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Sheltie TB are not a cash buyer exactly , they willl raise I see in news 1 to 2 billion , I forget which currency
The board like TB , and the board recommends accept
But behind the scenes Jeffries and other tmt investment bankers hungry for commission fees might just find another buyer ( in the end TB might need to up their offer )
If you don’t believe they will drift look at ForgeRock, UK based, offered to buy by TB in Oct 22 “ ForgeRock shareholders to receive $23.25 per share in cash”. It took until Aug 23 to complete (10 months) and you can see the drift down here
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/FORG/forgerock/stock-price-history#:~:text=The%20all%2Dtime%20high%20ForgeRock,below%20the%20current%20share%20price.
Over 9 months with GBP/USD forecast this will be in 560s
Who wants to hold money 9 months watching it go down
The Ceo should be dismissed with immediate effect
No way the shares are going to drift down,quite the opposite
Which is why the SP will drift down to the 560s/570 mark waiting until Q4 & voting etc
You can tell it is raining.
Fair value for the SHs, the BoD claim, when their own broker, who advised them on this takeover, recently said the intrinsic value was much higher. You sell when above intrinsic value and buy below intrinsic value. The BoD selling “low” is a travesty, and demonstrates my long term view that the BoD is, and always was, negligent in looking after the interests of all of its shareholders. An appalling negotiation and done rapidly according to the Sunday Times.
‘“Andrew Almeida, a strait-laced partner of the firm based in Miami with a focus on cybersecurity investments, approached Darktrace’s board — led by chairman Gordon Hurst, a former chief financial officer at the outsourcing company Capita — again in mid-March. This was shortly after Lynch, facing trial, and his wife had significantly sold down their stakes in the business. It took until Friday morning last week for Almeida and Hurst to agree on the final deal.”
What a pathetic negotiator our Chairman is.
Watch for Luminance IPO
They’ve had 6 rounds of funding so are set for IPO
Only on Series B & don’t usually IPO until Series C
But keep eyes on that one
I'm not sure another bidder will emerge, but I think it's far from a slam dunk that the existing IIs will accept 620. If they're British based IIs then they too will be subject to any loss on ER.
14.4% is a very very low place to start from when you need 75% support.
It wouldn't surprise me if TB simply had to raise their bid because shareholders won't accept 620.
The bidders dont own enough shares they will have to up their offer for shareholders to accept or another bidder will emerge
This ends up well over 1000p a share
If anyones interested, current forecast for USD GBP exchange rate for the end of the year
Month / Low Forecast / High Forecast
October 1.289-1.329
November 1.309-1.354
December 1.334-1.388
Current is 1.25, so there's a pretty solid 5% wrong-side risk there. 8% is obviously taking the high side forecast for rate and the longer time frame.
I agree the offer should be made in GBP & TB take the USD conversion hit
A bit like your big money premier league transfer. Player (Poppy) might want to go to Liverpool (TB) but if Man City come in a bid more then Liverpool will either need to match the bid or lose out. It doesn't much matter what Poppy wants, the shareholders won't accept 620 if an offer lands on the table of 675, particularly if 620 looks like it might only be worth 580 in 6 months.
Why the hell are they allowed to make a bid for a British Co, with British HQ, listed in Britain, in f*****g USD anyway?
Https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:dark/ownership#
They have 14.4% from KKR DA, Summit Partners, Director & Senior employees
Sheltie you could be right, but there is nothing certain about the future except death and taxes (Benjamin Franklin).
We will see with the plethora of Form 8.3 RNSs this week as all 1 percenters declare
This will 100% go through. TB are a CASH buyer . . . .
Talking of odds of the takeover succeding:
‘Schemes of arrangement provide a more certain path to success. Consistent with 2020, we saw schemes of arrangement deliver much higher success rates as compared to takeovers in 2021 (90% vs 55%).15 Mar 2022”
Given the holdings of the original investors, EBT, and employees set to get £440m (Sunday Times), maybe the odds are more likely to be 99% plus.
I can see this drifting towards 560s the longer it drags out so the sooner they get it done or new bidders declare interest the better for holders
Bravo are a good fit , but Jeffries might be able to find another buyer with deep pockets
Because now everyone knows Darl is up for sale
Bravo are good robber barons
Don’t forget staff and directors and other shareholders want more higher price , there is pressure to vote no , and pressure to get the price higher
The USD exchange rate is certainly a a head wind for us to get 620 even …. At this price we are all screwed out of what could have been
And I am 99% percent the deal will go through, Poppy et all become mega rich and the LSE becomes more of a laughing stock
Love it
https://www.ft.com/content/40a01e74-7eb1-4d76-a34a-1e7fdb827bbe
Yes the USD pound exchange rate likely not move in our favor
Jeffries will do it’s best to increase the offer and start a bidding War , I am 69 % sure the price will jump towards 821.5 p
Forecast is 1.37 USD/GBP Nov 2024
$7.75 = £5.66 some 8.7% below offer in Apr 2024
$7.75
@ 1.25 = £6.20
Variance 1.2 to 1.4
@ 1.2 = £6.46
@ 1.3 = £5.96
@ 1.4 = £5.54
Also in 8-9 months the USD to GBP could easily fluctuate 1.2 to 1.4
$7.75 could easily £5.95 which is why I think it will hover around 600
Unlikely we will see 1.2 lows USD/GBP
A stronger £ isn’t good news for this deal over an 8-9 month period
I have to agree. They have prior connectivity having rebuffed them previously. i cannot see anyone making a move to step in so £6.20 seems right to me once contracts finalised.