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Started: Tartine, 17 Jun 2024 20:16
Last post: Tartine, 17 Jun 2024 20:16
Communication from Genel ... we expect a ruling by the end of the year.
Average time of a cases according to The London arbitration body dealing with it .... 16 months. That would be next summer if it is average ... or end of next year if it is longer than average.
Started: LoveLosses, 13 Jun 2024 13:20
Last post: LoveLosses, 13 Jun 2024 13:20
Started: Roxi, 11 Jun 2024 12:42
Last post: Roxi, 11 Jun 2024 12:42
Here at Genel, nice steady increase and staying there, unlike GKP which jumps up and down all day as shorts play about with the Sp, but good news is just around the corner and both could fly!!!
Started: Roxi, 13 May 2024 09:33
Last post: Jim800, 11 Jun 2024 11:56
In the interests of fairness!
Lots of small buys today mixed with much bigger sells - yet the price holds, or even ticks up slightly.
And a 50,000 buy at 1200.
There’s a rumour out there!
All buys (and decent sizes) for the first minute and a half after opening this AM.
Someone thinks they know something!
Looks like we could tip over £1 if this continues, Pipeline news could see it back over £1.50
I too am happy to hold and hoping for a broker update.
Although there is no news on ITP and Arbitration, production is up, we are now selling oil in the higher 30s and we are well funded. DNO who operate the Tawke license (DNO 75% GENL 25%) expressed confidence by reporting it is also stepping up investments in the Tawke and Peshkabir fields, by restarting completion of 3 development wells that were discontinued last year as a cost saving measure following the pipeline shutdown. In addition, DNO has deployed its 2 own intervention rigs to conduct routine workovers, including repairing or replacing pumps, zone stimulations and cleaning out asphaltenes among low-cost, quick turnaround production enhancement measures.
Genel didn’t report on this. Maybe they just left it for the operator or they are taking a back seat while oil negotiations continue in Iraq.
Nice to see this back in the 90,s
Market is liking the update, hope we can move into the 90,s soon?
I’II continue to hold and add on dips. Steady as she goes!
Pretty straightforward, plenty of cash on hand , production steady and slightly better prices than previous.
Court case progressing well
would like to see a little more detail on the Somaliland progress, maybe hear something later?
Started: oilheadgame, 11 May 2024 14:20
Last post: oilheadgame, 11 May 2024 14:20
Ministry of #Oil: more dialogue needed to resolve contractual and legal problems with oil companies operating in Kurdistan before resuming exports.
Search for solutions with #KRG is ongoing.
An Hour ago
“ Oil companies expect more US visits to Iraq about Kurdish exports”
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/110520241
Started: ciccio, 26 Apr 2024 10:38
Last post: Roxi, 7 May 2024 09:18
90,s the next target, imo
Back to 70s...godspeed.
After the short lasting opec hype the other day, reality returned
https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/resumption-of-oil-exports-from-iraqi-kurdistan-may-take-time/
Hi all, is it trading today? It seems that there is neither volume, nor book
Last post: LoveLosses, 23 Apr 2024 11:56
As predicted
Some people losing a fortune buying at high 80s then selling out at low 80s.
A moment of hype off the back of this report today - expect it down again tomorrow
Panicking , GKP rising fast as is Genel,
Happy days ahead , me thinks
Started: Blumagnet, 19 Apr 2024 02:18
Last post: oilheadgame, 19 Apr 2024 23:42
And Iraq just been bombed!!!!
And another big issue, outstanding payments, who will pay that?
I think a lot of barriers to overcome and it wont be just a overnight deal and everyone is happy.
lot of paperwork , logistics to be worked out.
Black market is will no doubt be a huge loss for both parties who have enjoyed underhand profits for nearly a year.
Same, companies have enjoyed this off market sales aswell, its just they havent reported it.
So if Genel pass the oil to KRG who then pass it yo SOMO who then sell it on behalf of Iraq and pass a little back to KRG it seems likely that not only will IOCs be producing oil with a huge delay in payments but not much of the cake left for the IOCs who actually provide the investment, the knowledge and the oil!
Time for IOCs to get a better deal or just halt production and call their bluff.
Started: ciccio, 17 Apr 2024 10:20
Last post: Blumagnet, 18 Apr 2024 03:00
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34616-Iraq,-Kurdistan-Region-in-talks-to-resume-oil-exports,-says-Iraqi-Oil-Minister
Not only disputed the legality, they have declared the ioc contracts to be illegal and thus invalid.
Not mentioned very often ... Baghdad does not recognise the current PSCs which probably means a big potential for being shafted .... they have disputed the legality of those agreements for many years.
Https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/16042024
After meeting in US
Started: Morbox, 10 Apr 2024 14:46
Last post: LoveLosses, 15 Apr 2024 14:53
Will iraq opening this old pipeline help genel?
Surely they should just drill Somaliland and then, assuming it’s not a duster, sell it to the Chinese, Indians or Russians. All the previous fanfare about it being the jewel in the crown of our portfolio, was it all tosh? Have they changed their mind about there being oil there? I agree it’s probably a project more suited to a company more “geared up” for operating in this type of environment, but why bring it this far and then stop?
Totally agree - been banging on about this for years
Unfortunately no great surprise to anyone invested here over the last decade or so.
All the eggs in one basket for way too long - Somalialand doesn’t look much different either!
Good article
Started: oilheadgame, 8 Apr 2024 12:24
Last post: oilheadgame, 10 Apr 2024 11:39
I have too sold all mine at 88.
now waitng to buy back
I've also sold half from the todays drop, profit is profit! I'm with you the news is all over the place.
Took a small profit. No idea what's going on so I'll step out.... for now
Nice....I was too late !! story of my life
GENL 86p+ finish...
Started: Roxi, 8 Apr 2024 08:55
Last post: Jim800, 8 Apr 2024 12:07
Bypassing KRG and selling via Baghdad and old Iraqi pipeline would be fine (not as though KRG have ever done Genel any favours).
But might just be a bluff to hasten talks / improve Iraqi deal on sales via newer pipeline from KRG.
Who knows? Share price doesn’t!
One says a deal is done, the other that Iraq will bypass KRG. More noise
That would be a nice start to the week, but can't add anything on the news front
Oilprice have always been negative
This may be more interesting
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/North-Oil-Company-initiates-trial-pumping-in-Iraqi-Turkish-pipeline-for-oil-export-resumption
And after the meeting between the two presidents
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/President-Barzani-and-PM-Al-Sudani-forge-preliminary-oil-agreement-in-Baghdad-talks
Main issue here is that, whereas the KRG used to have a good relationship with Turkey and leverage over Baghdad, the tables have turned. Turkey is now at odds with the KRG (they have issues with the PPK who have a presence there) and have now teamed up with Baghdad against the KRG.
The ITP and PSCs can be easily resolved, but there is no political will to do so... KRG Oil is far form indispensable especially given the global supply demand fundamentals and OPEC's reduced quotas; Baghdad is not in a rush to reduce its own production in order to accommodate that of the KRG's.
Also, theres something brewing military on the borders with the borders with Turkey. A military attack by Turkey on PKK outposts wherever they might be in Kurdistan is a very probable (when? I dunno). But he tension between Erdogan and KRG are high.... they are no longer allied as before.
On the Somaliland asset, tensions are higher than ever with now Puntland another Semi-autonomous region in Somalia has withdrawn its recognition of the Somali Federal government paving way to another cessation from the country... this is not good for business sin the region.
Perhaps someone will do what the KRG intended to do before Ukraine kicked off - go into partnership with Russia to develop the gas fields.
Doubt there’s any trust left for further Genel investment in KRG - they seemed to be set on not renewing current Tawke license at Investor Meet briefing.
It doesn't cost any party anything to re-instate GENL's right to develop the gas fields, except for some legal costs and time, so to me that is the only viable outcome should GENL win the arbitration - the KRG can't pay and the FGI won't.
What GENL does then is what I can't figure out.
Fairly good update, the Company is in a good position with plenty of cash on the books, I think Somalia is on hold due to the Political unrest between Somalia and Somaliland, if they start flowing oil there, it could create a big problem, think they are holding back until the political scenery changes .
A link to the presentation for those who missed it -
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/full-year-results-112
It’s 1000 today - access via investor meet.
Register and you’ll get an invitation email with a link.
I’m off for some Pilates to get in the mood!
Looking forward to tomorrows investormeet talks,
Started: Tartine, 7 Mar 2024 11:13
Last post: Tartine, 19 Mar 2024 17:12
Thank you jc-123. Good read.
Correction. It’s 4 layers!
https://genelenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Genel-Energy-Pareto-conference-FINAL.pdf
Also from memory, the drill is supposed to target 3 stacked layers of the reservoir I think. So although the first layer is close to the surface, it will end up being much deeper due to lower sections of the reservoir. It all has to be tested also. In other words it will probably take longer than we think.
Thank you. That was a fist postponement as it was first end of 23 drill time ( from memory). So we are already coming to the tail end of the 18 months period. If drilling is started in the last quarter of the year, I will be happy.
The most recent timing inidication I can find from Genel is last years year end report saying 12-16 months from a year ago. Hopefully we’ll get an update on 26th
Started: MrCareful, 14 Mar 2024 17:05
Last post: MrCareful, 14 Mar 2024 17:05
According to Malky (oil analyst Malcom Graham-Wood) on today's RNS from Genel;
“Genel have issued their updated P2 reserves, which fell from 92.2m barrels at the end of 2022 to 88,9m barrels at the end of last year. This takes into account 4.5m b’s of production and the stripping out of the Sarta reserves, showing that there is still upside at the Tawke PSC, which is generating cash even in the current local sales environment.
Genel therefore remains in a very strong position, well funded and still looking for opportunities to diversify the portfolio.”
Today’s rising oil price should help!
Sorry the title of my last post should have read
"Tawke has largely recovered from the March 2023 pipeline shut down"
Started: MrCareful, 14 Mar 2024 09:20
Last post: MrCareful, 14 Mar 2024 09:20
I am looking forward to Genel’s HY results as costs have been cut and local sales are good.
Any news on Somaliland and the Morocco Farm Out would be a bonus.
Today DNO reported on fields where we also have an interest;.
“At yearend, gross production from the DNO operated Tawke license (75% ) in Kurdistan had largely recovered from the March 2023 export pipeline shutdown and was averaging 80,000 boepd. Post pipeline shutdown, the Company’s net entitlement share has been sold at prices in the low-to-mid USD 30s per barrel on a cash and carry basis and transported by traders by road tanker or pipeline to local refineries. Concurrently, Tawke license operational spend was cut by some 65 percent from pre-pipeline shutdown levels as drilling activity was curtailed and staffing levels reduced.”
Last post: oilheadgame, 3 Mar 2024 21:44
Back to triple digits? Where do we think is fair value now?
Erbil & Iraq agree to resume Kurdish pipeline exports
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34163-Erbil
Started: jc_123, 22 Feb 2024 14:09
Last post: Jim800, 1 Mar 2024 14:31
Years ago the gas from BB fields was the reason for investing. The oil was merely a sideshow to fund gas field development.
Doubt Genel could afford to develop BB until pipeline is reopened and decent reliable sales payments are back and regular.
Im expecting this to rise to £1 over the next few weeks, should be a good return from these lows, imo
I was invested in CNE when they won their arbitration case against the Indian Government. Enforcement then would have been via the New York Convention, although the GoI eventually paid up without the need for it. It allows for confiscation of assets held in any country that is a signatory to the Convention, which is most of the Western world I think, so it certainly has teeth.
I'm still of the opinion that it will not come to that, though. I suspect that re-instatment of GENL's rights to develop the fields will effectively be any award, and not much in the way of hard cash. Where GENL goes from there is another matter. Just my opinion.
* I mean if they want western companies to invest in Kurditstan, KRG can't go about ignoring judgements issued against them. Adhering to an International Court of Arbitration is fundamental to FDI
I suppose if they want any western companies to invest in KRG, they can't go about knocking debtors...
Started: aimtitan, 21 Feb 2024 08:34
Last post: MrCareful, 22 Feb 2024 21:29
Besides the Jefferies upgrade to buy (tp 100p) and them “seeing re-opening risk as over-sold, and a solid balance sheet with net cash to remain above $100m throughout 2024 supported by local sales, even if exports do not restart." Key Insights from Simply Wall St suggests Genel is potentially 32% undervalued;
“Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Genel Energy fair value estimate is UK£1.24 Current share price of UK£0.84 suggests Genel Energy is potentially 32% undervaluedOur fair value estimate is 28% higher than Genel Energy's analyst price target of US$0.97price”
Looks like it's heading back to 70's and staying within a rage until actual news...
Or Kurdistan
"Iraq has also deemed all oil companies active in Iraq to be operating illegally"
what a load of bowlocks....
Sorry - that should have read operating in KRG (not Iraq).
Mobiles and no glasses always a recipe for disaster 😲
Started: LoveLosses, 20 Feb 2024 14:32
Last post: LoveLosses, 20 Feb 2024 14:32
I see GENL's mkt cap now better than GKP's. about time
Started: MarchFish, 19 Feb 2024 20:58
Last post: MarchFish, 19 Feb 2024 20:58
Started: Roxi, 16 Feb 2024 08:23
Last post: Morbox, 19 Feb 2024 19:05
Roxi, I believe scheduled to run for two weeks (behind close doors) and results can take months.
Well something's just triggered a 10% jump
The share price will know any result long before we do...
Hopefully next week, not sure how long the case will run, days ,weeks, or months??,
is it open to public?? or is it behind closed doors???