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Started: grippa, 23 May 2024 19:43
Last post: Moneymule888, 12 Jun 2024 13:07
If it’s a delay in capex spend (which many companies are doing as a result of inflationary headwinds and cash preservation) then all things being equal this should really lead to revenue upgrades in future periods with a return to the revenue levels previously seen.
The fact that over 50% of their base are long-standing customers would appear this to be the case. However, is management doing a smoke screen on the product when in reality there’s something better out there and they’re simply buying less from Calnex now
.
Sorry for the delay in responding Grippa, however had the market forecasts I need, just about when you last posted (see how they compare to the forecasts you've seen).
And this post should also add to any forecasts that Dacintaccos may have found by now, and that is: revenue for this new trading year, ending March 2025 is forecast for £18.6m with the bottom line net profit at £0.3m.
So slightly better than the year just recorded - but still a long way from the year prior to that, ending March '23 where revenue was £27.4m with net profit at £5.91m!
And rough figures for March '26 are suggesting revenue increasing from '25, up to £20.6m and net profit also increasing to £1.3m
The forward PE ratio I'm seeing, based on the' 25 forecast, is a staggeringly high P/E of 92.3!
:(
However the DCF Discounted Cash Flow (a v rough 'estimated' metric) is suggesting a fair SP price of 80p now, whilst analysts guesstimates range from a high of £1.15 down to £1.03 (current analysts consensus forecast average target for this year is for £1.09)
As the current SP is way below all those SP forecasts, it would appear to be in the bargain basement.
(Almost tempted to buy blindly if anything in the 40's pops up).
However that astronomical forward P/E ratio calls for some uber-strong investor confidence in CLX.
Profit warning-hit companies usually respond to the upside approx 1 year on, from after the last profit warning, so all in CLX could be much improved from this autumn.
Coincidentally, just about when this year's interim H1 is published round about this mid November for the 6 months ending this September '24.
So it's that half year report this autumn, that will be the deal breaker! Between now and that significant H1 then, all is just opinion and guesswork.
Has anyone got any info on the industry/technical business reasons for Calnex losing so much business? Or is it just an issue of the general malaise of becoming a telecoms sector casualty?
So from watching the presentation i noticed they said they are confident in FY25 results being in line with current expectations, but what are these current expectations? By the sounds of things the telecoms market is still flat
Hi Velo and Thanks, I didnt get that bit either, but nothing new to me as accountings so complex (or can be if they want). I still think in 2 years time could be back to normal and a fantastic oportunity but said that before and fallen flat on my face. I have a copy of forecasts someone sent my on facebook but dont know how I could send them to you........Hmmmm??
"As you can tell I m no accountant but..."
-----------
Neither am I Grippa, was waiting for further updates market guidance from the company so can get a better grip on their forecasts, but that pre-tax liss threw me too. Yes it was a £400k PRE TAX LOSS but wasn't expecting the net profit after taxes to show a tiny Net Profit of just £40k.
I, (and the market) were expecting a small loss but no - they've closed the books showing a small net profit. So no red goes into the history books. You're quite right about the cash on hand. They've stated about £11.9m cash at the year end. As far as I can make out they're laying the blame for the loss not only on market conditions beyond their control but equally they bought too much inventory as it was predicated on better forecasts which never happened. So payments for the inventory adds to the pre-tax loss but I'm still gob-smacked that they have not yet shown a year in net loss - officially (as laughably tiny as it is) they have in fact closed the year showing a tiny profit. There's been no comment about that. All were led to believe a net loss was on the cards but they've managed to pull off ending the year with a net profit - and that's what goes in the history records! :)
Late and phone playing up, so hope this all comes out sensibly.
Started: ripley94, 4 Oct 2023 18:55
Last post: ripley94, 22 May 2024 15:59
Bought the 27th November slice back at 10.30am strait through on 54p limit .
That will teach me dealing on phone app wile traveling I thought ( had only logged out of acc at 10am )
But a sale of RR. to raise funds had just notified must be addicted .
My broker shows day low , but this site has 51.5 as day low .
Brokers market fed keeps going down , whole market might be well down ?
Brilliant little company.
Sold the 2nd buy of 11/10/23 back for 71p on 70p order, bep still shows as 68p.
Chart shows it topped soon after at 73.9p.
Maybe it will get back to my first buy of 99p on 4th October soon .
Sold the 3rd buy of 16/10/23 back today for 61p.
A Penny more then the second buy of 11/10/23 which I posted was a mistake that evening .
Only waited one month here .
Bep still shows as 68p.
P/L shows a nice profit ( actual )
Unrealised P/L.... a loss about half of above .( paper )
Total P/L.............. a larger figure then above profit. ( paper )
Well, I picked some up at around 41p.
I’ve had this company on my watch list for a few years- The accounts are a textbook quality company. Very strong cash position to see it through the recession. High Gross, Operating and net margin.
Consistent high growth rate - Until now, but it's a recession, what does one expect?
Hold for a few years, and I think this will again shine as a quality compounder.
A new product pipeline is also on the way.
If it was a Tr-1 holder selling, then a strong rebound should result.
Started: Velo, 15 May 2024 13:49
Last post: Velo, 15 May 2024 14:31
Started checking my sources on the date for the full year trading update and it's the 21st May everywhere with one source saying "the company has announced.." etc., so started reading the RNS's and there was an announcement from the company under that RNS link above about the 21st.So it's confirmed. And also sadly the RNS confirmed the revenue is expected to come in at market expectations - and that is for only £16m Revenue (against revenue into the 20's last year). So confidence in showing a profit diminishes.
But a lot of confidence in the SP by the market currently, so will just have to wait until the results are out next Tuesday.
" Decent recovery last two trading days, no news apparent though "
- - - - - - - - - - -
No news? I think there might be :)
I am led to believe that the full year trading results may be published next Tuesday, May 21st.
However CLX's website is keeping shtum and there's no mention of the date (last year it was out on the 24th).
It's possible that if there has been a continuation from the H1 interim results, from late last year, then the company may beat the consensus analysts forecasts.
Market sentiment is for the company to come in, in the red, with a small loss but it's possible the company (based on the last known trading update from last autumn) may come in with a decent net profit, and also better than market expectations for revenue too.
No one knows of course - hence if the results do come out next week, there is a possibility that the results could beat market sentiment expectations, even though they will still be lower than results achieved last year - but may be still be better than the market was expecting.
" Decent recovery last two trading days, no news apparent though
Started: grippa, 4 Apr 2024 13:07
Last post: Pedrobull, 13 May 2024 16:14
Decent recovery last two trading days, no news apparent though
Although there was no news flow from Calnec -25% the funds largest monthly decliner, we can only put thjis down to what the broking community refers to as READ-ACROSS from the takeover of Spirent communications, which is held in the BVuffetology fund. the simple bear case would go something like this ; Spirent is Calnexs largest sales channel partner theresfore and change of ownershir will be depremental or disruptive to calnexs relationship. This is naturally something we considered durin our investment process and was an arewa of focus durin our due dilligance prior to purchasing the positrion. Spirent and Calnex have worked sucsessfully for over ten years. The hardware supplied via Spirent is all badged under the Calnex name, which is important as in the even of any change to the supply chain it is clear for the customer where the kit origonates from. Crucially calnex products are differentiated with capabilities that competitors can not easily replicate. Therefore we expect customers will quickly adapt to any potential change in distribution partner, as has been Calnexs experience in the past!!
Started: CGH1984, 6 Mar 2024 07:44
Last post: CGH1984, 6 Mar 2024 07:44
Having said the below, the news of the takeover bid did overshadow the results at Spirent. There was an 80% drop in profit which was pretty brutal in 2023. Hopefully, 2024 has started more optimistically, but it mayvtake a while to filter through into results. Without a takeover, this may take a while to recover
Started: CGH1984, 16 Jan 2024 10:54
Last post: CGH1984, 5 Mar 2024 19:54
Me too- I took 1/3 out of spirent as a hedge and put it here. I can't believe this share price will stay here for long. Either a takeover or, with the positive noises from the PMI numbers, things will surely move up from here. Either way, I'm expecting my portfolio to be a little rosier in a few months' time.
Spirent take over at 175p cash.
I have reinvested some of the proceeds in advance into CLX
GLA
This share usually lags Spirent a bit(not a rule, but generally). Spirent just released a trading update and seemed to be hitting their (albeit downgraded) predictions for the year. Their share price has recovered a bit and it could mean these companies have seen the bottom of the market and are starting to see green shoots as the recovery happens. That's my positive take on it anyway
Started: Markyb311, 5 Mar 2024 12:20
Last post: Markyb311, 5 Mar 2024 12:20
I topped up this morning Pedro, bit puzzled why the SP hasn't moved at all this morning.
Started: Dartron, 26 Oct 2023 09:18
Last post: WorldWidePleb, 8 Nov 2023 08:20
Good to see this starting to re rate.
Yeah Bwoy.
Announcing its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2023 on Tuesday, 21 November 2023.
The management team will provide a live presentation relating to the results via the Investor Meet Company platform on Wednesday, 22 November 2023 at 1pm.
Started: Velo, 14 Oct 2023 18:26
Last post: WorldWidePleb, 16 Oct 2023 07:39
So it's just made up and not company-given guidance.
Just before I sign off and leave you in peace, a quick note on a fluctuating SP for the next 12 months.
First thing is, I’ve come to strongly believe that after a negative trading update, it only qualifies as a genuine profit warning if the SP drops at least 20% - on the day of the announcement!
(I’ve often seen x40% drops on the day of the announcement, but the research papers/ebooks say to expect a minimum of x15%). I’ve always found in general it’s a lot more than x15% so just rechecked Oct 10th SP to be sure
- it opened at 94.6 and closed the day down at 66
- so that’s the top side of a clear x30% drop in one day, easily beating my preference for a 20% drop. So no doubt about it.
2nd thing now the SP is definitely a victim of an official Profit Warning is that the SP will attempt to rise over the next 12 months but it will be quote: “unreliable”.
Some may attempt to draw new conclusions if it rises considerably - and here is the 2nd point - it’s my highly personal opinion - you won’t find it any research papers, it’s my own observations over the years - no matter how high the SP rises I’ve always found it never exceeds past the SP that was present on the day before the announcement - (for the next 12 months) - and that was a very flat open-and close of 95p.
(If it does - please hunt me down and haul me back here, as it will aide my own research).
What that means is, I can certainly entertain the notion that over the next 12 months the SP may visit the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s or the 80’s - but in my opinion it will never exceed (or reach) the SP that prevailed on the day before the Profit warning was issued - which as said was sitting at 95p all day.
My opinion? The SP may never reach 95 let alone exceed past it - at least for the next 12 months. (Hope I don’t come to regret saying that :)
And any further downside to the SP from here? - well that is anybody’s guess. The situation is too unreliable to be more confident.
Earnings? - from Stockopedia (subscription access only).
Sharepad is the main alternative, but that’s even more expensive!
I did trial Research Tree (analysts) for awhile, but was running up too much expense, so cancelled it.
I’ve been with Stocko since 2016 and on the whole have come to trust their data.
- - - - - - - - -
You can get very limited free access though, to things like Simply Wall Street.
Here’s a couple of current copy/paste snippets from S/WStreet on Calnex:
Highlighted with a red warning is -
“ Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 88.9% per year for the next 3 years “
&
“New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth”
Earnings are forecast to decline …for the foreseeable future.
This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well.
This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company.”
Where are you getting your earning figures from?
Well, what a bl@@dy awful mess since I last looked in on my little fav, CLX! Geezalou!!!
In the early days when this forum was just a few months old, I did opine that the PE ratio was too high and therefore far too rich for me - and soon regretted not buying, when I realised bona fide growth stocks are allowed to sport high PE ratio’s - as long as they deliver the goods.
Deliver the goods? Well that’s not gonna happen for the next year or two. If it was too high back then, it’s current forward PE ratio is in Tesla-type stratosphere heights of fancy. It’s showing a forward PE of just under 70 based on the new future reduced earnings guidance. Anyway, let’s get the bad news out of the way.
I believe 48p was the CLX’s IPO launch price - so as of Friday, it’s back to the starting grid and Day-One, all over again.
I’m seeing fair value given in some quarters via the DCF metric as a staggeringly low 12p. I would tend to double that to 24p as a potential low as it’s not uncommon for many IPO’s to fall to half their launch price within their first 3 years, before continuing.
Earnings are forecast to drop from last year’s all time high of £5.91m, to £1.35m for ‘24
- with 2025 showing even worse, of only £0.2m !
That’s the second profit warning this year so the SP will be v unreliable for the next 12 months. True Long term holders can buy the dips (small amounts each time as SP unreliability makes the floor questionable in that 12 months).
Although the RNS said:
“REVENUE FOR FY24 WILL BE IN REGION OF 20-30 PER CENT BELOW
CURRENT MARKET EXPECTATIONS
IN FIRST SIX MONTHS OF FY24, COMPANY'S ORDER INFLOW HAS
REMAINED
AT SUBDUED LEVELS
H2 FY24 WILL BE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENT IN A RETURN TO GROWTH IN FY25 “
- the market has already decided and forecasts for ‘25 are for a measley £200,000 in earnings.
So anyone’s guess when a bounce may occur. No doubt there will be ultimately - but not in the next 12 months, barring occasional short-lived false-positive rises.
This is beyond the control of the company, so not a management fault issue. All companies go through these swings. It’s not an insolvency issue.
Have a plan if buying dips - not gut feelings or endless random guesses of: “This is the floor”.
The company will survive this but clearly it’s going to take a year or two. Profit warnings nearly always turn out to be worse than the initial RNS leads you to believe. The forecast guidance for ‘25 earnings is truly shocking. Wasn’t expecting that.
Still have a soft spot for CLX -
BUT first things first - the H1 trading update will be published next month round about the 21st November. All market forecast guidance will be revised by the market after that is received.
Even if I wanted to buy right now - I would never buy before a trading update is due to be released, unless I had some sort of information that no one else had.
Started: wetherboy, 22 Sep 2023 19:07
Last post: wetherboy, 22 Sep 2023 19:07
Does Spirent CloudSure have its roots in Calnex? Anyone know?
Started: Raydio, 3 Aug 2023 15:53
Last post: Raydio, 3 Aug 2023 17:00
Dartron, thanks for that link/update in your post.
Tipped in Shares magazine, they say £1.80 next 18 months. I think we will see this far sooner personally.
https://twitter.com/SHARESmag/status/1687039689750880256?s=20
Could good RNS coming, takeover or people seeing a rise in share price and just getting on board knowing this is likely a good company for the longer term. Time will tell. Always liked Calnex and traded the share profitably. Last holding bought at 117.69 quite a while back so pleased to see a profit now. A stock I do not want to be completely out of at any time.
Started: K3VMC, 3 Aug 2023 10:26
Last post: Dartron, 3 Aug 2023 11:22
Moving up on low volume, no sellers down here. My target here is around 1.40 very soon.
Perhaps the update from SPT has helped a little.
Not many buys, but moving up? RNS trading update in the post?
Started: CGH1984, 13 Jul 2023 10:24
Last post: CGH1984, 13 Jul 2023 10:24
Spirent have just posted an RNS with pretty positive noises about q2. Should bode well for Calnex too
Started: stargate, 4 Jul 2023 08:02
Last post: Dartron, 4 Jul 2023 08:26
This hit 1.30 last week, 3 days running. This is going to have no problem getting back to 1.45, then posssibly more if the update is good.
Appealing chart, short term, because the relative strength indicator crossed above 50, which is bullish. However unfortunately there is a major down trendline at 125, and also a major previous low also at 125. The coincidence of those two factors at the same price, makes this a weak buy. Admittedly there appears to be a significant base before the most recent price action , but the sp, would need to get past 125, before confidence of further rise was given.
Last post: wetherboy, 21 Jun 2023 12:08
Raydio. Up, up slowly will do me.
I agree that something "must be in the air" in view of the rally in the share price. I am thinking the lyrics if a song by 5th Dimension aptly apply to recent rally and hopefully get to new highs on what news is coming.......hopefully.
I know nobody's listening but I'll say it again. Think of a song by Thunderclap Newman. British, yes British band...
Blue today in a sea of red. Happy days.
Good rise so far today. Happy bunny if it sticks but I get a feeling there's some good news abounding. May need to wait until August.
Last post: elrico, 23 May 2023 21:42
Indeed. Very encouraging signs. Please with strategic acquisition paying off already. Adds to profitability, but will cost an extra £1 in cash/shares.
https://twitter.com/lemminginvestor/status/1661089259078467598?s=46
Fairly positive outlook and Tommy is very conservative so expect 24 to be better than he might suggest. I expect the bottom’s been set and it’s up from here. DYOR
Feeling nervous but have a few £ to invest if it drops a lot. Long term prospects are still excellent I feel.
If it stays below £1 today I may be tempted back in. For once I managed to sell the high a few months back with a view to getting back in on any decent dip.
Last post: wetherboy, 7 Apr 2023 11:22
Rivaldo. If you’re still around what’s your current take on clx? I see Spirent are getting a few broker upgrades. TIA.
Started: wetherboy, 18 Mar 2023 14:37
Last post: wetherboy, 18 Mar 2023 14:37
Started: CGH1984, 15 Mar 2023 12:45
Last post: wetherboy, 15 Mar 2023 13:38
Silly me. Director buys we’re dated 13th
I’m happy for the directors to be getting shares at these prices. Will their buys show in the trades on this site?
Looks liek someone is building a position at this price. Unknown trades seem clsoer to buy range than sell range. I do think the sell off is overdone - this is a company that is in profit, cash in the bank, and is likely to make profit again next year, albeit a smaller one than this. I feel confident that this is a good long-term hold, and I picked up some more a couple of days ago on that basis.
Last post: oogleflugal, 7 Mar 2023 17:48
This whole 5g thing has been a very expensive red herring especially with the Chinese taking Boris for a long ride costing Vod and Bt several million or was it billion.
30% drop for the profit warning of the year which hasn’t even started yet?!
Drop overdone and bounce should start,imo
Price is holding nicely and might bounce from here because this year earning is at expectation, so do not really know why sp should not be bouncing from here.
Cenkos slash their FY24 forecasts down from 7p EPS to 3.6p ! That's a pretty hefty reduction in forecasts. 120p share price that's a forward PE of 33. Looks very expensive to me here unless you believe FY25 will see a very big rebound in earnings. With this in mind I wouldn't be surprised to see the price drop quite a bit further here.
Started: Raydio, 7 Mar 2023 11:10
Last post: kingsinbad, 7 Mar 2023 12:15
Bad day for SCSW, CLX, TRMR, RCH all down today. They've suddenly gone very quiet...
I can see the price dropping to anywhere between 80p-100p given that the forecast for the coming year has been slashed in half to 3.6p EPS (mitigated a little by the forecast £17m cash pile).
CLX shareholders were fortunate to have a proxy company like SPT to follow. Having sold out as posted previously, I was amazed the share price held and then bounced as it did (and was starting to doubt whether it had been correct to sell). Those left in had a wonderful opportunity to take profits before today's warning.
CLX is a very good company, but affected by short-term factors. It had to trade perfectly to justify its premium rating. The negative outlook might perhaps encourage bid interest I suppose, but that's no reason to invest in itself.
CLX will probably fall alot more yet. They are still on a high P/E, and they look like they going to have a bad year or so ahead...
Calnex was profitable for me when I sold at 157p. The price continued to rise later which was not that pleasing to see but after the plunge today I have bought at around levels previously bought at. May fall more but longer term am positive.
Started: rivaldo, 23 Jan 2023 07:46
Last post: wetherboy, 2 Feb 2023 16:56
Looks like CLX is trying to prove some of you wrong. Big jump today, maybe an insider bought for a change?
Lot of PDMR selling also supports your view point. It's quite common to issue profit warning.
For transparency I decided to sell all the rest of my holding on Friday after SPT's profit warning, having had a rethink after my initial sales and post here. On such a premium multiple any doubt or concern over trading could translate into quite a hefty reversal, so I decided to crystallise my several "birds in the hand"!
My sales seemed to be made into good liquidity, so there seemed to be decent demand out ther although as Friday continued the price did seem to be dropping further.
Good luck all. I may well be entirely wrong as this is a good quality company with an evidently very capable CEO. It's just that at this point the downside risk seems to heavily outweigh the upside.
Started: rivaldo, 20 Jan 2023 08:22
Last post: rivaldo, 20 Jan 2023 08:22
CLX's major customer, Spirent (SPT), have this morning reported "delays to 'customers' investment decisions" and an increased H2 bias.
This, on top of the number of recent PMDR sell trades by CLX directors, led me to take profits on a decent percentage of my holding first thing today. None of these trades have yet been reported as presumably they're above NMS.
I'll retain the remainder and may well buy back (or regret selling!) as CLX is a terrific company with excellent prospects. But it's on a premium rating which demands perfection in performance, so a little caution is perhaps justified as I had quite a large holding here and very nice profits since buying in immediately post the IPO at 50p or so.
Started: rivaldo, 17 Jan 2023 07:46
Last post: rivaldo, 17 Jan 2023 07:46
That's an extremely impressive new NED appointment as CLX look to "exploit the growth in the testing market, with the need for greater efficiency and performance in data centre operations":
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/calnex-solutions-CLX/share-news/Calnex-Solutions-PLC-Board-Changes/89989435
"Helen Kelisky brings over 30 years' of technology sales leadership experience and a track record of driving top line growth, leading national and international businesses. Helen is currently Managing Director of Google Cloud in the UK and Ireland, responsible for leading its sales strategy and go-to-market sales operations. Previous roles include Board member and Vice President of cloud sales at Salesforce UKI, and Vice President of Cloud at IBM, where she spearheaded the $1 billion+ business for cloud services and software Sales and Delivery."
"Stephen Davidson, Non-Executive Chairman of Calnex, commented:
"We are excited to welcome Helen to the Board. Her experience across the cloud and data centre world will undoubtedly be of immense value to Calnex as we exploit the growth in the testing market, with the need for greater efficiency and performance in data centre operations."