…skys the limit. If anyone wants to attempt to take us out at a lowball 35p, they better move quick as that ship is sailing. There’s more HAD 104s coming.

Hi Pete,

Agree with several of your points, but let’s keep going. If NCM are buying 500,000 ounces (many being in the HGZ), how much are they going to pay per oz?

We’ve already paid some capex for said 5%, and our AISC is estimated to be over $200 less than Brucejack (Pretium) AISC.

Ya gotta just laugh at this point.

Newcrest held 4.8% of Pretium shares at the time of acquisition - when did they acquire those?

Cheers, Paddy - I still can’t wrap my head around it. Wow. Just like that, our excitement over the next two years will include 6 weekly updates on the eastern breccia growth and all the suspense that goes with it.

Hope all is ok at home!

Why are there high grade sulphides on that side of the dyke?!

I thought a new discovery would be a couple of km away, not connected to the main orebody.

The Eastern Breccia already gave us ridiculous 200m to 300m intervals over 2 g/t, but now it’s giving high grade sulphides. Also, just look at the HAD 104 assays still outstanding…more to come!

Remember when there was argument (ridiculous) over whether the eastern breccia was economic? It’s now becoming the star of Havieron.

That alone is the most extraordinary drilling update I can recall over the last 18 months..

25m ounces is becoming more and more conservative.

My preferred scenario for the 5% deal is a method that would be (a) be fair to all parties, and (b) not have to ‘guess’ at any of the unknowns. This method would include a per oz premium, and only take into account indicated / reserve ounces to date.

Let’s assume MRE2 contains 2.5m indicated ounces, ultimately to be included as reserves in the updated PFS. Thus the negotiation would be based on 125,000 ounces (5%).

Now we must find a fair premium for these ounces, and of course I’m going straight to the Pretium deal as representative of recent fair market value. Our ore body is more economic as we have copper (Brucejack AISC over $900), though our ounces have a few years before they come out of the ground. The key, though, is that to date we have contributed capex for this 5%, which must be accounted for to our benefit (again, strictly for the inferred ounces in MRE2). We’re effectively selling our HGZ ounces in which we’ve already contributed to the mine build, thus I want a premium of USD 775/oz.

That’s just under $100m to GGP now, knock off the loan balance and we have a nice pot of operating costs for the next couple of years to ramp up exploration, all while HAV goes into production. Also, a bank balance to assist with debt financing for HAV.

For Newcrest, this gets them their 5% with limited capital up front, whilst being able to wax lyrical about the resource growth requiring this approach.

Going forward and as the 5% grows, we get a cash payment every resource update, though agree a hefty discount as a sweetener for NCM, say $350/oz per indicated. Depending upon the rate of proving up the tenement, this could be an additional $20m - $40m a year to GGP, over the next ten years plus (who really knows how big this thing is).

This protects the time value of NCM capital and limits up front cash, whilst satisfying our short to mid term cash needs. It ensures an additional revenue stream for us, and keeps the JV relationship health. It also keep NCM honest - this is the type of ‘fair market value’ they’ve shown in the Pretium deal.

Most importantly, it protects the markets perceived value of Havieron for both companies. The market would say ‘wow’, whilst both companies win.

Joined 7 Jan 2022 and his first post on GGP was 15 days ago. Knows all about this BB history, yet you couldn’t see posting history over the past several weeks …

They come and go, based on tonight’s outburst it seems this name is nearly up. On to the next one.

And what if he isn’t a troll? Well, then just a cautionary tale to the children of why you shouldn’t eat paint chips.

Amazing isn’t it, YNWA. I don’t have the heart to correct Tymers, you’ll have to do it

Simple math….well done, Tymers.

Awesome, saving this for tomorrow. Thanks Bamps

Fact: Phelps wears socks and sandals. Get a life, pal.

Every few weeks a new one turns up. Phelps turned up 2 weeks ago, surely a new one is just around the corner.

Anyways, top-up Thursday tomorrow, think I’ll go for a nice round 77k shares.

Thanks Prof, good read.

This is the bit that gets me, Hydro, as I think looking at the Pretium deal gives real insight into Newcrest current mindset.

We know they paid $2.9b for Brucejack, and we know that on proven reserves it is say $700/oz, though using indicated figures you get in the $300/oz range. We also know we have copper and a more economic / profitable mine based on current info. Brucejack, whilst having amazing though sporadic grades, has had its issues. Put it this way, it’s no HAV.

If they’re willing to drop that kind of capital in rural Canada for 100% ownership, I just don’t see them stopping at 5% with us when they already own 70% of a mine sat in their back yard. Unless they have categorically chosen to keep GGP alongside for some strategic purpose, I just can’t find any reason to think they won’t try - it makes too much sense for them.

It makes you wonder what language is in the JV agreement - if I was GGP and wanted to see the asset into production over the next 30 years, I’d be looking to sell 1-2% royalty stream, (a) for a sizeable cash injection, and (b) a small dilution of our interest to a separate party might deter any takeover. This then clears the way to move towards being a multi asset company.

Surely anyone should buy into GGP for the suspense and game theory alone ;) All very positive and the only way is up - it’s just how high and for how long!

There’s many factors that can go into the 5% negotiations. Market cap will not be one of them - this is (or should be) a well known fact.

I don’t know why, but I can’t let this go. That’s not what you said, this is what you said:

“If the 5% valuation is based on the MRE2, which in turn, generates a SP of 25p (ish), GGP will be worth £1.05Bn. If GGP then sell their remaining 25%, say at the end of the year around about the DFS stage (when they plan to sit down to discuss the way ahead, re: bulk underground mining) and the SP "doesn't move from its Feb 25p, GGP will sell their Hav portion for atleast £5Bn extra. Making them a multi billion pound company.”