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One wonders why a quite well known mining correspondent and 'information analyst' is currently in Nicaragua, again more speculation, news of some kind has to be forthcoming shortly.
https://twitter.com/PaulHarrisGold/status/1631798399937675264?s=20
Bit of a pointless RNS IMHO, given (with the benefit of hindsight of course) none of those approachs resulted in a mutally acceptable offer. Provided a nice spike for traders to exit though, which I gather is what you're after Seingred. Just because you want it, doesn't mean it'll happen though, right? Given SHG's sale process was ultimately unsuccessful, I don't think it implies anything untoward if we don't get one of those. Indeed, I would not be suprised if we didn't get another RNS until "THE" RNS. That is not "promoting" that view any more than you promote your views, but given the lack of news so far, it seems like a perfectly plausible outcome to me.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SHG/statement-regarding-possible-offers-update-g9396x5fhjra0x0.html
A link to one of the rns relating to offers for Shg including regulatory obligations. Been expecting something similar if things progress.
One thing i notice is that a project like this actually has considerable value to a miner because they can build mine to how they operate and almost certainly have cosy deals with mining equipment manufacturers. A virgin project ready to operate is far more attractive in some ways to certain miners than an existing project but not setup to preference. I suspect Chinese were knocking on door a long time ago and this sell process probably started because of it. Also if miners are being asked that is a certain move That would be very forthcoming and helped by Nic government if it meant favours with China. This could be the deal and it would probably be a good outcome allround but until we see an RNS to support this can only be included in the pot of potentials. Certainly feels the lack of news in this case is a good thing. Hopefully some update at some not so distant point.
It is worth noting that companies often comment on bulletin board rumours, as I said book5 does seem to have local contacts, he says representatives of Zhaojin Mining have been on the ground so make of it what you will, in this instance I do accept it as more than likely.
It would make perfect sense to sell the project to the Chinese as they are relatively immune from the political scene in country, one thing is very clear Zhaojin has a balance sheet strong enough to make a $100m+ offer almost out of petty cash.
I suspect an update is not far away.
Nero, peeps have discounted book5 when they have heard things they dont want to hear but have taken note when comments have suited . Fairly predictable. Chinese makes sense, lets hope that leaky leaky has a positive effect on sp because I dont want to rely on a pay out from an asset sale whenever and would prefer to choose my own exit point. We await some formal news. Irrespective of nda an aproach is price sensitive and we should expect rns imv.
Well well well it appears that book5 is indeed speaking truth. And to add, discussions involving Condor, the Minister of Energy and Mines and Shandong Zhaojin Group are ongoing so at a minimum there is serious interest from SZ. If book5 is correct and artisinal miners are being told to leave the concessions then discussions must be advanced.
All good signs but let's not count our chickens just yet...
Let's see
I just had a look at their balance sheet. Net assets were approaching $3bn at the end of 2021 so they look like they are big enough to stand behind a $150m or so bid. Having said that it would not surprise me to hear that half a dozen potential suitors have kicked the tyres in recent months. Zhaojin are likely just one of many.
It's been a month since I expected an update with nothing forthcoming. A deal by the end of this month looks like a stretch, unless we have something unexpected in the works. I know MC won't talk to anyone at the moment, at least not on this matter, so we are all guessing. Even the MMs have run out of ideas. A penny up or down doesn't seem to move the trading dial, and they probably don't want to drop it much further until something tangible is in the air.
There doesn't seem much point in more speculation. Everything worth saying seems to have been said, including a lot that wasn't worth saying.....and still isn't.
One thing I will say though is that I don't see much happening in the way of exercising options and warrants. The insiders probably can't and the outsiders are in the same boat as the rest of us - will I get a return on my 22p, 35p, 40p, 48p, 50p etc? It will be even more frustrating for them.
They look like they fit the bill. Market cap of £3bn. On a separate note, mako just gone up 50% on news of refinancing some debt. They are looking to up list to the tsx and do a share consolidation to appeal to different funds. Calibre heading back up as well. Looks positive for the producers in nic.
Simms, but shanta have cash incoming and about to double it. If they cannot attract a bid in the region some expect for cnr why do we think that cnr with no production, sanctions and still not all the land is going to. This is to all intents a fire sale simms, if it is not sold the chances of cnr progressing it are very small. You do not know that it will not be sold under £100 m . Shanta have a production record and cash flow unlike cnr. Because mc mentioned 1-200 m doesnt guarantee anything. Many of you have been parroting his sp over £1 for years and here we are at 16 p.
All miners are grossly undervalued in my view, especially Shanta and hence why they did not sell. The value of a mine is the value of the cashflow incoming but pis are very impatient and why investors with long time horizons can see the value more clearly. Condor will not be sold for less than $100m so just like Shanta if the money is not offered then it is not for sale. This value would have been made clear early on to remove time wasters so if Zhaojin mining are serious then they know the take out price. Miners in many sectors have done extremely well and you might expect to see some miners in Silver or copper diversify to include Gold. We focus on other gold miners but really if you are a company growing you would probably be wise to diversify as well as geographically. I agree that there should be some update at some point to at least confirm we have multiple parties interested so we know where we stand as this is 3 months into the process and surely something is possible to be shared with investors.
5-0, I find that a lot of what book 5 says makes sense and dont write off what he says. More sense than a lot of the hopeful drivel on here for years. Been saying with the geo politics china is the most likely suitor. Just remains to be seen how helpful ortega is. Chinese has to be his preferred destination. Only fairly recently that we heard about co op from mc whereas book has been talking about it for years. Interesting though that the minute book gives a positive bone everyone jumps on it lol
Geopoliticals are still deteriorating, nicaragua again joined belarus, syria, north korea supporting Russia in ukraine at un vote and have stripped hundreds of opposition ,writers etc of their nationality. This sleepy joe rubbish on here is more hopeful bunkum. The next president if republican will be more agressive whether the orange looney or florida man de santis gets in.
Simms, glut in mining, have you seen first majestics latest figures and sp crash. Expenses are rising rapidly and the gold price is a long way from its ath. You mentioned shg recently, I am in there. When 3 offers were announced the sp rose and m cap went to around £130 m from memory , dropped back to £100-110m now. They are about to double production to 100 m oz and already have 1.8 m oz at around 11 g with drilling ongoing proven in w kenya . The idea that this will reach anywhere near 200 m $ seems pretty unlikely to me.
Some seem to be promoting the idea that we shouldnt hear anything until the deal is all done.That seems worrying to me.means everyone is locked in now until final news whatever that may be mm. Mc did mention updates through q1. I havnt often seen radio silence be great but we will see.
Electric Lion - it was simply an observation. Your ‘commit to a strategy’ made me smile; like the ‘buy & hold’ of old? I’ve learnt the hard way that in todays world that can cost… a lot! My strategy is simple to make a profit where possible. I’ve done that with this over the years, selling at 57 and taking initial investment out and letting the profit run. I sold again at around 35… third time unlucky I came back in at 25. I know you think this was always a sale prospect from the start… I didn’t and thought it was a development into production at the moment it’s a shambles in my opinion but I should still get out with my shirt either way
The more miners bidding on the asset the higher the price we will get for the asset. We just need more 2 or more and hopefully we will find a solution. There are very few high quality assets like this probably 12-18 months from production so given the glut of cash in mining companies and a sale price of $100-$200m that is a bargain to most. If the price is not right then i hope we find the partner and move on. as i have said even giving 40% equity away and getting a $100m loan that would be paid back in 12-18 months from cashflow is a great solution as it keeps Condor with 60% equity and upside in the project. The investor gets all their money back and 8% interest and then get 40% free equity to enjoy the dividends or sell off. The 40% equity would be worth $100m so effectively investor would be able to double their money in 30 months or less based on 18 month production and 12 months first year of production. Just need to crack on but great to know we have one serious contender and hopefully others will get involved.
It is fair to say that I do not have much time for Book5 over on A@VFN, he has been bashing Condor ever since they put the project up for sale, he does however have contacts on the ground in Nicaragua.
He has now suggested that Zhaojin Mining has been on site recently and has previously implied the project will be sold to the Chinese, this makes a great deal of sense.
In the absence of news speculation is all one can comment over, IMO there may be some substance in this.
https://en.zhaojin.com.cn/
I think you need to commit to a strategy. Then, no matter what the SP does, at least you will know what you should do. Given your concern, what do you plan to do about it?
For example, if your strategy is to hold until sale, then the ups and downs of the SP in-between are somewhat moot, if you're worried about liquidity or feel over-exposed, then reduce your holding accordingly, etc
Ideally you'd know the answers to these questions before you buy a single share, but if you didn't, it's never too late to start thinking about it.
I hear what everyone is saying on the news front; I said this ‘dead in the water’ without news and it’s proving to be the case. My concern now is if this drags on it’s getting difficult to sell larger holdings and if people tire of waiting it wouldn’t take much selling to tip it into sell-off mode and we are left up a creak without a paddle
Personally I don't think we can imply anything by the silence Simms, we just have to wait for news. But there is a time limit to this process because:
- The sales process Hannam and Partners are running has a timetable, a first close and second close
- They raised £3.3m in December (US$300,000 of which goes straight to First Majestic to pay the balance of the SAG mill) which really needs to see Condor through the entire sales process. I assume opex has been cut to a minimum to make this cash last as long as possible but either the asset/company gets sold or they need to raise cash again.
- The Government want to see a mine built with the jobs and taxes created as a result, they do not care who builds the mine. I suspect Condor would be risking their permits if they do not demonstrate that they have a realistic path to building the mine. That means they need to sell or raise the capital and proceed with the build ourselves, I doubt they can afford to stall.
I think if there was no interest by now Condor would know it and update shareholders surely? If we assume they would never have started this process without some interest and JM not wanting to destroy shareholder value, given he is in for close to 30% and shares are down over 50% from before the change of direction then we have to assume that 3 months of silence is not a bad thing, i hope. How long this goes on for is another matter as our mill and cleared site ready for construction will start to fall into disrepair and we have monthly outgoings regardless. We can hope that multiple parties have shown interest and perhaps to get these parties to raise their offers an RNS to that effect might help the matter. It helped Shanta Gold share price, although that did not lead to a sale but in this case the BOD have expressly gone out to market while Shanta were probably just trying to tell the market their shares were undervalued and if the share price does not rise then offers will continue. I think Shanta did well out of telling the market that there is a real value to their projects greatly in excess of the market cap and that helped. Lets see how this plays out.
No News is Good News…MC actually said that normally takes 3-4 months…but could take 6… timescale unpredictable
Bearing in mind the history of announcements about Condors progress do you think a statement that everything was on track with the sales process would actually help the share price? I suspect only firm offers of hard cash will have any meaningful impact.
I can’t recall when it was that “news throughout Q1” was actually mentioned. On the 29th November in a Proactive interview which is on Condor’s Website, Mark is questioned about the sale process. He says they hope to get a number of parties interest and to have a competitive bid situation managed by Hannam. He said he expects this to take 3 to 4 months.
We are currently at the end of month 3 and should therefore expect to get a result during March, which starts tomorrow.
Absolutely - what happened to the 'news throughout Q1'?
I certainly hope your positive view is the right one ICB888. I understand that MC cannot provide a running commentary on the sale process without jeopardising the sale, but my patience is wearing thin because he actually told us that he WOULD keep us updated! Surely it would not be an issue to say that the process was on track (if that is the case) without any more details being disclosed? If it is not on track, then I understand that they may need more time and will be in no hurry to give out an RNS. They cannot tell us one thing then do the other without us thinking that there could be a problem. I remain fully invested here, but underwater.
Very sensible comments from Simms45 and ElectricLion, which provide a good overview of the current situation. There is no benefit to Condor in giving a running commentary concerning the discussions with parties interested in buying the assets. Even disclosing the number of interested parties could be commercially sensitive. As ElectricLion says there will be NDA’s in place making it virtually impossible to give out any meaningful information.
One day an RNS will drop out of the blue and if you are not invested at that point you will almost certainly be paying a much higher price than today to get back in. Patience should be rewarded as I can’t imagine they entered into this process without a clear idea of where the offers would start and how high they might get in a bidding war. Jim Mellon is nobody’s fool when it comes to extracting substantial returns from his investments.
Take book5's comment with a pinch of salt IMHO, he has his own agenda. I don't think it's that odd that we haven't had news, frustrating yes, but not odd. There'll be NDA's and lawyers all over the place. Artisnal miners being told to leave isn't particularly RNS-worth anyway IMHO.