Member Info for Texlax30

Would probably be an Equinox / Calibre type deal. Not that I think it’s happening…Greatland didn’t come this far to merge…

‘Fighting out of the gold corner, from Perth…’

You can get yourself into trouble trying to do technical analysis on an extremely low volume share like this.

Hint: coiled spring.

I must say the last several months on this board have been enjoyable, Culpepper playing checkers while Bamps playing 3d chess. Culpepper thought we’d have negative fcf from Telfer and a production gap until Hav.

Hi MH, agree with your point earlier that the $295m is net of ‘growth capital’ and not exactly like for like with GGP. Operational excuses though not allowed, everyone has them!

But the hedge book can sting. At today’s prices, they will miss out on circa AUD 3b (!) over the next 3 years. Over the next 18 months, NST has to sell 780,000 of those hedged ounces at AUD 3,100…gonna be even more painful if gold is sat at AUD 6,000+!

Meanwhile SD buying puts, full exposure to the upside at minimal cost (already built into our AISC). This guy is light years ahead of the market in his strategy.

Northern Star have updated their full year production guidance to circa 1.65m ounces.

However, note they have hedged 1.567m ounces at AUD 3,200 per ounce into 2028. Not to mention royalty payments which are increasing (I haven’t seen specifics).

SD has played a blinder with the put options, as GGP are currently selling in excess of AUD 5,000 per ounce clean and clear, no hedge no royalties.

Morning all.

Northern Star today reported Q1 net mining earnings of $295m. Market cap of $22.5b.

Greatland Q1 earnings of $250m. Market cap of $3.5b.

Roll on ASX valuation - whilst GGP and NST are not exactly a like for like comparison due to (current) ounces per annum profile and reserves, the cash flow speaks volumes. There’s a chance our Q2 earnings could exceed Northern Star’s $295m, and will be reported to the market a few weeks after we list on the ASX.

GGP is one if not the the most undervalued stock in the global mining space.

Just catching up in this.

If I’m understanding correctly, a small private investor (with whom Shaun Day graciously gives his time for interviews) has sent a video link to Shaun Day of said PI sat alone in his car on the side of the road clutching his chest and, perhaps unknowingly, insinuating that Shaun Day and the board (via relinquishing their options) are in cahoots to allow a Wyloo takeover once listed on the ASX.

Wow, color me shocked that Shaun Day didn’t respond…

I’d suggest anyone concerned that games are afoot to make a list of 25+ Oz, Canadian, etc. small to mid cap producers and have a look at their investor presentations which will contain ownership details. They’re filled with 20%+ cornerstone investors….its the name of the game!

I don’t believe the deal SD pulled off will ever fully set in, for me at least. We essentially picked up Telfer and the remaining 70% of Havieron for what is equivalent to 8-9 months free cash flow at Telfer. Mind boggling.

I also posted yesterday that the combined Telfer / Havieron operation free cash flow projections start to creep towards Northern Star territory, when compared to Northern Stars H2 2024 report released a couple months ago. Market cap at the time of that report was circa £10b.

It’s not hard to fathom that our free cash flow from the combined Hav/Telfer operation will be creeping towards Northern Star territory when compared to their Half Year report released on Feb 2025. At the time of that report, they had a circa £10b market cap.

Best growth story in the ‘sector’.

Thanks, Timber.

What say you?

I’m thinking 91,000 oz. Au equivalent.

£93m net mining profit.

Feel the rhythm

Feel the rhyme

Get on up

It’s price discovery time

The grammar does indicate being the result of multiple generations of incesters.

Velo, the 2025 calendar year revenue figures you put up (GBP 390m) are quite off. It will be at least circa GBP 700m using monthly production of 26,000 ounces and gold price of AUD 4,600 (currently 4,800).

Net mining earnings will hopefully be in the GBP 380m plus territory.

Appreciate the update, MF11.

This is just the beginning, and I am extremely excited for what the remainder of 2025 will bring. I rate the news cycle in the following order of importance,for me at least:

1. ASX listing. As everyone knows, this will bring huge demand from a country / market who loves mining and has money to spend; just look at the amount of funds (value) in today slide pack, and super anny funds who will be buying. It’s also all about true price discovery; GGP has no business being valued at less than DeGrey,and I think we quickly pass their $5b market cap in short order .

2. March Quarter results. The market is now piecing together that there will be no production gap between Telfer and Hav, and slowly understanding that they will be producing in conjunction for a decade or more. I think the March quarter results might show the Telfer base case earnings of AUD 150m - 170m+ in net mining profits, which will be a huge wake up call, further supporting the undervaluation based on earnings alone. When you plug in the numbers for a combined Telfer / Hav operation from 2027 onwards (and our ability to stockpile Hav ore and strategically use two 10mtpa trains), a share price of 60p plus starts looking cheap especially as we might have a resource of 15m+ ounces by then with clear scope to grow it.

3. Telfer ore update and extension. Give the final price of the puzzle to the market, right in time for the ASX demand and price discovery event.

4. Hav DFS - show the world what Newcrest has been hiding for 4 years, and why Hemi (DeGrey) pales in comparison .

Today’s updated corp presentation answers every question an insto analyst would have - cash, debt facilities, growth path, all while underselling it at a much lower gold price. GGP is now all grown up. Long story short - 28p+ by end of 2025, 60p+ by 2027. But of course if the gold price does explode and true capital rotation event starts chasing miners, these price targets and timelines could be blown out of the water.

This is as ‘set and forget’ as you’ll ever see.

Velo, it’s easy to see that we will be producing circa 315,000+ ounces per annum from Telfer for at least a few more years (I would guess at least 10 years, but that’s another topic).

315,000 ounces x GBP 1,100 profit per ounce is where I get the 350m earnings figure, which is conservative imo.

And yes, P/E ratios are not an exact science as Element says. But go look at the ASX average - that’s what the market is paying, and will be one basis of our valuation.

All good in the hood.

There’s a lot of ways to do this, but easiest finger in the air approach is to look at projected earnings and market cap.

Let’s say GGP next financial year earnings are projected 350m. Current market cap is 1.25b. That means we have a current forward PE ratio of circa 3.5x.

If we wanted to apply a 15x PE ratio, we would then have a market cap of 5.25b. Share price would be around 38p.

If you apply a 25x PE ratio, we would then have a market cap of 8.75b. Share price would be in the mid 60p range.

It’s not an exact science, but goes to show how undervalued we are right now, not to mention when we have full quarter results and 2026 production guidance and can show the mine extensions at Telfer plus the HAV feasibility study.

We will be consolidating, and I look forward to it. You don’t want to be on the ASX or any exchanges at say 30 cents a share and 13b shares in issue. It screams a history of dilution and when you are generating significant cash (case in point GGP), to have the opportunity to escape this story of dilution / equity raises and general perception AIM perception, whilst going to market on the best mining equites exchange in the world, you grab it.

The folks on here who are afraid of consolidation have experienced it on AIM, wherein a company will grow from 1b shares to 10b shares, consolidate rinse and repeat, all whilst the market cap dwindles away.

This is the 1/1000 companies who will go from having a company sponsored exploration caravan / ute in the Perth suburbs to an Aussie major (dare I say global mid tier) miner.

Calling AIM punters ‘unsophisticated’ would be an insult to unsophisticated investors. Do your research, and read the likes of MH01 who is essentially telling you the value of the company within the next 6-12 months.