Member Info for Texlax30

I know this has been discussed, but I want to put NCM and GGP statements side by side.

GGP presentation: ‘Newcrest has completed > 200,000m of drilling from 204 holes to date intersecting high grade gold-copper mineralisation’

Newcrest update: ‘158,663m of drilling from 183 holes has been completed since Newcrest commenced exploration activity in May 2019’.

What’s SD trying to tell us? 21 growth drilling holes intersecting high grade gold copper, which remain outstanding?

And whilst you’re worrying about SP at 8am, don’t forget what these northern breccia results alone are doing to increase the resource and extend the overall mine life. Once again, ridiculously huge intervals at over 1 g/t, NCM specialty. Last but not least, we now have more understanding of the SE growth at depth...I do hope Bamps is ok ;)

First off, I would offer a huge amount of respect to anyone who considers themselves a novice investor and has held on since the start of 2021. You’ve been attacked from all angles and have had to watch your account balance dwindle, whilst wondering what in the hell is going on. Well done - seriously.

This has been a great week, and not because we are seeing a SP recovery. We have our Scally results out of the way and a plan going forward on our 100% tenement, an AGM resolution passed, and are mobilising for the start of the Juri JV.

What does the above mean? A news heavy 2021, satellite fun and games, and most importantly a clean slate with no confusion or conspiracy. It also takes the leash off of SD, to let him do what he came on for - add value. He did not come here to look after Gervaise and Callums baby (in the non biblical sense!). He will want to make his own mark - frankly I love the Ernest Giles activity, and will watch that closely. I do want some Warrentina action, purely for the grades at surface..

Down to business - Havieron. To the novice investor who might be on the fence or wondering why the SP was hit so hard; the MRE 4.2 number won’t be talked about much from now going forward. Once we start getting into inferred v. indicated and in conjunction with the growth drilling updates, you will start seeing 20m oz being talked about quite casually. Others will then mention 30m to 40moz - pay attention to those, particularly whilst watching the drill results at depth; or just look at Bamps calcs, it’s all there for future reference. Consider the copper grades and effect on AISC, macro and historic arguments for gold price, as well as recent mine acquisitions and in ground price per oz. You can then sit back and wonder what someone like, say, Franco Nevada would pay for a Tier 1 asset producing for the next few decades. Brownfield but development costs...doesn’t matter. The value is right in front of us.

You’ll notice that the SP recovery has come in conjunction with bullish sentiment (facts) surrounding Havieron. This isn’t by accident, and you can choose to listen to Hydro, step outside of ‘supported fact’ and realise that numerous parties have been soaking up shares for a very long time. Or you can call it a crazy conspiracy and sit in your hands - either way you’ll end up at the same destination :)

Glad to see you’ve come around, Pete.

Go on - give us all the in ground buy out value (Regis) based on these calculations ;)

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for Sandeep to talk about Havieron without smiling...

Prof, agree. The interesting thing is Regis are paying (valued $852/oz) for 30% interest in the mine based on known reserves of a depleting mine, with no copper and perhaps some potential for growth of the resource, but nothing compared to HAV. AISC of $900/oz, thus one must assume Regis are quite bullish on the gold price.

Now let’s fast forward and assume we have a proven resource of 7-10m (100%) at HAV at some point 2021, with ridiculous copper grades and industry knowledge knowing this ore body has the potential to exceed 25m oz. Huge growth compared to Tropicana, bullish gold price and an AISC somewhere between Cadia and Tropicana ;)

When the above starts to develop in earnest, we will likely be 12 months max away from first pour at HAV.

So, as we progress this year into next, what would some be willing to pay for our % of HAV? This is why some of the good posters like Hydro and Spy say things like ‘bidding war’. I’m sitting on my hands just for the entertainment of it all.

Tymers: ‘20m oz’
Mercedesman: ‘10m oz’
Tymers: ‘stick to the facts’

Hi Tymers,

Regis just purchased 30% of Tropicana ($900 AISC) at $850/oz. Lets caveat this by stating that Tropicana and HAV are at different stages of development, whilst also recognizing the elephant in the room being HAV is easily on the way 20m oz reserves in the short to medium term. Tropicana not even in the same discussion.

So....what would someone pay for HAV in 2021? 2022? Better hurry or 88p might look cheap.

Paging JoeBass, repeat ;)

For those with weak stomachs, I would suggest doing something else until lunchtime! ;)

Agree Spy, 2021 will be exciting.

This could be the opportunity MMs are looking for, and frankly I hope they take with a massive shake to fill some large orders.

Hmm. So what are the collective views now on JoeBass, in light of ‘contamination’?

MMs, give us a good shake and then let us be on our way. Glad we can now carry on.

Agree. Always wonder ..if Resolution 5 was passed last year, would we be down here in high teens and low 20s?

These shares sure are getting sticky, as seen this week.

Jack, not sure what you’re saying - GGP were forced to be a JV partner in a Tier 1 copper/gold mine? I would change ‘forced’ to ‘allowed’, btw ;)

Long term future is everything you would want to use the HAV sale funds for (exploration), whilst still being a JV in HAV.

Zoros, my apologies - for some reason I read it as sell out Paterson tenements to fund exploration. 11pm in Dubai and on the Barossa Shiraz....

JV ‘if permitted by the major’...this should only require meeting costs, but we don’t know...

Zoros,

Disagree - that would be akin to Tymers’ big seller agreeing in January to sell his 35p shares for a minimum of 20p.

Why would GGP not just use HAV revenue to exploit other assets over the next 25 years? We won’t get our hands dirty, just write and cash cheques, it’s what non operators do. At least that’s what my message would be over the next two years if I was SD...!

Quickly looking for info on Tropicana, and see an AISC of maybe USD 700/oz (?) and no copper. $850/oz is a serious premium....hmm.

I think I put my calculator in the attic with all the Christmas decorations, might be time to go find it ;)

Tymers, why would a large seller voluntarily take a 35%+ discount on shares agreed in Jan?

And if one large seller at 50m, that would have been finished in a matter of days, weeks max. Not a huge amount relatively speaking...

What am I missing from your theory?

Cdl,

NCM market cap is 20b because there share price is 25 au. NCM share price is 25 au because their market cap is 20b. Hope that helps ;)

I think the timeline of October to December 2020 will ultimately be seen as a turning point of the company, when all is said and done. I’ll caveat that all is in my view incredibly positive for those here for the end game and true value.

When you look at the detail surrounding the AGM and resolutions (DYOR), it’s possible that a stake in the company was going to be provided / sold to a separate company who has an interest in GGPs future.

A certain resolution was withdrawn and, frankly, large fund buying in the months leading up made the above scenario a bit more tricky - or at least that is a part of the story. Within the above timeframe, the CEO (large holding and options) abruptly left the company, a new CEO was appointed, and we had a JV and funding which could be not be viewed in a vacuum. The funding was great (a box ticked), but the JV was inconclusive...who wants what, and why. The potential in these tenements is well known via the likes of Bamps, so we can leave that out. We also now have an ex CEO (again, large holding and options) putting his thoughts forward on Twitter. This last part cannot be ignored.

We are all looking for answers to the past 8 weeks or so. Many consider it a massive sell off and want ‘news’, a SD buy, think a new tax year will continue PI pressure, or even want to compare this to SOLG.

But what if we go back to the October to December timeline, and consider that we have a JV partner who was heavily pushing for a stake of the company (for their own risk management).

I suppose my theory is that GH departure was more of a ‘push’ (or a reluctant walking away) than some might want to consider, and perhaps SD has a pretty good idea of why our market cap has been cut in half.

There’s nothing logical about the past 2 months. The company fundamentals have only gotten stronger, and that fundamental (HAV) is key to NCM future. GGP is also equally a threat, but purely due to being a target for NCM competitors; the Juri JV went some way to mitigate this threat.

We are the rarest AIM share, as 30% of what we are sitting on will end up being a generational discovery, backed by a macro environment and physical gold market which has made this the perfect storm.

How far will some go to have a piece and / or protect their own interest? I think we are seeing it..

But what do I know.