Member Info for Texlax30

Shame about that $3,098 comment as well, Bigg. I don’t think Bamps and Hydro are gonna let you live that one down!

Oh dear, BiggL. You’ve not heard of the 4.2m resource (proven + probable) at Brucejack? Do you understand this figure applies a mine call factor to those 10m oz figures and accounts for the stoping ops? And you don’t seem to understand the large capex requirements (drilling and alternative mine construction) which will be required at Brucejack, for NCM to grow this asset.

Why do you willfully ignore the Brucejack AISC even with their great grades?

Anyways, off to play Santa at my sons school :)

Absolutely, Hydro. The size of Havieron will bring us to the dance, the economics and copper will bring home the prom queen.

Even with avg grade of over 8g/t (wow!) the Brucejack (Pretium) AISC still seems to float around USD 950. I’m sure Newcrest can improve on this in time, though this will involve that pesky (significant) capex which BiggL says is not required.

In simple terms, $1 earned at Brucejack equals $1.60+ at Hav based on today’s copper spot. Premium premium ounces…what’s that Hydro, 40m you say?!

BiggL, the figures you give throughout your post are hugely misleading based on incorrect data. You’re using Pretiums own definition of resource estimate (10m oz) which they state is not entirely economic. Why did you not used their proven + probable resource estimates of 4.2m oz? This is even the figure Newcrest and Pretium use…

Of course Brucejack has great exploration potential.

Brucejack has no copper, and you again fail to understand the economics of Havieron.

Why do you not mention the Brucejack AISC well over USD 1,000, which even takes into account the silver credits?

Great to have you back!

Agreed, Spade. I’m still in profit even having bought some in the 30’s and 20’s. I enjoy the roller coaster, just confirms my conviction in the asset and the company and makes the end result that much more fun.

But nothing will make me happier than watching those brass balled diamond handers with averages in the 20s and 30s start being in profit on our way back up. Gonna be fun.

Tymers, you must be fun at parties.

Of course you did, Dip! Much appreciated

What a great thread. I’ll said it loud and proud - I love me some SD.

Best interview to date, and purely because of the Q&A. GGP has control of the questions from Proactive, and over the last 9 months there has been endless bickering and anxiety around the 5% purchase from NCM, why hasn’t SD bought shares, rumors about nickel, timing of the MRE2. SD took these queries head on,and knocked them out if the park.

No more bickering that SD is purely a money man, is NCM man in the inside, doesn’t care about PI’s…blah blah blah. This man is here to put his stamp on the company and turn GGP into a proper mid tier producer.

He’s now surpassed GH in terms of PR, in my view.

BTW, never has so much abuse been hurled at one poster (Hydro). Nickel…hehe…where are the three stooges today?

Petejh, seems he’s referring to finding others assets in excess of 10m oz. Agree with you though, if the next MRE is close to 10m I’ll be happy.

He’s made it clear he wants a family of elephants.

Look at what NCM have just purchased and decide what type of premium our ounces might attract.

2021 Brucejack avg. head grade of 8.6 g\t with a 97% recovery rate, wow. Yet their AISC has hovered above $1,000 for a while now. Their silver production revenue is built into those AISC figures. No copper.

Look forward to the day we get an offer for 1-2% from a royalty streamer, truly put an in ground value on this monster.

Love the gold price action today. Higher highs, ever so slightly..

Prof, not to be a stickler on the point, but have a look at the Newcrest release and the numerous caveats around the AISC figure (I.e. $743 is not their figure, it’s Pretivm forecast). It’s presently $1,099, and has been for some time. Whats interesting is that if we produced an oz. from HAV today, our AISC is likely sub $550 at spot copper prices. That’s likely an additional 75% margin on an oz of gold…

Again, NCM will have a plan to significantly lower the AISC at the Batman mine, at a cost of course.

We’re comparing purchases on the open market for in ground ounces, and there’s a significant premium for a HAV oz. Roll on 2023 :)

Prof, that $743 AISC was Pretivm forecast (early 2020) for the life of the mine, and I would bet does not account for future capex. They have been excess of USD 1,000 for a while now, though I’m sure NCM will sort that out.

Again, Brucejack mine (2021) had avg grade of 8.6g/t with a 97% recovery, yet still nearly $1,100 AISC! Look at our AISC which accounts for capex…HAV economics are world class. Can’t wait to see our actual AISC at spot copper price, as opposed to NCM hugely discounted price.

Don’t believe for a second our sp/market cap is based on proven ounces. The market will turn when she’s good and ready.

Prof,

Thanks for bringing up this topic.

Quickly looking at some of Pretivm financials, it seems that the silver revenue is built into their ‘total cash costs’, which is then added into the AISC along with other mining and operational costs. They also use USD unless specially referencing CAD, and I am seeing a Q2 AISC of USD 1,099. Happy to be corrected, this might just be an anomaly for 2021 due to capex or similar.

So unless I am mistaken, similar to our copper, their silver revenue is built into the AISC as a production credit, thus we can use like for like gold ounces v. AISC when comparing the two.

HAV clear wins from an AISC perspective, and It’s obvious with this deal that NCM want gold ounces now. The Brucejack mine has a avg. head grade (2021 production) of around 8.5 g/t with a 97% recovery rate, yet still a very average AISC. Just goes to show how world class the combination of Copper, NCM and HAV / Cadia are. Truly special.

So down to the comparison of companies. Pretivm has one very good asset (Brucejack) with 4.2m oz (100%) proven resource. If HAV attains 14m oz, GGP (30%) are in a similar position. Brucejack still has good exploration upside and room to grow, and it’s also obvious that people are starting to realise HAV has a floor of 20m oz. GGP current market cap $880m, Pretivm sale market cap seemingly around $2.7b.

The purchase price of Pretivm would put us around 50p. My main point would be that I like the economics and growth prospects of HAV much more, and if we continue on the current trajectory of just letting HAV grow and into production, there’s a nice floor under GGP well above where we are (say 50p and work up from there).

When we start talking about multiple assets, 2k+ gold price, further growth outside the current ore body, etc. you start to see where this can really go in time. Hint: not pence.

Finally, ounces in the ground were purchased today on the ‘fair market’ :)

I think Tymers means 9p, which is still a very good average.

Everyonesawinner with 6m shares at 4p. Maybe not everyone, but you are winning!

My valuation method is to ignore anyone who tries to discuss applying a P/E ratio to this company. This is a world class asset takeover target any way you look at it, and should be valued as such.

Use the $320 per oz. premium recently paid on a separate mine in Aus (Tropicana) to acquire 30% of a 7.6m oz deposit. Tropicana AISC guidance is approx. $1,000/oz, great producer though with limited exploration upside at the deposit.

With Havieron, you have (100%)…10m oz in a few months time? Yes. 15m oz? Yerp.. 20m oz? Well…ya. And so on…

AISC of say $600/oz which will inevitably trend downwards (would be significantly lower on today’s copper prices, alone).

With our additional margin and significant exploration upside, someone would need to explain to me (like I’m a 5 year old) why our 30% (based on a total deposit of 15m oz) is not conservatively worth an acquisition cost of $550/oz, putting a floor in the 60p region under the company. Don’t forget they’re actually buying a 25m oz + deposit.

If I had $4b spare cash,I would consider investing for a 25%+ return, particularly against a commodity which will likely maintain/ increase my RoR along with inflation.

Someone will be along shortly to tell me we must value the company against 2mtpa until we’re told differently. Just wait until the first smell of a takeover, prior to first ore. All goes out the window, the most dangerous thing you can do is forget how rare and spectacular this asset is.

petejh first post in April 2020 below…did you end up retiring? Buying 3.5m shares on a credit card then becoming well versed in mining p/e ratios and sustaining costs (not to mention a chartist savant!) is the stuff of legends, my friend. How is your friend of a friend, btw?

“Long-time lurker here, first time posting. Have been in GGP since 2018 with 3.5 million shares at an average of 1.5
Lovely to watch the story unfold and reward my approach to risk. Bought a load on a credit card back then. Haven't sold a bean since. This represents life-changing money for me, if it goes to 20p then I can semi-retire in my forties. I'll be holding to above 10, after that the nerves may start to jangle! Or maybe not, depending what the results suggest. Just a thanks to the sensible ones on here for your commentary over the last couple of years, you know who you are.”

17 question marks in one post, surely a new record.

Naan of that makes sense.

I’ll get my coat.. ;)