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Any feedback? Assuming no mention of Cnr?
Calibre have recovered the earlier fall and are now Up on the day at a new 52 week High. It would appear the call was well received and as Calibre continues to prosper the likelihood of a deal with Condor should continue to be a no brainer for them.
I didn't even hear the word Nicaragua never mind cnr, but I could have missed it?
They said “Tom isn’t here because he is in Nicaragua “
That might be Tom Gallo VP of strategy and growth.
I also own Calibre, their Mgt team known for buying-selling companies. Took Newcastle Gold from $10mmCN to $1BilCN and sold to Kirkland Lake Gold in FOURTEEN months!!! If Calibre bidding against Chinese producer, I would think to just to increase short term production plus set a base price for soon selling Calibre's Nicaraguan assets to Zijin or another Chinese buyer. Here is a nice presentation, Calibre very effective at promoting the company. https://www.calibremining.com/
Thanks for your comment. That makes complete sense as Ryan at Calibre complains their valuation is a fraction of its Canadian peers. If they could bring all Nic assets together and sell as a package would make complete sense as it derisks for buyer having more immediate reserves as well as upside. Thanks for insight.
Had a look at Calibre presentation from 15th May. The closest mine to La India is El Limon, small 0.5mta plant, not sure it has spare capacity.
La Libertad mine has 1mt per annum spare capacity I think is 200km from La India. Says ore trucing costs are 12 us cents per km, per ton. For 1 Mt per year I think that's a 24 million dollar cost. I worked it out this morning but lost my post, figure could be wrong. Be better building the mine? We have the Sag mill but cannot recall the cost.
I would love Calibre to be a buyer, but I now think after reading this presentation, the Chinese are only buyers and that's why ìts taking so long. Hope I am wrong.
We are a point that an all share offer from Calibre is barely a 10% dilution. Its a no brainer given Calibre can immediately truck ore to half utilised mine. Producers gold miner paper in Canadian is as good as cash. Cash buyer is now 2nd best option as it cant keep up with gold price rise. A price 6 months ago would be seen as a joke today. Certainly part of possible problem. Calibre paper would be perfect and Calibre shareprice would bounce a lot higher to make it clear to investors it will not run of material and be left with a headache.
Thelearner.......so you are assuming the Middle Eastern buyers have gone away?
Calibre has expended more funds on their acquisition of the Valentine Mine well beyond originally thought. They are also bringing forward the capacity build-up of the new plant, as mentioned in yesterday's Qtrly Conference Call. Therefore I don't see them wanting to add Condor to the mix now. They currently have enough on their plate, and Condor would put this at risk as not everything is about money when building a mine.
Any tie-up between Condor and Calibre, though on paper very compelling, is not going to happen at this time..
I expect JM to keep Condor afloat with quarterly dilutions until better timing. Therefore the Frisby move will pull back and I would recommend members of this Notice Board to sell and wait for a reawakening of Calibre's interest in about a year.
I have never considered Calibre a likely buyer. They have their own thing going on, always have. I'm not sure why folks are so fixated on them. There are other fish in the sea though, so to imply all is lost without them is either naive or disengenuous.
Well said EL. Completely agree. Whereas Bankside on the other hand, what a pile of crap.
Nope. I don't buy it. I still think an all, or mostly, paper offer for Condor is the most likely outcome. I'm also of the view that JM will pull the plug before long. He won't drip fund it forever.
The annual report could drop any time, along with something meaningful. I can only think that the delay is down to a pretty material post balance sheet event...
Getting a bit tetchy on here none of us have a clue
Away, was not aware of any Middle Eastern bidders. Have been back through my CNR posts,as I am sure I posted somewhere on here that oil and gas rich Middle Eastern countries are now investing and buying mines, all so far in Africa, and Saudi investing in domestic mining.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/03/uae-eyes-zambia-mine-minerals-race-heats-against-saudi-arabia-china
Time will tell.
In the meantime, I suggest you review the history of AIM-listed Chaarat Gold (also controlled by an ultra-wealthy investor who has never "built" a mine but made lots of money through financial engineering). Delay, delay, delay. on a shovel-ready open pit, whilst the controlling part keeps diluting the shares and taking more control. The timeline now extends over ten years. The Chinese get involved and a tug of war persists. The share price goes from 6p up to 40p and is now at 2p. Oligarch now has nearly 50% but needs a mine builder to help but doesn't want to lose money or give up control. Small shareholders are cannon fodder.
I'm not saying this is what is happening with Condor but ultra-wealthy people don't like to lose... and I think JM is currently in a loss situation overall. The next quarterly 15p bail-out due in a few days reduces his overall cost per share! Whatever happened to Rights Issues?
I am not familiar with Chaarat Gold, nor do I feel I need to be. I am not invested there. If you are not saying that is what is happening here, then you are admitting that most of your post likely has no relevance.
JM has plenty of warrants left to exercise yes, and no business runs on fresh air, so he may exercise some of them at some point. Honestly it's better that existing warrants are exercised rather than new equity issued, but either is a possibility and hardly the end of the world. Yes, businesses that don't make money occasionally need funding from other sources. Amazing how many people think they're Nostradamus by pointing out such things.
What's left? Oh he doesn't like to lose? Is that it? Weak sauce honestly. Move on to something more of your liking I would suggest. As you say time will tell and I'm comfortable with my position thanks all the same.
Good to see more volume today and price firming back to 30p. Pendulum swings back and forth and just when you least expect it something will drop. Middle East, China, Canada could all be the buyer and everyone is on tenterhooks to find out who. I am more interested in the deal as i just sense that with paper booming in gold producers and gold price testing new highs things might have shifted away from cash to a bigger paper deal. Getting exciting as i think we have weeks to go.
Good post EL. In addition, it's been said on here multiple times that JM cannot hold the asset indefinitely without developing the mine as he will both lose the support of the community and the government, something that he is _accutely_ aware of. He will have to balance his time to negotiate a decent sale with these factors in mind.
Given the surge of the gold price we are in a far better position now than when the sale process started, and have more chance of us all making a decent profit here. Yes, the fall back in the sp is a bit annoying but if you understand that it is based on the whims of short term PIs with not related to changing facts of the ground, it is easier to stomach.
Let's hold our nerves and await news.
Mellon will get the best deal he can that’s the bottom line. The gold price is obviously good news but I don’t think this will materially affect any deal. Personally I think the length of time taken with no news is not great and still stick with my expectations of no more than 50 p . I would also be surprised at anyone seeing cash before winter and possibly into next year but a deal must come for neros stated reasons. I have let quite a lot go because I expect less than 100% upside and various possible downsides. Better to have bought producers a few months ago. So agree with Nero, if not happy switch .36 p was a decent sell on no news and a pr pump.