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sorry - capitalised version
perhaps time for a post-mortem. comparing the communications from berkshire hathaway (buffett) and dt’s bod is like chalk and cheese. what buffett reports to shs is clear and relevant, some of what dt focuses on is irrelevant from sh perspective and perhaps somewhat devious imho.
in all its communications dt, focuses on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation (ebitda). as this metric does not take account of it and capital requirements, munger (buffett’s late business partner), succinctly recommended that whenever you see ebitda in a financial statement you should replace it with the words “bull**** earnings”. to build on this analogy, and for reasons given below, may i humbly suggest that adjusting ebitda by removing ongoing costs like share based compensation (sbc) is akin to the bull having a serious bout of diarrhoea.
sbc is a major cost to the owners as it dilutes their share of the ownership of the company, and, more importantly, their share of the company’s future earnings -,real and more impactful on sh returns than the actual equivalent cost of the shares.
having read all of the buffett’s. annual sh letters, i think buffett would have written to sh.s. something like this:
dear sh. as owners of xxx i am pleased to report on what we are doing on your behalf to maximise your returns on your investment. the company goes from strength to strength with a high revenue growth rate and even higher commensurate growth in profit and the ensuing free cash flows. this, together with the financial strength of the company, means we are in a position to maximise your wealth creation buy buying back and cancelling shares - particularly beneficial now as the sp is being undervalued by the market.
we therefore propose to do this and will seek your approval. this will have the advantage of compounding your fractional ownership each year, on top of the anticipated rise in the free cash flow. with exponential growth on exponential growth you may expect exceptional returns when the market wakes up to the true value of your company. but the later this happens, the better your returns will be.
at the same time, we realise that our approach to share based compensation is working against the your interests as owners, reducing your fractional ownership rather than increasing it. and, unfortunately, the lower the sp the greater the dilution becomes. we therefore propose paying bonuses/incentives in cash in the future, which will be of no consequence to the profitability of the company, nor will it reduce the bonuses and incentives of the execs, but will make the accounts more transparent and understandable and allow you to get higher returns. however, we will still require management to buy shares in the market using their bonuses to achieve a certain percentage ownership. …………. yours sincerely, chairman, bod
i wish - and anyway it is too late.
perhaps time for a post-mortem. comparing the communications from berkshire hathaway (buffett) and dt’s bod is like chalk and cheese. what buffett reports to shs is clear and relevant, some of what dt focuses on is irrelevant from sh perspective and perhaps somewhat devious imho.
in all its communications dt, focuses on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation (ebitda). as this metric does not take account of it and capital requirements, munger (buffett’s late business partner), succinctly recommended that whenever you see ebitda in a financial statement you should replace it with the words “bull**** earnings”. to build on this analogy, and for reasons given below, may i humbly suggest that adjusting ebitda by removing ongoing costs like share based compensation (sbc) is akin to the bull having a serious bout of diarrhoea.
sbc is a major cost to the owners as it dilutes their share of the ownership of the company, and, more importantly, their share of the company’s future earnings - real and more impactful on sh returns than the actual equivalent cost of the shares.
having read all of the buffett’s. annual sh letters, i think buffett would have written to sh.s. something like this:
dear sh. as owners of xxx i am pleased to report on what we are doing on your behalf to maximise your returns on your investment. the company goes from strength to strength with a high revenue growth rate and even higher commensurate growth in profit and the ensuing free cash flows. this, together with the financial strength of the company, means we are in a position to maximise your wealth creation buy buying back and cancelling shares - particularly beneficial now as the sp is being undervalued by the market.
we therefore propose to do this and will seek your approval. this will have the advantage of compounding your fractional ownership each year, on top of the anticipated rise in the free cash flow. with exponential growth on exponential growth you may expect exceptional returns when the market wakes up to the true value of your company. but the later this happens, the better your returns will be.
at the same time, we realise that our approach to share based compensation is working against the your interests as owners, reducing your fractional ownership rather than increasing it. and, unfortunately, the lower the sp the greater the dilution becomes. we therefore propose paying bonuses/incentives in cash in the future, which will be of no consequence to the profitability of the company, nor will it reduce the bonuses and incentives of the execs, but will make the accounts more transparent and understandable and allow you to get higher returns. however, we will still require management to buy shares in the market using their bonuses to achieve a certain percentage ownership. …………. yours sincerely, chairman, bod
some musings and i wish - but with this bod it would never happen
Lets avoid personal attacks
Mutual respect
Alternative views welcome ...
The fact is no one knows (except those perhaps planning a takeover bid secretly ) have any idea if a higher bid will come in (including me)
Does anyone know the timetable for a Vote etc...
The vote may or may not succeed
If you believe the Vote will succeed, and no other bids, feel free to sell all shares now (honestly if you can find a better share that can go up by more than 5 % in next 3 months why not)
Even if the Vote is no, I believe Dark will be at 600 p wiothin 6 months anyway...
So one reason I hold most shares now.....is for a higher bid to come along if it does, great, if not then move on to better shares
Sheltie I respect your views, except you were too bearings 250p
Now a zero % chance highly likely as AI investor says...
Zero or 88 per cent who knows ....what is sure no one knows if anothedr buyer will emerge .... but as still some time ....I give Dark a chance of a higher biddeer.... but certainly those who believe no other bidder will emerge is a fair view too
Just pulling your leg with the Sun...I do glance at the Sun for news too!
That ***** word, was itchy with a b in front of
why would people bother to reply to you 888, when you insult them just for having an opposing view to you?
this was a *****y, very childish thing to write (and also totally unnecessary):- "the sun and mirror are on shelties side as they also lack insight and information on the real world". i will leave you to it, as it's over for dt now. . .
0 % chance
Board unanimous and already has been holders on board
I bet 88 per cent likely as of today , still time
Feel free to post your probability guess from zero to 100
Sheltie might be low say 15 per cent and I am higher today 88 per cent
Please post we we get an idea - feel free to add any reasons for your guesstimate
Thanks
The fact is no one knows -
No one knows what Microsoft / Google and others plan to do
We just make our best guess
So I think Sheltie thinks it’s unlikely
Whereas I believe why not ?
The Ft thinks the same as me , so does the Times
The Sun and Mirror are on Shelties side as they also lack insight and information on the real world
Face it - Dark is up for sale - everyone knows it , place your bets !
8 is the lucky number
Nice post - well done
Nice post - well done
Sheltie, You clearly never particularly liked Darktrace as an investment. You are on here like telling everyone that no other bid will come in. That may or may not be true however I have to say that you have been wrong before. Like when you were telling everyone that Darktrace was a screaming sell in in January 2023. The share price back then was 2.39. Anyone who took your advice and sold would have missed out a 150% rise in the share price. As for Darktrace not making enough profit. It took a decade before Amazon turned a profit. Plenty of other similar examples.
Well listening to you all , and I do listen …
I am now lowering my chance of a higher takeover bid from 69 % up 50 %
Investment bankers surely would need 2/3 weeks to get one of their clients to bid .. at least , certainly if nothing appears by around June 8 th or so … then I will start counting my chickens …
Sheltie I’m curious. On what basis do you say “ as it's just not worth any more”. How do you determine this? Have you calculated it intrinsic value based on revenue growth projections, earnings margins and cash conversion metrics. Or is it based upon your gut feeling or TA?
This TB offer . . .
Absolutely steviewonder77 - I have said it all along. It's a very very good deal for DT shareholders & nobody else is going to come along & offer any more than TB have, as it's just not worth any more. Oh & don't forget that DT barely scraped a profit as a listed Plc. People were excited by it growing its top line - meanwhile however, it's bottom line always remained poor. This TB will definitely get voted through - with "unanimous" ease.
"Turnover is Vanity. Profit is Sanity. Cash is King".
I thought it was fair value at about 580p. So im pleased with 620p. The only case you can make for a higher valuation is ,its cheap compared to its peers in the US. Ive sold more this week,ive been adding to CVSG.
ML has reduced his holding again ….
Charles wake up a bidding war is never going to happen. It is a done deal. If there was another bid you would have already heard by now. It is the hope that kills you.
My favourite part of this whole debacle is how you all got played by Jeffries. The Fred and Rose West of Investing kept ramping the brokers values saying this was valued at £8.90.
All of a sudden Jeffries stated as below that £6.20 was fair and reasonable.
Recommendation
· The Darktrace Directors, who have been so advised by Jefferies and Qatalyst Partners as to the financial terms of the Acquisition, consider the terms of the Acquisition to be fair and reasonable. In providing their advice, Jefferies and Qatalyst Partners have taken into account the commercial assessments of the Darktrace Directors.
At least some on here will have learnt an important lessons.
Don’t trust any Brokers especially those that are getting paid by the company.
Don’t trust anything the Fred and Rose West of investing post they are the worst most clueless rampers out there.
Our lucky charm, is Investment bankers are lacking work , why not use their time to find a buyer for Dark at say 6billion....or 7 billion...
Does anyone know how big a fee Investment bankers could make if the successfully find abuyer for Dark?
Springtime is always a good time to look for a new home, physical or virtual
Or until the big Vote
Just announced on a new DA web site
34500000
device transactions automated by KeyScaler…and counting
The next superstar
I really like Pru,the numbers add up but their exposure to China stops me. But good luck with it CR888.