RE: Calculations14 May 2021 21:54
Some great discussion today, particularly about quantifying the resource at HAV and how it translates to our SP.
My own view is that there are not many 30 / 40 / 50m oz (80m oz au eq?) discoveries with more than economic grades. Scarcity, in economic terms. None are brownfield with limited capex and, again, none are in the best mining jurisdiction in the world (AUS).
Havieron is an outlier - it’s not supposed to happen, but it has. I still quite can’t believe it, but there ya go. Look away from the MRE, and think about HAD084and the ‘low grade’ breccias.
So our asset is scarce in the strongest sense, brownfield, in AUS and we are JVd with a partner who is managing a negative $160 AISC on a separate mine at grades of 0.9 g/t and 0.5% copper. HAV high grade zone has over 3.5 g/t and 0.6% copper. Cadia and HAV are not a like for like comparison, but the conclusion is that we couldn’t have hoped for a better partner.
Back to our SP, I don’t know where we’ll be as we continually upgrade the resource, get a PFS and progress through 2021. But I do know that’s it’s inconsequential, as I’m here for 2023 - 2024 and onwards. This little exploration company will be seeing revenues from what will then be known as a generational discovery with, on top of the anomaly of this discovery and location, extremely scarce and appreciating assets (gold and copper).
For me, the above is why it’s easy for me to add, add, add to my holding. There’s a value proposition developing which, in my view, values GGP at well over £ within 24 months - not based on what our SP will be on AIM, but market value and what we will potentially be offered by royalty streamers or similar due to the points above - scarcity, scale / size, grades, risk level, limited capex.
Is my valuation and forecast based on HAV wrong? Dunno. 20p? All in. If we find another monster in the Paterson? Hold on to your butts.
Side note - I would like GGP to put more holes in Warrentina and divest, purely for cash.