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Started: Chard_Nick, 15 May 2024 19:27
Last post: Poolefox, 12 Jun 2024 18:13
#DGI9 appoint a new NED with a huge amount of experience who has a very large shareholding. He will certainly be motivated to narrow the huge discount to NAV.Taken from Twitter
Has the AGM finished today nothing worth updating then.
Looks like we had a lot more trades today and a SP increase to go with them. Just a bit of speculation maybe, or do people know something that hasn't yet been RNS'd?
Happy to hold and wait on this one!
Chard_Nick
Started: ShareDummy, 30 Apr 2024 16:31
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 30 Apr 2024 18:34
“ Arqiva also holds a large balance of shareholder loans owed to its own shareholders. For the avoidance of doubt, these do not represent an external debt obligation and should be stripped out when examining Arqiva's leverage. Arqiva's total external debt as of 31 December 2023 was £1,438 million, which corresponds to £744 million attributable to D9 pro rata based on its 51.76% economic interest.‘
A little more clarity as I requested back in February. The key question is what is a realistic value for the operating profits squirrelled away as reserves.
Https://quoteddata.com/2024/04/digital-9-results-nav-slashed/
Let’s hope accounts turn out to be overly cautious about potential earn out following Verne sale! Disappointing Aqua Comms valuation written down again.
Hopefully these changes in accounting methodology are not borne out in practice.
Started: ShareDummy, 28 Apr 2024 18:49
Last post: ShareDummy, 28 Apr 2024 18:49
Hopefully we will get word tomorrow Monday regarding the US$ 25m due 26 April. Annual accounts also due by end of month. Might give a boost to the share price. Seems to be range bound 20-22 p.
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/digital9_infrastructure_plc/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2647&newsid=1803902
Started: duncyboy, 6 Apr 2024 08:37
Last post: wskill, 19 Apr 2024 12:27
Mentioned on other site about JPM but all I could find is the Barclays 50p target from 6th Feb this year nothing else recent.
Upgrade of DGI9? Link please ... I'm waiting for the extra £20 m to land .... should have landed already but 26th is the other deadline.
Has anyone seen the JPM upgrade today
I'm hoping for a lot more than this given there is £3.6BN so £2+/ DGi9 share of retained earnings in Arqiva?
Never mind the fact that Arqiva is a going concern that is throwing off £300M+ in cash per annum, on £800m of net assets!
Seizing effective control of Arqiva pre-float should be the no 1 priority of the board.
or have I misunderstood this?!
Started: duncyboy, 4 Apr 2024 18:09
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 5 Apr 2024 14:46
“ 51.76%? A majority shareholder” … No .. refers to Economic interest. DGI9 is a 48% shareholder.
As I wrote below, when the £20 million deferred payment lands in the bank account, expect another few pence rise.
I’m expecting a 50p a share return with Arqiva IPO, up to 20p a share from performance targets from sold assets, but not banking on it, and whatever cash is left over from asset sales having paid off debt and management fees.
We will see.
This is exactly the transparency I want to see. What Dgi9 needs now is - pretty obviously - more buyers. Buyers will come in when there is clear and evidenced upside potential through cash distributions - i.e income from the portfolio NOT any analysis over 'NAV'. Unlocking the value in Arqiva about the largest potential catalyst to shareholder value, we're hearing NOTHING about it - how exactly do they imagine the shareprice to react and the market price to NAV to narrow.
51.76%? A majority shareholder, so how are D9 using their power? Zero evidence to date! Just no transparency about this investment and how or when it can be realised! Need to be a patient investor. Meantime IM and other fees etc pile up at small shareholders ‘ expense. No wonder the big boys have sold out! I just wish I had confidence in the DG9 board, if there are still directors there! Wishful thinking methinks.
Your so called “managers” in the current market on average have around a 40-65% chance of beating their benchmarks and is why the sector is in decline … the managers in my view, would do better trading their benchmarks and not bothering with stock picking from the benchmarks…. While the advantage for folk like us, is picking up assets below NAV and hoping for a NAV sale of assets.
Outside of the above, with the time taken to find a good manager … might just as well take Buffet’s advice and pick an index on leverage.
"carefully chosen words"
Too true. And I've no doubt the scenario is more complex that I am aware of / perhaps can even comprehend.
Which is why I employ 'experts' as managers of my assets!
I would have thought that the alleged Macquarie situation would be an ideal time to force the issue - bizarre that the IPO price is a secondary issue to the IPO itself as a restructure....
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 4 Apr 2024 12:15
... and I picked up on exactly the same phrasiology from the reports. Nothing "pedantic" about it ... it's good detective work and attention to (mis) detail.
Good luck with your request duncyboy - the half glass full account is that DGI9 hoped to be able to access cash flows when buying Arqiva and subsequently found out that it could not. The alternative half glass empty account in respect of DGI9 reporting is probably best left unwritten until the assets are sold off. But I have pointed out the half glass empty interpretation to DGI9 as of a couple of weeks ago, but not my problem since I did not buy in until December 2023.
I am no lawyer. But I am a pedant. And this 'sounds' very much to me that DGi9 is being sold as having the rights to Arquiva's cashflows. This is direct from the June 2023 update, and I have asked the chair for clarification on this: "Accrued interest must be repaid in full before distributions can be made to the Group. After the fourth anniversary of the VLN, the Group can only receive distributions if the entirety of the VLN principal and any rolled up interest has been repaid in full. The Company expects Arqiva’s future cashflows to cover D9’s VLN interest payments.""
As I stated below DB … so correct. Bear in mind Arqiva pulled it’s IPO in 2017, and sold off £2 bn of assets in 2019 or so to Cellnet to pay off shareholder loans etc.
Arqiva makes its money from broadcasting on decline but is growing its IoT business.
I’m very rusty on broadcasting, but I use broadcast to save IP bandwidth at home, while broadcast frequencies are relatively low hence large rooftop ariels from memory so I’m not sure if these frequencies will be able to switch over to streaming on hand held devices … someone more up to speed can fill in whether feasible … but either way I think broadcasting will stay up to 2040 at leadt.
To me this suggests these reserves are explicitly tied to equity, the issue is how they are realised into cash in any form - and into DGi9's share price. Conceivably, this requires an IPO if we cannot restructure the company from a largest shareholder but minority position and take distributions. Penny for any other Arquiva large shareholder's thoughts who might want an IPO to realise some cash...and when?!
Started: duncyboy, 4 Apr 2024 08:25
Last post: duncyboy, 4 Apr 2024 08:25
Im reading on other boards that Macquiarie want to sell their stake in Arqiva....if true why can't DGi9 and them assume effective control of the company with a combined 73% shareholding, insist on dividends, and push towards a float and a crystaliization of these supposed enomormous reserves to realise the value?!
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 28 Mar 2024 17:08
On reflection, I'm thinking the Arqiva buy came up and it was just too good an offer to refuse. The Arqiva deal bust DGI9 in terms of cash flow going forwards - true - but the intrinsic value here is too good to miss IMO and now with Verne Global sold off I'm with Old Bloke in his valuations.
Yes wonderfully put! This has much better described what I mean, there is serious value even in half the business fire sale / liquidation scenario...
“ there must be some value in the masts positioning etc ‘ Well yes … these are all listed in Arqiva Global annual reports. Let them rust …. to get access to the reserves.
Broadcasting will give Arqiva ripe revenues for the next 10 years and more. Old Bloke wasn’t aware of the assets locked up in reserves …. when I chatted to him a couple of weeks ago … and the market still doesn’t understand as far as I can gather than the £163 million VLN bought a 50% economic interest in Arqiva shareholder loans, that themselves are for want of a better phrase secured on the assets tied to subsidiary reserves.
There is £3.6 billion of historical operating profits locked up in Arqiva reserves but none of this appears on balance sheets because Arqiva is a private company.
To be fair, and this is a total punt, there must be some value in the masts positioning etc for other forms of communications even if it's not what Acquiva might currently offer....
Last post: duncyboy, 28 Mar 2024 15:02
Just very frustrating looking a comparable metering businesses being taken private at x20 where (according to Oak bloke) Arquiva smart metering business has more market share etc - and it's value is trapped in this structure. I wonder if a build up and float could be on the cards, when the business is more established and the timing's right. One lives in hope etc.
Started: Geldautomat, 15 Mar 2024 09:07
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 28 Mar 2024 09:35
The challenge lies with unlocking value in Arqiva.
A very different situation now to Verne sale, we’re no longer as distressed
So NAV 84p a share 70% haircut for selling costs as per Verne Global minus RCF gives me 50p a share …. Works for me.
Quite a few funds are selling according to FT .... if it takes 2 years to realize gains, that's cash tied up for some funds that they may want to work elsewhere ... there are enough UK stocks down 50% the past two years.
For me, the deal breaker to hold revolves around what the VLN bought - a 50% stake in the shaholder loans is massive. Shareholder loans come before equity in the case of bankruptcy but after bank loans. Arqiva Limited has £3 bn in reserves as operasting profits squirreled away each year.
The VLN has to be paid off in a few years so current assets even on firesale will pay off the RCF and VLN ... where I would expect an IPO of Arqiva to be worth around £0.80 - £1 a share for DGI9 holders with an IPO buying out DGI9 equity stake for £350 million and the 50% interest in shareholder loans.
Enjoy.
Who the hell is selling. 30p minimum now
Started: BeanCounting, 14 Mar 2024 08:25
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 15 Mar 2024 07:39
Sold!
Highly possible and probable
Has Verne just been signed?
That's got to be II money. Surely there a company who'd prefer to own all these assets at a discount
252000 just got taken out on level II
Last post: damofarl, 13 Mar 2024 19:00
I voted against the wind down . I'd rather they took 10 years passively running the current assets out.
If they can't obtain scale, the reason for wind up, why not merge with CORD, to aid scale, and economies of scale. At least then those of us who believe in DGI9's assets can see and reap their fruition.
Started: baldmark, 11 Mar 2024 14:27
Last post: baldmark, 11 Mar 2024 17:31
I don't dispute that they are getting a very good deal.
The question is, would our creditors allow us to wait for it to be snapped up by someone else if Ardian decide that they want an even better deal?
On the back of 33% revenue growth unlikely, as it would get snapped up by someone else, they are already getting it too cheaply
I hope this is a red herring, however is anyone able to definitivly answer this?
Is there any way that Ardian could either pull out of or renegotiate the Verne Purchase at the last moment to take advantage of the fact that we appear a distressed seller? (i.e. How binding and enforceable is the "definitive agreement" described in the 27 November RNS?) Obviously, if there are other potential buyers, they run the risk of loosing a sale which, if they have the funds, is likely to prove profitable to them. However this sort of thing happens all the time in the housing market and also seems to happen in the corporate market too - a recent example, of which I am all too aware, being the sale if IM Minerals Ltd by Pathfinder Minerals Plc to Acumen Advisory Group LLC where AAG dropped the price after the initially proposed completion date and PFP was in no position to object.
Started: Thunder2040, 8 Mar 2024 16:41
Last post: Thunder2040, 9 Mar 2024 14:53
Https://www.economist.com/business/2023/12/20/big-tech-and-geopolitics-are-reshaping-the-internets-plumbing
These assets are in high demand, I see low risk in divesting at decent prices make no mistakes,this is value at its deepest and truth will out soon
The Verne deal is not over until it’s signed … and funds exchanged … look I’m long here … where in terms of risk reward I’m happy to keep a position otherwise I’d stay clear … while every 1p drop in holding average is a 4% gain with an unknown time period of realisation for any gains.
That’s high risk in my view.
There is not a high risk of bankruptcy in my view...I think it depends of 2 things, if you think the Verne sale completes and if you think Arquiva isn't a basket case (which I think it is far from)..I think the biggest thing weighing on it is the delisting, seen that many times, and I think it was premature to mention that before Verne even completed
Morning Star has a blank on holders as does the II investment site. The rationale is simple enough - high risk of bankruptcy, albeit reduced this week. Watch that gap close to 20.5p. Hedge funds will have worked out institutions are dumping and joined in the fun. The trades and intraday share movements are classic ... reminds me of Quindell back in 2014 was it?
However, I dug a little deeper with some spare time:
https://markets.ft.com/data/investment-trust/tearsheet/profile?s=DGI9:LSE
Gives an interesting view on recent share transfers across institutions. Around 17 million shares dumped to unknown holders with 6 million transferred to other institutions.
I have a core hold that I'm prepared to lock away for as long as it takes, but outside of that I look to day trade to get the average down selling into rallies and buying heavy dips.
Don't think it's a shorter..there is no rationale for doing that, if they remain short until delisting they would effectively lock in their eventual loss..more likely a fund without the patience to see this through, which is what is wrong with investing today ..no patience, ignoring deep value and fundamentals...really the mind boggles at who manages people money these days
Started: Geldautomat, 7 Mar 2024 14:13
Last post: Thunder2040, 7 Mar 2024 14:48
I think they are likely to show their hand after Verne completes if they don't want it...else they have 3 weeks tops if they want Verne for themselves...of course perhaps with not so many investments left a takeover of all would be unlikely, but if there is no liquidity constraints why eould they accept any lowball in Arquiva...I think people misunderstanding the way that investment is structured tbh
TO would be the best as the bid will move up to meet the offer price and present shareholders an early exit opportunity. There must be someone out there looking this over at this MC, even if they'll break up the assets and sell them off post TO.
My list of catalysts:
-completion of Verne
-NAV calc
-results
-smaller investment disposal news
-t/o bid
-TR1 notification of whoever is selling now to say they stopped lol
I might vote against the wind down as I don't really want a delisting tbh, would rather it got taken out which I think is realistic given how cheap it is
Next trigger upwards will be shareholder approval ?
Started: Roddy1981, 6 Mar 2024 22:33
Last post: Thunder2040, 7 Mar 2024 13:52
I should have said sit tight, I am invested, just not playing this game with whoever is dumping...why do that just a few weeks before Verne completion.. madness
I'd rather "sit it out" with an average of 20p rather than the 30p I first bought into in December. Each to their own.
I have watched the action here and hold, I think and institution is selling out, and may well have been for a while, every rise is heavily sold into and you know what fair play to them if they want to walk away on a whopping loss but I can sit it out thank you and get far better returns when everything is sold down in an orderly manner...a defensive minded investment trust should not be this volatile either, it will settle down once the latest NAV is released and Verne completes, so about 6 weeks tops for the uncertainty and games to go in in my view
5.00am sell of 230,000 on level II has been putting a ceiling on prices … seen this hedge fund do damage with Seplat and other UK stocks using HFT tactics …. This share is a game of poker … Rechecking I got 25.2p yesterday morning on the ISA for a small amount … remember they want your money and you want theirs ….
On this but does feel like it may have turned a corner today, I would hope on Verne close we could see 30p plus.
You don't often get to say that a share that has gone up 30% is still 30% undervalued. So I will!
Arqiva, ariva ariva! Next stop the arrival of KKK....
Last post: Thunder2040, 6 Mar 2024 13:30
Adrian could pay off the revolving loan and buy out digital 9 entirely...based on current price...absurd. Aquiva is undervalued as it stands too imo.
" This is not a share to day trade" ... maybe a buy and hold now .... but I was buying 17-19 and selling 18-20 for a few weeks.... although was somewhat stunned by the intraday drop to 14por so ...... such is the market.
" or will be satisfied shortly before completion of the verne transaction.‘"
the management are presumably trying to say that the deal is not over until its signed .... but what a ********" way to make the statement .... and that's the problem .... the deals themselves bought by dgi9 seemed good value .... but to get caught out by interest rates rising is poor.
RNS 8th February: "the Icelandic Regulatory Approval, has decided to open a "Phase II investigation" into the Verne Transaction". This spooked investors because of the possibility of a delay or no sale. Share price crashes (further!).
RNS 6th March: "unconditional merger control approval in Iceland was granted on 5 March 2024". Problem from 8th February solved, share price jumps up.
Sort of logical except that the crash on 8th Feb was an over reaction.
ToD, I agree "value is meaningless IMO" in the very short term. This is not a share to day trade since you will be at an information disadvantage.
However in the longer term it is everything. Given that the liquidity problem has been dealt with this is the lowest risk way to double my money over the next 3-5 years I can find at the moment. Definitely one to buy and hold. It is currently the largest position in my portfolio and the one I will lose the least sleep over.
Started: Thunder2040, 28 Feb 2024 07:35
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 29 Feb 2024 12:51
Longer term investors are already “loosers” and given potential losses the annual ISA contribution the least concern. While anyone holding DGI9 looking for a quick buck takes their risk - as now clearly highlighted in yesterday’s RNS.
In my view, the DGI9 share should have been suspended the moment the decision to wind down was made pending confirmation by shareholders - don’t really give a dam about sideline issues ….
I bought back more yesterday, revenues look fine, interest rates look like they will fall, I expect hedge funds to be dipping their hands into their pockets to buy me out.
GLA.
"All that will happen is that ISA holdings will move to trading accounts …"
I agree that your investment won't be wiped out in that case, however it will be involuntarily transferred out of your ISA and you will loose that amount of ISA allowance. Some investors aren't constrained by the 20K annual max you can transfer to an ISA; some are.
Another concern with an unlisted stock is that you can't easily sell it if you need to. Even if you are planning to hold to wind-up, the optionality still has value which is reflected in the price.
At first glance it looks like the RNS confirms what most posters on here expected. Why some shareholders are dumping is a mystery, it's a bit like being told it's going to rain then getting upset when it does.
The “company” also stated today it will look to add short term debt if needed assuming I read correctly.
All that will happen is that ISA holdings will move to trading accounts …
Started: Thunder2040, 28 Feb 2024 10:46
Last post: Thunder2040, 28 Feb 2024 10:46
Volume isn't anything special, shorters taking advantage here I think, it's an infrastructure fund, the underlying holdings are not high risk...it's just liquidity issues
Started: Thunder2040, 26 Feb 2024 14:59
Last post: LayLadyLay, 26 Feb 2024 17:16
The financial calendar doesn't show anything for 2024 (yet) but last year results were on March 9th and in 2022 March 17th.
Does anyone know what date results are here?
Started: Stealthj89, 9 Feb 2024 08:56
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 22 Feb 2024 16:03
More likely results have been mooted under the table… in my view … week to go shorts buying back my view.
A return to 30p seems logical in the short term. Better to buy here for the long game. The SP should react positively on news of sales so the end value can be calculated more clearly. If several of the early assets get 70/80% of NAV then the SP should move up accordingly.
I don't actually rule out getting about 80% of current NAV here in the long run
Stealthj89, I've been looking over the posts and noticed your question.
It's a long term play, the additional £100m from the Verne sale is based on performance targets for 2026. I'm guessing these will be measured against the 2026 accounts which will at best take 6 months. So I think the earliest end of the wind down is June 2027.
A long-term hold for private Investors a sell for wealth managers and institutionals.
One for the bottom drawer, it could turn out to be very profitable but a painful journey with the share price spiking when insiders get wind of asset sale prices.
"The Board intends to immediately commence sale preparations for the Company's wholly-owned assets ahead of launching competitive processes later this year. "
The board are not in a hurry to sell assets .... but bear in mind as assets are sold, management fees relative to income will increase so head count needs to reduce proportionally.
Started: Chard_Nick, 15 Feb 2024 16:51
Last post: Thunder2040, 22 Feb 2024 08:59
Also this AI trend is going to lead to huge demand for data centres...the price they are selling Verne for is probably on the low side but I think with data storage prices going up surely the earn out is quite achievable
Don't really see why it's dropped from 28p now
To answer my own question - probably!!
Regards Chard_Nick
To come out from behind the sofa?
Hopefully, we'll do well out of this one!!
Good luck to all LTHs
I can't wait to read an update from 'The Oak Bloke'. Another of his picks crashed and burnt. What will he say this time?
Bad numbers and bankrupt numbers are not the same thing. I see value here and am prepared to take the risk, and I expect a reward if the risk taken lands in my favour.
At the end of the day, the consultation extension is a few months, and the Icelandic concern the weight of investment of Ardian France SA in Iceland if I have read correctly.
My bet is that 3 months won't make much difference to DGI9 given revenues, and that approval will follow.
Thereafter, looking at the Arqiva transaction, £300 million went towards equity with the rest VLNs that in principle earn a return for DGI9 has holders.
We will see.
Temp le if you are expecting bad numbers why are you still invested?
"a suspension now." There I agree ... should have been suspended after the announcement of the wind down until clarity prevailed. Too late now.
Started: ShareDummy, 9 Feb 2024 18:27
Last post: ShareDummy, 9 Feb 2024 18:27
I cannot understand why the directors did not defer any decision on the strategic review until after the Verne sale had completed. Surely, this would then have created greater clarity about the future options for the company and aided their decision making? I think it was premature to announce a managed wind down at this stage with the Verne sale still up in the air. I just don't think this board of directors is up to the job. In a few weeks, we will get a trading update, an "independent" valuation of the assets and the full annual results. These documents will tell a tale. Meantime, I cannot believe this company's market cap is around 150 million today! If I had bigger pockets and could afford to wait, I would certainly be loading up at the current price. Someone is going to make a killing on this company, but not the small shareholder methinks! AIMO