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I am a long term invested that could have and in hindsight should have taken my profit.
The reason I didn’t is because of all of my portfolio,
This is the one I did most research on and the one I had the most belief in.
I’m so sad that it’s ended like this.
Point being.
No matter how much you believe, how much research you do.
It can all come and bite you in the arse.
Gutted.
I can’t agree more, I spent the last 3 years researching companies to invest in. I have most my money in boring index funds, but of my fun money, I put the majority in Synairgen, and some in 4D… well, even when you think all the stars are aligned, you never know what will happen.
What I learnt from Synairgen, don’t invest in a company with only one product
What I learnt from 4D, avoid companies with debt? I don’t know, still working this one out.
Partnered with a major pharma, drugs which I believed were the future, good trial results… shocking really.
Well I am in the same boat too with hefty losses in both Synairgen and 4D. I started investing in AIM stocks two years back. Second half of 2020 and first half of 2021 was brilliant, made almost 40% return. Since then just been in a downward spiral and have lost not just the 40% gains but also all the profits I had additionally made before I got onto investing in the AIM stocks from holding high quality investment funds which I had divested away from.
Last six months have been nothing but stressful seeing my portfolio bleed everyday. Two days back the value of my ISA portfolio reached the same value as what I have added each year so far ever to my ISA. Had enough that morning and at the risk of losing further money and for the sake of my own sanity, I gave up and sold all my 20 or so AIM stocks including 4D for which I booked a 85% loss as my average was around 100p.
I was at least lucky to salvage a small amount back from 4D but I really feel for all investors who kept the faith. Even after selling 4D I had thought to myself this was going to be one star which I might regret selling someday. Unfortunately taking on debt with no income stream has really killed it.
Have drank a lot tonight.....absolutely gutted for us all.
But Tomorrow is another day. Grr.
$13.86m is the debt to Oxford. No idea what will happen to our money and shares, likely lost of course but that amount is not unachievable. What value does Merck put on their ongoing research for example. Hard to see positives as there are few but there may be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere. It’s hard but don’t give up all hope yet.
It needs a good Shag, Shareholder Action Group.
ANyone got the motivation to get one organised?
''The Board intends to work with the Joint Administrators on proposals to rescue the Company as a going concern, albeit there can be no guarantee that this will be successful.''
Its 'only' $13m. In the grand scheme that's not much. Additional funding would obviously be required for continued research/operation.
Yes, any II buyer, such as Merck potentially, would no doubt use the situation to their great advantage and offer low, but there are possibilities. Oxford, for whatever reason, want their money back, no doubt not helped by Duncan's investor event performance. Biotech is back on the up so there may be more interest now. Do Merck want to take the chance of someone else buying this in admin? Who knows. There is plenty of value (IP/research/expertise/production) left in this company. Definitely not clutching at straws, in my mind the money has gone, just my own thoughts, nothing more.
Not to mention Blautix and the FDA, so much here... must be some decent value...
Not calculated my loss on this one yet but would imagine its about £160k. I am hoping that a buyer can be found and it gives SH a return so i can at least reduce that loss some.
The AIM market at times can be a nightmare. My 2021 trading year was damaged by a big loss on NCYT in the end i got that down to about £125k so this loss trumps that and hits my 2022 trading year and we are only in June. At times makes you want to give up....
Good luck all for next week, think we are going to need it...
What was that investor event all about? Why was it arranged? Maybe Duncan thought he had some news to release but Oxford pulled the plug last minute?
They spell out the fact that one day they talked with Oxford and the next they wanted the money back. Duncan may have known before but we'll never know that. Essentially, they are in a scramble now to find someone that thinks there is value here. Plenty do and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that they are onto something from a treatment perspective. Just depends on whether someone is willing to stump up the cash and commit to support. Or perhaps buy them out relatively cheaply. The wording of that RNS does not suggest to me that its all over yet but we'll have to wait to see.
@Thunks
That actually makes perfect sense now.
I posted here to say i thought he called the Investor event because he was expecting news to tell us. We knew he was in talks with Oxford a few weeks back so maybe he did genuinely believe they would support the business and he would be telling us this at the investor event. Had that been the case the SP would have jumped and next week he would be doing a placing for 2023 and job done.
Didn't work out that way hence why he was in shock at the event with nothing to say.
NO doubt in my mind that DUncan will look after himself and push for a mark 2 brand new company with himself at the helm new share options etc , the going concern. Will he care about other investors? Who knows but they need to get organised imv unless they want to watch others snatch the value here, unopposed.
He might, and I hope not, but lets see. Appalling if he was allowed to get away with that.
He might not care about other investors but if 4D want to become a big player in the pharma market (if indeed its salvageable) he will need to think about his reputation and that of his company, both in the UK and in the US. Hopefully that will play some part. Now that he's tied up with Merck and others its not a good look to play the Aim game and simply spin off another company. I'm probably being too naïve but lets hope not.
Hi All,
Administration is not always the end game, but close to it. I'm sure Duncan does not relish the thought of losing his money, or in fact the company. As much as the buck stops with him Im sure this was not an engineered outcome.
He could end up with the company if he and others can stump up some funds. He couldn't find funds for 4D so I doubt he will be able to for himself.
That said, he is no longer in control, however, he will have some influence with the administrator.
I believe he is in a precarious position.
So 4D needs £13m for OF, or an amount acceptable to OF as full and final settlement, and then some for continued research.
My view is that the Administrator will focus initially on trying to sell the company as a going concern. Its cheap. £13m for oxford and then some for ongoing development.
The more I think about this the more I believe this will be bought at a bargain price. If they asset strip it wont be worth much. 518 has still got to be developed out. All the cost of trials etc.
4D still has momentum.
Not sure if it gets a buyer how we all stand though!
Any chance some money back or need write off? I never had same situaton. Thanks.
Scambler it is the beginning of the end game. OF demanded repayment of loans by yesterday (24th), company could not and do not have the cash to repay. Consequently OF appoint Admininsitrators and NOT 4D.
Administrators terms of reference which will have been prepared by OF, are obliged to undertake an exercise to achieve an outcome that can see the company continuing in some form. Bear in mind OF want their money, the terms of which may well be such that part or all of the company will be sold. Value of physical assets is straightforward, patents, goodwill etc are not so easy to value and indeed in some eyes could be worth very little.
The company could be sold lock stock and barrel at a knock down price purely to satisfy OF. Do'nt forget Administrator do not work for nothing. The likelyhood of existing shareholders being left with anything is virtually zero.
The debate on Shorters have and will continue to rage here and elsewhere. IMO the practice should be outlawed.
How many posters here have religously ramped but speak with forked tongue. Readers will form their own opinions!!!
AIMO
fairdealer20
Wouldn’t shorters have lost also, if they haven’t closed out their positions before admin?
@Max1976 I assume a write-off. Shareholders shafted.
Quote.
"4D is a world leader in the development of Live Biotherapeutics, a novel and emerging class of drugs, defined by the FDA as biological products that contain a live organism, such as a bacterium, that is applicable to the prevention, treatment or cure of a disease.? 4D has developed a sector-leading discovery platform, MicroRx, that rationally identifies bacterial drug candidates based on a deep understanding of function and mechanism.? 4D’s Live Biotherapeutic products are orally delivered single strains of bacteria that are naturally found in the healthy human gut.?
4D has clinical stage candidates in Oncology (including a clinical collaboration with MSD/Merck & Co.), Respiratory and Gastrointestinal disease, and a strong pre-clinical pipeline with programs in Oncology, CNS, and Autoimmune/Inflammatory disease; in addition we have an ongoing research collaboration with MSD (Merck & Co.) utilizing the MicroRx platform to discover and develop LBPs for vaccines."
Doesn't make sense does it?
Doesn't make sense that when you read the quote, how a junior BIO with so much to offer with ties with some of the big bio's are in administration.
Of course Shorters who did not close before suspension will have lost. Should the stock return from suspension their(Shorters) positions could be enhanced. Remember, most Shorters are shrewd operators and will have closed when the stock fell dramatically on Wednesday.
It will be trading private in a month, bought for £1
'What happens when an investor maintains a short position in a company that gets delisted and declares bankruptcy? The answer is simple—the investor never has to pay back anyone because the shares are worthless.'
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/maintain-short-position-delisted-stock/
The shorters make 100% profit
Plan for the worst hope for the best.
The majority of companies don’t make it back from admin but it does happen and if it happens with 4D then it won’t be the first pharma company to achieve it. As someone correctly noted yesterday, similar happened to redx pharma when Liverpool council called in the 2M loan it was owed. Some assets under development were sold for $40M and the company came out of admin on firm ground. Redx’s pipeline wasn’t as promising as 4D’s.
Time will tell.
I am just reading what ms happened now. I am gutted like everyone and trying to get my head around it.
What happened to the shareholders that had bought into Redx before they went into administration ? Did the shareholders lose their shares?
Does anyone know for sure if we have lost everything, or is everyone just speculating right now?
Is Duncan obliged to give any announcement or update? When I Google it there is not much out there about it.