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Been in the past and found it useful but I’m afraid my days of listening to Mellon are long gone and this debacle has done it for me. Certainly knows how to talk a good game but I’m afraid when it comes to substance; seriously lacking. Long journey with this pipe dream and I’ve survived by trading on occasions… this time I got it wrong and badly so
Onion won’t be there he’s done he knows the scams up the bs has court up with him could most probably write a book how to tuck up a muti billon deal from a financial expert staring Jim melon and a nicaraguan palm greasers
Is anyone going to it?
I see above that Condor are exhibiting here on 18th March - what can they really say unless there is an RNS?
If ou have onion ass as a friend, you don t need enemies anymore .
Such a f... liar
I sure am enjoying reading these 'regular updates throughout Q1' Onion Head promised us. I find it hard to believe that not one update has been put out by RNS in not far off three months.
Seingred, Sabina are obviously much larger and further along the route to production, hence why B2Gold bought them. What would be interesting to know is how much Sabina has spent on exploration before getting their project to FS level. The point is that Condor's upside case is nothing to be squaffed at, again for your benefit:
- Includes La India open pit + underground, and feeder pits
- Production rate of 150koz/year for 12 years
- 3.18 g/t for 1.47m oz gold
- AISC of $958/oz
- IRR @ $1700 gold of 54%, NPV (5% discount) of $418m (at $1800 to compare to the previous posts figures would obv be even better)
How many projects available to buy right now have these kind of numbers? Not many I'd wager.
"You say that cnr bfs was to give cnr the quickest route to profitability not demonstrate the upside to a potential aquirer. and here we are up for sale having spent a sum larger than the last raise on a mill . What does that say ?"
Are you asking me or is that a rhetorical question? Condor purchased the mill from First Majestic in early 2021 when the strategy was to fast-track La India to production (de-risk, permits, feasibility study, etc). I have no doubt that the board preferred to sell but since the market assigned little value to Condor based on it's exploration activities (owing to the gold bear market), they either had to sell at absolute bottom dollar or pursue production, with hopefully a bid coming in later. The decision to purchase the mill provided some advantages:
- It's the longest lead time item for construction so purchasing it early potentially saved 10-12 months (fast track)
- First Majestic, a major gold/silver producer accepted part payment ($3m out of $6.5m) in shares at 50p (a ~10% premium to the share price at the time), which demonstrated a vote of confidence in the company/project
Also, the mill would have to have been purchased regardless which would have been dilutive, either then or during the funding raise for mine build. As it turns out, they purchased when the market cap was at it's highest (~$60m) so in fact it was a very good decision in hindsight. Since they purchased the mill, the gold market has deteriorated (GDX fell ~40% only starting to recover some of this fall in Nov) and of course the US Sanctions on the department of Mines, which has made the possibility of raising the required capex far more difficult. You cannot blame MC for this, these events are out of his control, purchasing the mill made a lot of sense at the time as I've explained above.
Regardless, all of this is water under the bridge. What matters now is that Jim and Mark get the best price possible for the company/asset and then we can all move on.
At that price it would be an extremely expensive £50k haircut for me and not very palatable to say the least!
Cegamer, I bought back in just over 17 p having sold most around 30 p on news of sanctions and seen calibre tank the previous session. I believe Mellon average is mid 20s fully diluted. I may add a few more here if we head back to around mellons price of 15 p. Personally not heavily in here but hopeful . Good luck .
Yes I saw one poster mention comfort around the fact that their avg was 17p, and it was a measured level of exposure.
My man best move over for the mid 40s club...!
I think I read Mellon's avg was now low 30s, or even as low as late 20s by this point. If there was any way we could manage a sale price that would help us recoup at least some of our losses, at this point I'd be happy to take what would be a 10k haircut for mid 30s.
A massive shame, I had a realistic target price in my portfolio of just over a quid when I bought in years ago. What a time that was...
Nero, you mention inflation. Inflation has been gathering pace since cnr calculated the bfs last suer. It may have been formally released in nov in canada but it was calculated previously. Sabina have already paid for almost all kit. What I dont know is have they gone through full funding for mine completion if they have procured 97% . How much have they spent so far towards production? There are encouraging things in that article like the lack of permitted projects and the advantage of further resources etc. I think that the difference is scale and jurisdiction. At the end of the day, it is worth what someone is prepared to pay in this scenario.
You say that cnr bfs was to give cnr the quickest route to profitability not demonstrate the upside to a potential aquirer. and here we are up for sale having spent a sum larger than the last raise on a mill . What does that say ?
If sold it will obviously be considerably higher than the m cap , just remains to be seen if,when and how much. I hope everybody manages to get out at least at breakeven it is the least longterm holders deserve not having the benefit of wages, discounted warrants and options.
If the NPV of Condor has been independently calculated then the risk factors should already be factored into the final value. This is good news!
C f, always useful to have recent xamples.
Sale equivalent £750 m
6 G/t
97 % procurement , is it funded to construction if full procurement has been carried out. Costs for this mine are multiples of cnr mine costs.
Reserves are much larger than cnr which I believe are under 700 m oz. At 3.6 m and a much longer mine life.
Immediately and meaningfully grows B2Gold’s attributable Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources base:
Attributable Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves increase by 66% to 9.0 million gold ounces.
Attributable Measured & Indicated Mineral Resources increase by 52% to 18.5 million gold ounces.
Attributable Inferred Mineral Resources increase by 63% to 7.4 million gold ounces.
They also have underground to add like cnr. Further district scale for drilling which cnr has.
And obviously jurisdiction has its part.
Not sure how much this helps value cnr but what it does underline for me is the kind of deal I would imagine, ie a paper deal which makes me still question this idea of an asset sale over a takeover or merger. I still do not see an example of this scenario apart from large companies selling off single assets. I do not like the lack of clarity . Not long ago mellon was telling his followers on his podcast that cnr would be delivering 150 k oz production this year.
It states as usual that the 1.1 b deal is on a fully dilution basis so it is highly unlikely that mellons 6.666m shares for a 2 month £1 m loan and 16.666 m options all at 15 p will not come into play. Which I think if anybody checks will find mellons breakeven is lower tan most here.
It would be much clearer if it was a clean takeout and we may well find that the plan has to change again. Meanwhile we will be burning through that very dilutional raise.
I think the sharp lift of resources and scale is the reason b2 have invested £750 paper.
A cash deal would have been lower.
Worth a looksie at aris gold merge with gcm.
Also zijin buyout of continental gold in 2020.
Again 3.2 m reserves , 11 total and a mostly constructed 250 oz pa mine .
$us in 2020.
200 k plus pa mines are the benchmark for larger tier producers. Cnr would be looking for mid tier like calibre, equinox etc level.
The asset is clearly worth a lot more than current m cap but how much and what the actual implications of asset sale are are not helpful and it looks like the market may agree so far. Lets hope we have some proper clarity and good news.
Hirsch remember Sabina have more than double the grade which keeps AISC lower, however yes costs will be much higher now due to much higher inflation since Sabina produced their FS in early 2021.
(bah hit the submit button by accident, and stupid LSE doesn't support tabs so no indentations)
Some things to note:
- These numbers are purely based on the feasibility studies for each resource
- Sabina includes open pit + underground, Condor does not include underground
- Condor's FS was designed to provide Condor with the lowest cost route to production, not to demonstrate the upside to a potential acquirer
Obv the Sabina resource is very large compared to Condor, but the FS doesn't really tell the whole picture. The success of the sale depends on Jim and Mark's ability to sell it based on the upside case established in the Sept 2021 PEA:
- Includes La India open pit + underground, and feeder pits
- Production rate of 150koz/year for 12 years
- 3.18 g/t for 1.47m oz gold
- AISC of $958/oz
- IRR @ $1700 gold of 54%, NPV (5% discount) of $418m (at $1800 to compare to the previous posts figures would obv be even better)
These figures are more comparable to Sabina's since they are based on costs before inflation started taking off. Condor's FS takes this inflation into account but Sabina's does not, their costs are certainly much higher now.
We've got a great project here, get us $200m minimum please Jim and Mark!!
Thanks Nero
I don t think AISC is 30% cheaper in Ca. than in Nicaragua
For those that are interested, here's my comparison between Sabina and Condor:
- Project jurisdiction:
- Sabina: Canada; Condor: Nicaragua
- Feasibility study completed:
- Sabina: Q1 2021; Condor: Q3 2022
- IRR @ $1800 gold:
- Sabina: 31.3%; Condor: 33.4%
- Post-tax NPV with 5% discount rate @ $1800 gold:
- Sabina: $1.1b; Condor: $146.07m
- AISC:
- Sabina: $775/oz; Condor: $1039/oz
- Production rate:
- Sabina: 223koz/year for 15 years; Condor: $1039/oz
- Mineral reserve:
- Sabina: 18.7Mt @ 6.0 g/t for 3.6m oz gold; Condor: 7.3Mt @ 2.56g/t for 602,000 oz gold
Some things to note:
Great find CF, fingers crossed we can attract a similar bid based on our proven NPV!
The interesting bit is that sabina's FS had a post tax NPV 5% at $1.1bn CAD at $1600/oz. B2 bought them for $1.1bn CAD! Yes, you can argue the gold price is higher and they are in Canada and have a large resource but buying at that price is very interesting!
Wow. Those numbers are not dissimilar to Condor with 200k ounces a year, except the valuation as Condor are £30m and Sabina just sold for £740m. Nice. Would be have with 20% of thet valuation. Goes to show there is good money looking for a home in the gold world.
B2g must be laughing there nuts of at condor gold onion tried failed miserably
Iam going Hawaii 5 I will pull him if he’s giving one of he’s preaching talks Ypu will not find onion there he’s parked up in th flat at london considering he’s next scam
Never mind you can meet Condor at Master Investor on 18th March, you know the show where Jim Mellon gets on stage and preaches all things Condor - the last time he was suggesting, when the share price was circa 45p, that the company was one of the best gold stock opportunities on AIM.
Little did we know he demanded warrants and conversion of a £1m loan both at 15p a share 12/18 months later - talk about shafting his flock.
Nearly 8 weeks since the last rns absolutely taking the diss out of people