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He titles it Mining Industry Costs, but seems to only talk about Horizonte capex budget overruns on their 100% owned greenfield project in Brazil, and seemingly limited liquidity options which will result in further dilution (circa 85m shares in issue at the start to 325m forecasted to allow further funding).

We’re almost to the orebody, processing plant is begging for it. I don’t see the capex comparison, if that’s what he’s alluding to. Of course capex for a 3mtpa operation will be more, but so will the NPV and IRR, and no effect on timeline.

I would be interested in a discussions on actual operating cost increases, as I do think there could be a nominal increase, but again we are fighting back with copper revenue built into our AISC per oz. Folks seem to use an average LOM AISC figure of $800/oz, which I think is logical/conservative. The copper price as contained in the PFS is still around todays spot price, but gold price higher, hence margin per oz is improving even on the 2MTpa plan.

And as Bamps alludes to, we’re going to have some nice surprises in free cash flow during the early years due to higher than avg grades.

Maybe I’m daft, I just don’t see the comparison…then again, neither does the author.

Chalice released a scoping study, pretty much using inflated commodity prices (forecast) in order to get a better NPV, plus high capex, market saw right through it. It will be a success story, but it basically flagged to the world that they are in the orphan period for the next five years barring a sale..

Meanwhile, little ol GGP about to go mining…22p with all to play for.

I for one appreciate this topic MH, as we’re now knocking on the door of production and P/E ratio discussions.

Let’s use your £90m figure as earnings. ASX average 3 year p/e for miners is 13.3, which would get us around the 22p mark I believe.

22p with all to play for…

Would be interested to see what p/e ratio others might use..

Let’s hurry up with the cross listing, there’s a load of angry Chalice investors ready to put there money here!

Why do people think a collapsing China (doesnt even allow free capital flow), Russia, India are going to create some type of quasi co-op central bank or currency..

China has $850b in US treasuries, Japan $1.1t, UK $650b, India/Brazil over $200b each. All have been generally increasing in recent months.

Shaun shouldn’t be communicating with gang leaders, not a good look for the company…

I’m not sure why any potential raise this time around, with the cross listing, is seemingly the straw that will break the camels back for some. What if he raised at 7p today (slight premium) and demonstrated it would be ‘accretive’ or required for a bigger FS - would that be ok?

AYM market cap is 1.5m (!)…I hope your comparison starts and ends with the g/t!!

Hmm, they’re using an AISC in the mid 800s.

They also seem to be forecasting fully diluted shares of 5.5b.

Speedy, don’t know much about Silvercrest but GGP have approx. 30x more shares in issue than Silvercrest.

Thus assuming there are 20m shares sold short of GGP, that’s circa 0.4% of the float.

In your Silvercrest example, it seems 5 million shares short would be circa 3.4% of the free float.

A Canadian listed company (Alaska property) hit 560 meters at 1.22 g/t, including 85 meters at 3.5 g/t. They have a £70m market cap, and finished down 4% today.

The market hates junior goldies, worse than it ever has. It won’t always be this way…but it’s a problem.

Whopping head grades of 10g/t but still an AISC close to $1,000 (incl silver credits) tells the story. It’s just around the horseshoe from Red Chris, several good discoveries in the area still early days (ie Benchmark).

I’ll take a vertical gold/copper ore body all day, thank you ;)

I’ll put my negative hat on for a moment and say that the 2MT / 3MT PFS is the worst thing to happen for our near/mid term value, and combined with slowing down the resource growth its a smart (err tricky) play by NCM if they did intend to suppress us for a takeover attempt.

I was trying to find producers with similar AISC, which is difficult for good reason! Looking at B2 Gold, they have a market cap of £ 3.7 billion. I think we would need a similar market cap to be 1£ per share.

They produced over 1m ounces last year, and have 20m ounces in reserves and resource.

Based on our PFS mine profile for a 3MT operation, we would produce (AuEq) 40,000 ounces (GGP 25%) in 2024 and then circa 85,000 ounces (GGP 25%) for the remaining life of the starter mine. Hopefully we have 3m ounces (reserve and resource, 25%) in the coming couple of years. I agree with Bamps that these early production figures will be higher.

My view is we need the shackles released by NCM for both annual production growth as well as resource growth, not to mention a semblance of reasonable valuation to return to the sector as a whole.

Couldn’t care les about the 5%, once Shaun mentioned a ‘cut off’ date it became apparent it would be a bonus for NCM; whilst we’ve not seen the JV, the term fair market value should have never been used in this context, IMO.. More excited to get financing sorted, and for NCM to start acting like some of their more aggressive peers and start proving this up over 20m ounces.

Thankful Shaun is in the big chair now.

Zoros, if you’re in or around Oia, walk down to Ammoudi Bay, there’s a great row of restaurants right on the water. Not an easy trek back uphill, but worth it. Enjoy !

GGPThru, you are the man! I was about to type the same about Folegandros. We’ve stayed at the Mar Inn and Kifines Suites there, both in Chora which is perhaps the greatest town on the planet.

Rakomelo…great memories, perfect after dinner and wine. Recall it’s basically petrol boiled with honey and served with a biscuit!

All for a GBP 90m market cap ;)

uou= you
Re=are
tjats=thats

But yes, others should stop drinking…

MH01, if we want to forecast increased mining costs due to inflation, it’s also fair to forecast a copper price well in excess of todays spot price due to inflation / demand. This would easily offset any increases in input costs, as an AISC credit.

Not yet!

(If you have a toddler that watches Cocomelon nonstop, you’ll understand the above reference ;)

You could nearly triple our haulage / transport costs used in the current AISC, though using the current copper price the AISC is still approx. the same ($643).

World class.

Using spot gold and copper right now, the average margin per oz. based on the PFS would be approx. $1,440/oz.

As Bamps can explain, using the same parameters, the super high grade stuff to come out first would likely have a margin of over $1,800/oz right now.

The copper does silly things to the economics of Hav…

Hurry up, Sandeep, this could get painful!

Thanks TT, great article. Reckon Sandeep sounds a bit like Bono today in the NCM offices: ‘ShaunDayyy, blloodyyy, Shaundayyyy’.

If you look at where we are and what Shaun has been up to the last 12 months, it’s obvious he’s been preparing for this since Day 1. Put the team together, prep for debt financing which I hope is next. I wouldn’t put it past him to have some other news in the pipeline (EG, Tasmania, etc.) just to strengthen the companies position. Proven himself to be a leader with character (promised us an updated resource, went to battle and delivered).