Diversified Energy Share Chat (DEC)

Around £12 so strength continued into the close

Worya

"Im currently out of dec, but if the opportunity arises I might jump back in."

From what I recall you did well getting out of DEC and tend to think you will have opportunities to get back in lower than your exit point which I think is already the case. Trade this share, make money, hold too long and lose.

"the main weigh on the sp is likely the level of debt this company has, nobody is comfortable with this level"

This is very true, but add in dividend cut, share dilution and an ever increasing ARO liabilities.

"If rusty what to improve the look he's going to have to reduce the debt, far easier said then done mind you"

Rusty does not care he just added another $210m and it looks likely along with future decent reports will come more acquisitions to try to hide the effect on the SP of another Trusty Rusty deal, Rusty will not stop, he has to be stopped to reduce the debt and for the SP to properly recover which is far easier said then done.

Im currently out of dec, but if the opportunity arises I might jump back in.

Looking from the outside I feel the main weigh on the sp is likely the level of debt this company has, nobody is comfortable with this level.

If rusty what to improve the look he's going to have to reduce the debt, far easier said then done mind you

"Rusty is confident as he has one very steady income stream"

Then he should be able to restore the dividends or at least go some way,, be able to reduce the debt instead of constantly increasing it at higher rates and restart the BB program to reduce some of the huge recent dilution.

DEC shares are owned mostly by IIs with all the research and info at their hands I doubt they are misunderstanding DEC, add in they have to pay almost 10% to get the debt away to IIs due to risk, they do not believe DEC is undervalued.

The issues is Rusty will not stop (as he stated recently) with acquisitions all of which have reduced DEC's SP and added huge amounts of debt and dilution, it is very simple markets do not like companies with high debt especially companies where this debt is at high rates. This is why DEC has performed multiple times worse than it peers and as far as EQT is concerned, DEC buys assets from EQT, DEC SP goes down EQT SP goes up, what does that tell you about how good the deal was, Maverick had to take shares to unload their unwanted assets to DEC, puts someone on the board then sells all the shares ASAP, shows you what a company with expertise in the same area think of DEC's acquisition strategy.

Rusty is confident as he has one very steady income stream, currently misunderstood and I feel undervalued. He’s not the only one with a pile of cash….. so I can’t imagine the equity will remain undervalued too long now.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-next-weapon-wield-power-110000180.html

Good sign hopefully

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1091869/diversified-energy-company-inks-1-175bn-oklahoma-acquisition-alongside-carlyle-1091869.html

Https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/dea7eb4b-918f-4a1d-9507-e8a34c55400c

H**ps://www.ft.com/content/ca18d66c-3f22-4e5f-96b0-701cff4b2d32?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Appeared without a paywall for me.

About Carlyle Group and financing new deal / AI power demand.

AceofClubs

To add to your comparison I have not done the total returns but just on share price comparing DEC to it's closest peers in the last 5 years.

DEC down 57%

EQT up 177%

Comstock Resources up 161%

Antero Resources up 241%

Or to put it another way

EQT performed 310% better than DEC

Comstock Resources performed 282% better than DEC

Antero Resources performed 422% better than DEC

It takes some doing to under perform like DEC in what is a rising market but for Rusty it is easy, just find a failing strategy and test it to destruction and beyond. It is working so well if your aim is the trash the SP, trash the dividend, dilute shareholders, put massive debts on the company and increase the ARO liabilities by a large amount. Well done Trusty Rusty could not have done this without you.

Rusty is lining up yet another deal to relieve some seller who doesn't appreciate the real value of the assets they are selling. EQT and Chevron were two earlier victims of Rusty and his commercial nous. In the past five years EQT has delivered a total return of +228% to shareholders, Chevron +128%, DEC -12%. The opportunity cost of holding DEC has been huge.

DEC has now published its 2025 accounts in IFRS format which may be more familiar to UK shareholders. They tell us that in 2023 DEC paid $168M to shareholders (dividends) and $131M to bondholders in interest and sundry costs. The comparable figures in 2025 were $85M & $236M. Long Term Debt was $1,484M in 2024 (2023 number not given) and $2,704M in 2025. ARO's, costed at $642M in 2024, jumped 92% to $1,233M!

I have looked at the company presentation for the latest quarter. The cash flow figures, which are the less easily fudged, on page 21, are nonsensical and do not even refer to the current quarter. Operating cash flow has been fudged by "adjusting" in $101M of asset disposals.

I wish all holders good luck and a long war: I think you may just need both.

AceofClubs

Jim800

"Terry, why would they include the debt from a deal anticipated to conclude in Q3 in Q1 results?"

It is true this is not for these results but when you have misleading statements

"$92 million of systematic debt reduction"

When the debt is rising this is not good especially as these announcements are now timed to give a different picture to what is happening and hide bad news of acquisitions by good news in results, unfortunately DEC may take it's investors for fools by judging by the SP they are certainly not taken in by this now or in the past.

There is $92 million debt reduction from the lower interest paying debit to be replaced by multiple times more debit at much higher interest rate, where do DEC tell investors about this, it is left as an exercise for investors. DEC do not tell the interest rate of the debt paid off but new debt is just below 10%.

EyesOfBlue

"Terry, don't ever change"

I do change quite a bit with my investments, trade DEC a lot, have not not considered DEC as a good long term investment for a time, I also and move on to companies who value shareholder value and shareholders (including not responding to question to investors services unlike other companies I own), it is DEC that does not change pursuing a failed (as far as shareholder value is concerned) strategy which leaves them multiple times behind their peers. It is those investors who think this strategy will someday magically work after it has been tested to destruction with 5 years of proven failure that can't and won't change. The investors that trade this company are making good money, long term investors just lose.

"déja vu, all over again"

Terry, don't ever change 😅

More concerning is why do the “sellers” seem to know about acquisitions before the RNS?

Some people making a load of money on inside information.

Terry, why would they include the debt from a deal anticipated to conclude in Q3 in Q1 results?

If history repeats itself, the traders will smash the SP down below £10. GG will return and proclaim the end of the world is near and we are all idiots. I will buy a lot of cheap shares and sell them for £12 in 2 months time.

Looked like a good report to me. Margins up, ebitda up, fcf up, acquisitions integrated well and performing.

Two more quarters like that to really prove the model and DEC will rerate.

$16.75 but volatile

On website

Likewise I’d be surprised if the results weren’t very good on this occasion, the pity is a pullback like today takes some of the spring out of any bounce.

I agree with regards to tonight 9pm US time financial update, that it will be on the upside.

DEC Hedges the majority of it's oil and gas production to maintain stable margins but is less able as a result to take advantage of increased oil prices. I believe 55% of their oil production is hedged. What that does mean though is that their financial forecasts should be relatively accurate. Their gas had been hedged above the going rate so i'm expecting good results and strong free cash flow in the financials. We'll just have to wait and see what the data says! I've topped up my fairly large holding and am looking to retain them for the foreseeable.

‘Plummets’ bit of hyperbole there - opened very strong but finished up 8, US a tad higher despite the fall

Think these results have reasonable odds of being on the upside. Still a lot of uncertainty around which may begin to ease. 6m and 1yr up almost exactly half of some of the other O&G. The last peak all caught up then sold off. I can see reasons to hold on but I can see there’s plenty on here who disagree.

Mmmmm - might have hoped so - but instead, US price plummets to join lacklustre UK one.....

Nothing rational about DEC's share price - rather, the only predictable thing about it is its volatility

So as Terry has always said - trading it is probably the only thing that makes sense ...

GLA....

When US market closes. clearly down as market think straits is sorted, how many times?

hardly any traffic going anywhere through the straits and never has been since the war started. someone sees ten boats and thinks we are back. high oil, high food, pretty much high everything especially in uk. oh to do net zero but have no materials and energy of our own. we are certainly now paying

Seems it does command more than 1% of your time, but it is an interesting share and I am looking forward to seeing the results on Wednesday. If the economies of scale are coming through, with the hedges taken I am optimistic personally. We shall see in good time

@special value. Not really confused, dilatory in respect of DEC I will accept (and I wish DEC was the only example). DEC was never more than 1% of my portfolio but it takes more of my attention than most.

We await the 1st Qtr figures which will be impossible to compare with any other quarter; some things with DEC never change.

Current view, too expensive to buy, too cheap to sell; probably. Does that make me confused?

AceofClubs

Interesting article, hopefully I’m allowed to share without a paywall.

It’s concluding that the oil sector will likely see M&A….. lots cash sloshing around.

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/fe00a283-08c8-4270-8d33-4462d3c47964

Thanks. i continue to take the divi which is reasonable. i bought and sold different amounts over years and made money. my last big tranche is about 25% down and i'll hold for as long as it takes and have divi. its not the end of the world, i've a lot of cash and owning some gas shares for me isnt the end of the world.

AoC - where would DEC be without a war?

From your figures the war hasn’t had a positive impact on local gas prices (though it obviously has on oil prices) and looks like it will lead to higher interest rates.

Only the oil price rise post war has had a positive impact on DEC profits. I get there might be a load of investors / funds just lumping DEC in with other O&G stocks and buying shares but the only positive I see is that it’s given DEC some time / stability to prove fundamentals without any more acquisitions.

Let’s see what they say on the 6th 😀

What's happening for DEC in the US. reading the country is certainly not running out but certainly maxing the amounts abroad and cant be sustained. they have shipped more than nearly all middle east together. they will pump more oil so bi product is gas, is gas for dec up, down and on really impact???

Https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/diversified-energy-sets-date-for-first-quarter-2026-results-and-investor-call

May 5th Results

First Q results due May 6th after US market closes.

Pretty significant difference between uk close and us close so should be up first thing.

No new recent acquisitions for a cash generating business is only good news for results day. DEC will hopefully have a combination of a cash pile, reduced debt and increased well retirements. Rusty always promised us long life, low decline quality assets. Now's the time to prove how good the business is.

Well it’s interesting to note ofc that rising gas prices are not a US issue, in fact the opposite. As several posters on here have noted previously.

However we should see the benefit of the hedges taken in q3 and 4 (during high IS prices)when the results come in q1. Very difficult to work out the impact these will likely have. Positive but how positive? Anyone got a view? I’m also keen to see the flow through of acquisitions revenue. I remain pretty positive and am expecting to see some decent gains. Any the “war is over hurrah” dips an opportunity to buy?

The rising oil and gas ⛽ will get em shorts buying back before they fall of the edge of the world

Feels an exciting time to buy or top up. Feels like the sp dropped but on a false belief that we will see a quick end to SoH, and equally that things will return to normal. Equally clearly some opacity in hedging and articles may have unnerved a few holders as well as traders taking profits. Maybe? Looking forward to some comms in May. I feel positive like you

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is going to cause problems for quite some time to come even if hostilities ended immediately.

This is an interesting article

Oil Is No Longer Trading Like a Market

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Is-No-Longer-Trading-Like-a-Market.html

In the long term will be good for DEC but for me ENOG stands to benefit more, I am looking to increase my position with them if price goes a bit lower.

The problem is there is restricted LNG export capacity in the US as Biden banned new plants being built, since Trump construction has started but these take a long time to complete so for now the War has very little affect on HH prices and for a time to come US Gas is in effect a pretty much closed market. In time there will be more LNG exported but we may be looking at a Democrat Government with all the ESG and ARO issues that brings.

EU countries struggle to replenish gas reserves for winter

Iran war keeps prices high despite consumer demand dropping as heating season ends..

Wouldn’t it be nice if brokers issued statements saying “here’s what we said 12 months ago and here’s why we were right or wrong?”

Https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/diversified-energy-company-plc-nysedec-receives-consensus-recommendation-of-moderate-buy-from-analysts-2026-04-21/

A number of different institution ratings.

After peaking on 30 Mar DEC SP has been back to it usual ways and in the last 5 days has fallen between 4.01% to 6.8% against it peers, unfortunately BAU.

EyesOfBlue added to my nyse dec

This is already up on todays low

Topped up

As I have been saying for a long time now DEC is a great share for trading but a terrible investment.

Yeah, anyway I'm back in and anticipating a Prodigal Son warm welcome on here! Took back 25% of my recently sold (for $17, missed the top, unfortunately) shares for $15 a few mins ago.

Never a dull day at DEC is there!

Im currently out, but I would look to come back in at anything around £10 or lower.

Overall company is in good shape but has an ARO hanging over its head. Management have made some steps to improve this but not enough yet.

Expect some short term drops if the peace talks continue to progress well.

Gd luck

Https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DEC/diversified-energy-tr-63cf0be8icj4.html

Looks like they knew it was good time to get out or reduce.

For now DEC SP is going down quite a bit on good news on War and up a little on bad news, not a good place to be.

Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and $28.00 price target on Diversified Energy Co. (NYSE:DEC) ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings report. The stock currently trades at $15.55, which InvestingPro data suggests is undervalued, with shares offering an attractive 7.4% dividend yield.

The firm expects Diversified Energy to report first-quarter results in line with Street estimates, with performance broadly tracking consensus across EBITDAX and free cash flow.

Mizuho noted the company’s merger and acquisition model remains underappreciated, citing improving visibility into its ability to compound value through a disciplined approach supported by a differentiated funding structure. The firm pointed to a long runway of mature asset consolidation representing approximately $125 billion in opportunities. The strategy appears to be working, with the stock delivering a 50% return over the past year. For deeper insights, InvestingPro offers exclusive access to comprehensive Pro Research Reports covering DEC and 1,400+ other US equities.

The analyst highlighted Diversified Energy’s selective screening process, noting 57 non-disclosure agreements, 24 bids, and one close, which demonstrates a returns-focused strategy rather than a volume-driven approach.

Mizuho sees free cash flow durability supported by low-decline assets and a structural cost advantage through the company’s asset-backed securities platform, which lowers funding costs and enhances equity efficiency.

In other recent news, Diversified Energy Company reported record financial results for the full year 2025, with total revenue reaching $1.83 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $956 million, surpassing guidance. This performance highlights the company’s strong financial position. Additionally, Diversified Energy filed unaudited pro forma financials with the SEC following its acquisition of Canvas Energy, offering investors insights into the combined company’s financial status. In a separate development, an affiliate of EIG announced the sale of its remaining stake in Diversified Energy through an underwritten public offering. The company expressed interest in purchasing up to 3,900,000 shares from the underwriter at the same price paid to the selling stockholder. The secondary offering was priced at $14.45 per share, involving 7,501,585 shares of common stock. Furthermore, Truist Securities initiated coverage on Diversified Energy with a buy rating, setting a price target of $22.00. These developments reflect ongoing strategic moves and market activities surrounding Diversified Energy.

Stephens & Co initiate coverage with a SP Target of $24.

Mizuho is another one of the paid for brokers for DEC, like so many of these tame broker reports it gives a rating far in excess of anything DEC is likely to achieve, so far it has not come anywhere near close with it's ratings to the SP.

Far better to give a report explaining why DEC is down 50% in 5 years in a very favourable environment while its peers are up between 230 - 288% in the same period but then again they would be cut off from DEC's fees.

Oiled - a week ago you said

“many investors don’t understand“

If only I could see the back peddling on this 🤭

Now you’re posting a broker report which says

“Mizuho noted the company’s merger and acquisition model remains underappreciated.”

Under appreciated pretty similar to don’t understand.

You now pedalling backwards or just posting reports you don’t agree with? 😀

FYI…

Investing.com - Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and $28.00 price target on Diversified Energy Co. (NYSE:DEC) ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings report. The stock currently trades at $15.55, which InvestingPro data suggests is undervalued, with shares offering an attractive 7.4% dividend yield.

The firm expects Diversified Energy to report first-quarter results in line with Street estimates, with performance broadly tracking consensus across EBITDAX and free cash flow.

Mizuho noted the company’s merger and acquisition model remains underappreciated, citing improving visibility into its ability to compound value through a disciplined approach supported by a differentiated funding structure. The firm pointed to a long runway of mature asset consolidation representing approximately $125 billion in opportunities. The strategy appears to be working, with the stock delivering a 50% return over the past year. For deeper insights, InvestingPro offers exclusive access to comprehensive Pro Research Reports covering DEC and 1,400+ other US equities.

The analyst highlighted Diversified Energy’s selective screening process, noting 57 non-disclosure agreements, 24 bids, and one close, which demonstrates a returns-focused strategy rather than a volume-driven approach.

Mizuho sees free cash flow durability supported by low-decline assets and a structural cost advantage through the company’s asset-backed securities platform, which lowers funding costs and enhances equity efficiency.

In other recent news, Diversified Energy Company reported record financial results for the full year 2025, with total revenue reaching $1.83 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $956 million, surpassing guidance. This performance highlights the company’s strong financial position. Additionally, Diversified Energy filed unaudited pro forma financials with the SEC following its acquisition of Canvas Energy, offering investors insights into the combined company’s financial status. In a separate development, an affiliate of EIG announced the sale of its remaining stake in Diversified Energy through an underwritten public offering. The company expressed interest in purchasing up to 3,900,000 shares from the underwriter at the same price paid to the selling stockholder. The secondary offering was priced at $14.45 per share, involving 7,501,585 shares of common stock. Furthermore, Truist Securities initiated coverage on Diversified Energy with a buy rating, setting a price target of $22.00. These developments reflect ongoing strategic moves and market activities surrounding Diversified Energy.

I'm aware it is far from accurate but the buy/sell ratio seems well out of sync with the price action

Worst performing FTSE250 company today.

"The strategy appears to be working, with the stock delivering a 50% return over the past year. "

Total Return 1yr 3yr 5yr

DEC +40% -11% -7%

FTSE100 +28% +34% +50%

Data Source: marketscreener.com

Strategy working, or did somebody start a war? Always DYOR.

AceofClubs

Diversified Energy (NYSE: DEC) CEO Rusty Hutson will join Taking Stock this afternoon to discuss why the company sees the NYSE as its premier listing venue.

Https://investingnews.com/nyse-content-update-u-s-based-diversified-energy-to-ring-bell-for-25-years-since-its-founding/