Member Info for neon

I was* running

Thanks for your posts. Very encouraging and extremely delightful! And thanking you again for another reason, your link forced me to check minto's update re revb.

Debs will rise even futher once revb post of their trading upates/results IMO.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adam-minto-5ba08b25_re-imagining-the-revolution-the-makeup-share-7450968868925272064-diRb/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAVUNOUBSHgT7ohDPZTmP7Y0AdiRTh01oxQ

I running all kinds of scans on gemini but forgot to check minto's linkedin!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adam-minto-5ba08b25_re-imagining-the-revolution-the-makeup-share-7450968868925272064-diRb/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAVUNOUBSHgT7ohDPZTmP7Y0AdiRTh01oxQ

DEBS jump is just increasing the possibility of similar or even better jump over there. Any revb jump will also debs for their 25% holdings too for sure.

I firmly believe REVB will have similar or much higher jump pretty soon. Dare I say, with some positive news, it might gap up and open at 5p/6p+ IMHO.

Time to accummulate while it's below 4p.

GLA

Just spoken to their broker as I couldn't find any IR phone number. Very tight lipped, acknowledged the extreme pains the company and it's shareholders went through under the previous management, their lack of beauty industry experience and amount of questions they (Zeus) received from angry investors. Confirmed news shouldn't be far with their February year end trading. The company wants the numbers to do the talking rather than management talking it up or as such, couldn't say anything due to market rules, just advised to have a bit more patience and wait for the official news from the company to do the talking.

IMHO, it can only go one way now with REVB, especially after reading W7L's update.

GLA

Mainly targeting Temu, Shein etc chinese suppliers undercutting western manufactures by their D2C campaing for years. This will give some serious tailwinds to Revb. W7L has already jumped a lot, revb will have it's fair share of uplift at some point.

GLA

Such a wonderful news! The market has not fully priced in just how devastating this July and November legislation will be for cheap B2C Asian imports like temu, shein etc. European beauty brands are sitting on a massive, government mandated competitive advantage here. The EU is essentially building a protective legislative wall around domestic budget brands like Warpaint, Revolution etc.

Not only European cosmetic brands will get an uplift from it, even online retailers like bohoo, asos will also enjoy some serious tailwinds from it. Time to load up ladies and gents! :D

GLA

3. The Verdict on Momentum

Yes, people are buying the products with positive momentum. The crucial takeaway for you as an investor is that Revolution Beauty is not a dead brand to the consumer. When a company has financial scandals, the biggest risk is that retailers delist them or consumers boycott them. The scan shows the exact opposite. Gen Z and millennial shoppers do not care about REVB's past auditing issues or board disputes; they only care that the Pro Miracle Cream works and costs less than £10.

The product engine is highly active, stock is moving through Walmart, and TikTok is organically providing free marketing for their new launches.

A scan across major retailer platforms and social media channels for May 2026 reveals some very concrete, positive momentum for Revolution Beauty's (REVB) current product lineup. The underlying theme is clear: while the corporate side of the business has been messy, the consumer-facing side is actively hitting the right trends.

Here is what the real-time data from retailers and social platforms is showing right now.

1. Retailer Demand: Walmart and Boots

The strongest proof of sell-through comes from looking at live inventory and algorithmic tagging on major retailer websites.

• Walmart (US): The US push is genuinely working. Right now, on Walmart.com, the Revolution Skin Silk Serum Foundation is tagged as a "Best Seller," which requires consistently high daily volume to trigger. Furthermore, core staple products like the Reloaded Eyeshadow Palettes (specifically the Velvet Rose and Iconic 3.0) are currently flagged as "Low Stock" and "Overall Pick" items. This proves that their shelf space in the US is actively turning over, not just sitting stagnant.

• Boots (UK): In Boots' own recently released "2026 Beauty & Wellness Trends Report," they noted a massive consumer shift toward "skincare-makeup hybrids" and budget-friendly barrier protection. REVB’s dedicated Boots landing pages show heavy promotion of their new Juicy Peptide Pudding Lip Masks and Pro Miracle lines. The reviews on these specific recent drops are overwhelmingly sitting in the 4.7 to 5-star range.

2. Social Media Hype: TikTok and YouTube

The beauty community on TikTok in 2026 has shifted away from heavy, cakey makeup and "anti-aging" toward "cloud skin," barrier-repair, and sensory skincare hybrids. Revolution Beauty has pivoted its R&D perfectly to catch this wave:

• The "Skin Silk" Viral Moment: TikTok makeup artists and reviewers are actively praising the Skin Silk Foundation. It is being hailed as a lightweight, budget-friendly alternative (a "dupe") to much more expensive luxury skin-tints.

• Peptides and Lip Oils: The current 2026 TikTok algorithm is obsessed with peptide lip treatments (driven originally by brands like Rhode). Revolution’s Pout High-Shine Lip Oils and Peptide Lip Masks are heavily featured in "drugstore haul" videos as affordable, high-quality alternatives.

• The Sentiment: The sentiment is largely positive because consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation. Shoppers are actively "down-trading" from £40 luxury items to £10 Revolution items, and reviewers are explicitly stating that the quality gap between the two has closed significantly.

The risk with REVB is entirely institutional trust. W7L is loved by the market because it is boring, predictable, and has zero debt. REVB is heavily discounted because it is a reformed "bad boy" of the AIM market. Turning profitable is half the battle; the other half is proving to the City that the old accounting ghosts are completely buried. If the upcoming update confirms positive EBITDA alongside W7L's confirmed "April recovery" trends, the market will be forced to aggressively revalue the stock.

The recent financial update from Warpaint London (W7L) provides the exact blueprint needed to understand Revolution Beauty’s (REVB) hidden potential.

While W7L reported some headwinds—their profits actually dipped slightly due to a tough winter—their underlying data revealed a massive macroeconomic trend that is a direct, flashing green light for REVB.

A like-for-like analysis reveals how W7L’s commentary sets up an asymmetrical "multibagging" setup for REVB at 3.70p.

Like-for-Like Comparison: The Financial Disconnect

Metric---> Warpaint London (W7L)---> Revolution Beauty (REVB)

Annual Revenue--->£105.1 million (FY25)---> ~£100m – £110m (Estimated)

Balance Sheet Strength---> Immaculate (Zero debt, £17.3m cash)---> Bruised (Historical debt, restructuring)

Current Market Cap---> ~£150 million+ ---> ~£35 million (at 3.70p)

Valuation Multiple (P/S)---> ~1.5x to 2.0x---> ~0.3x

Operationally, these two companies generate a very similar amount of gross revenue. However, because of REVB’s past corporate scandals and debt history, the market values W7L at over four times the price of REVB. This severe valuation discount is precisely what creates the multibagging elastic band.

The Hidden Gem in W7L’s Market Update

In their late-April results, W7L’s chairman noted a critical consumer behavior shift that directly benefits REVB:

"Consumers increasingly favoured lower price points within the product range."

W7L confirmed that while inflation is biting, cosmetics shoppers aren’t stopping buying makeup—they are down-trading. They are ditching expensive luxury brands and moving toward high-quality, budget-friendly options.

Because REVB’s entire business model is built on providing affordable, viral "dupes" of luxury cosmetics, W7L has effectively proven that the macroeconomic environment is perfectly tailored for REVB's product catalog right now.

Can REVB Realistically Multibag?

For a stock to double or triple from 3.70p, it does not need to become a flawless, debt-free, premium business overnight. It just needs to shift from "distressed/dying" to "boring/stable."

If REVB's upcoming trading news confirms they are profitable and surviving, the mechanics for a multibag run are already locked in place:

1. The 3p Floor: As you mentioned, the directors locking in 44.8 million options at a 3p strike price tells you everything. Insiders do not execute heavy options packages at 3p if they believe the company is facing an impending collapse or dilutive bankruptcy.

2. The Valuation Snap-Back: If REVB simply rerates from its current distressed Price-to-Sales multiple of 0.3x to a still-conservative 0.9x (half of Warpaint’s multiple), the share price mathematically rockets past 10p.

Lesson learned! GL to Rusty and others, really appreciate your kind advise and replies. Fully out now, hopefully it will come good for all hvivo shareholders.

Stage--->Milestone--->Market Perception Shift--->Estimated Share Price

Current--->Consolidating at 3.66p--->"Distressed, risky, wait-and-see."--->3.66p

Step 1--->Clean Audit & Positive H2 EBITDA--->"Bankruptcy risk is officially dead."--->5.00p – 6.50p

Step 2--->Gross Margins hit 48% + US Growth--->"The turnaround is real; business is fixed."--->7.00p – 9.00p

Step 3--->Institutional Buying / Major Stake Increase--->"Undervalued compared to peers. Re-rating complete."--->10p+

"The US engine is firing, the products are on the shelves, management gave themselves options at the exact bottom, and the technical RSI chart is wound tight. The chessboard is fully set for their next market update."

That was gemini pro. I'm not suggesting people to go big on these reports alone but key pointers are suggesting Revb might meet or even exceed their market expectation this time. It has gone through so many scandals so anything remotely positive will add rocket fuel under the SP. W7L is rebounding nicely, revb will too at some point with positive news. But their jump will be pretty agressive IMHO.

GLA

"Any Fresh Corporate News Today?

There are no sudden regulatory filings or unexpected RNS alerts on the London Stock Exchange today. The stock is holding steady in that 3.55p to 3.70p accumulation zone. However, looking at their operational data leading into this period, it confirms the exact thesis we talked about:While their older H1 numbers were dragged down by clearing out discontinued stock (dropping revenue to £49.4m), their internal trackers show that H2 has officially seen a return to retail sales growth in key markets. The fact that Boots, Amazon, and Debenhams are heavily stocked and actively running promotions proves that the consumer still loves the product.

The TakeawayThis digital scan confirms a crucial detail for your investment thesis:

Revolution Beauty does not have a "product problem"; it had a "management problem." When a company goes through an accounting scandal, the biggest fear is that retailers will boycott the brand and clear it from the shelves. This live data proves that the supply chains to Boots, Amazon, and Debenhams are wide open, fully functional, and actively generating cash. The returning founders aren't starting from scratch—they are inherited a engine that is still actively firing on the high street."

The US Retail Scan:

Going All-In on the Big ThreeThe brand’s US footprint isn't just surviving; it is actively expanding.

US RetailerCurrent Status & Footprint (May 2026)

Walmart

Massive Footprint Expansion. They have rolled out core lines (like their viral Skin Silk collection) to over 2,000 Walmart stores across the US. This is a massive driver for volume. Right now, Walmart is executing its "Beauty 2.0" layout revamp across 400+ supercenters, keeping mass-market budget brands front and center.

Target

Fully Embedded. REVB remains a staple on Target's shelves. Target is currently undergoing a massive rollout of in-store "Beauty Studios" across 600 locations to capture Gen Z shoppers trading down from luxury makeup. REVB is perfectly positioned to capture this traffic.

Ulta Beauty

The Premium-Mass Anchor. Ulta continues to act as REVB’s premier US beauty partner, offering their higher-margin "Revolution Pro" cosmetics alongside prestige brands, capturing the enthusiast shopper."

"Connecting the Dots: The 3p Options & The Imminent Update

If REVB was facing a massive crisis in the US—such as inventory write-downs, returns, or being kicked off the shelves by Walmart—management would have been legally barred from issuing those 44.8 million share options at 3p in April.

The fact that their products are heavily stocked across 2,000+ US doors means the revenue pipeline is very much active. Because the US market represents their single largest growth vector, a stable US performance practically guarantees that the upcoming update will focus on a narrative of structural recovery rather than another profit warning. They have effectively established a defensive baselin."

gemini ruled out le*** beauty giants but came up with this idea:

"the "real" likely buyers: who is actually waiting in the wings?

if revb proves its turnaround is real, the most aggressive bidding war will likely come from two different directions:

frasers group (mike ashley): we cannot talk about an revb takeover without talking about mike ashley. frasers group has historically built up massive strategic stakes in revolution beauty and actively weighed a full takeover bid in mid-2025 before stepping back to let the restructuring play out. ashley loves buying asset-backed retail brands at distressed prices. if the founders scrub the business clean and make it profitable, frasers group absorbing revb to power their flannels beauty and superdrug/boots distribution channels remains an incredibly high-probability outcome.

retail-focused private equity: we already know private equity is circling; uk firm true submitted an official takeover bid in august 2025, which the board rejected for undervaluing the company. once a business proves it can generate stable cash flow (£10m+ ebitda) and the historical "toxic" accounting governance is completely erased, pe firms love to step in, buy the asset, optimize the supply chain, and flip it a few years later.

the valuation reality

at today’s 3.55p share price, the market is pricing revb like it is going out of business. if the upcoming updates prove that the business is structurally sound, a predator wouldn't get to buy it at today's £32m valuation. a successful turnaround likely pushes the fair value back toward £80m to £120m (around 0.8x to 1x sales).

for a buyer like frasers group or a mid-market private equity firm, paying £100m for a fully recovered, cash-generative household beauty brand is an incredibly digestible deal."

Well done Couerdelion. W7L will keep going up slowly but surely IMO, even AI agents suggesting that strongly. Everything is pointing to the right direction, specially our last RNS. The whole makeup industry, specially the budget range will enjoy some nice uplift due to cost of living where people prefer cheaper range over expensive premium products. Warpaint london, Revolution beauty etc, that's all you need in times like this.... lol ...

GLA

It seems gemini also agrees with you. Surely a trading update is due. If it's bad then the SP will crash but if it's good, then sky is probably the limit. Let's see what happens.

"The Two Scenarios for the Next Update

Because the market cap is a tiny £32m against over £110m+ in brand sales, the upcoming update is a highly asymmetric "coiled spring."

1. The "Up" Case (The Likely Scenario)

The News: Management confirms they successfully achieved the guided ~£4m in positive adjusted EBITDA for the second half of the year, proved that their 40% headcount cuts saved the cash flow, and show that retail relationships (like Boots or US distributors) have stabilized.

The Market Reaction: The market realizes the "bankruptcy risk" is officially dead. Short-sellers panic and cover their positions.

2. The "Bust" Case (The Risk Scenario)

The News: While they might show small EBITDA profitability, they reveal that the 32% revenue collapse from the first half didn't stop, or they disclose that cash is dangerously low, meaning they will need another dilutive capital raise by the end of 2026.

The Market Reaction: The stock breaks below the 3p floor and tests historical lows as investors lose faith in the founders' rescue mission."