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I've just been told this:

"You are watching the classic "bulletin board dark arts" in real-time, and your intuition is spot on.

What you just witnessed is a textbook "de-ramping" maneuver. Right as the share price started to break out (crossing that 6.50p/6.70p spread), someone deliberately copy-pasted a scary-sounding excerpt from an obscure US micro-cap filing to spook retail investors. The retail traders panicked, slapped the "Bid" to get out, and killed the momentum."

The SP has lost all the gains it made with iliad's fund raise news. MO bought the chunk of shares around this price too. Fear is extremely high at the moment so everything has been sold out. Investors staying miles away from the company (myself included), only brave few who know the game pretty well. Personally I'm keeping hvo on my watchlist just incase if some contract news lands so will buy back in once confirmed.

GLA

Regrettably I did another text boox pi mistake and sold out to cut my losses, can't take this kind of plunge anymore! I rather pay more and get back in when Iliad is finally confirmed. Without it, the SP will keep going down and down which is pathetic!

GLA.

I was referring to one of rusty’s post.

It also explains why polbeg was flat while hvivo kept going from over 8.50p to this 6.50p! You were right rusty, perhaps Iliad won’t be happening anytime soon. Regretting for not selling over 8p and buying more over 7.50 lol

And they dumped more, not the RNS I wanted to see personally! lol

Hey ho, what else can you do? Bloody Hvivo

Market is just simply worried about upcoming inevitable fund raise in a higher inflationary environment IMHO. As long as it can survive it, future is really bright IMO.

Well, it seems we all agree that Iliad’s agreement (if and when signed) will surely push the SP over 10p, provided it’s worth £15M+ . I have a suspicion Hvivo might surprise the market with more phase 1, 2 contracts soon which the market seems not even considering. Let’s wait and see see…

GLA

You both are right with your predictions. I ran the figures through gemini with the following results:

At 12p, hVIVO would have a market cap of roughly £82m. Given they are guiding for ~£47m revenue in 2025 and returning to growth in 2026, a 12p price tag puts them on a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of about 1.7x.

Why 12p? This was the level the stock consolidated at before the "Trump/RFK" vaccine-skepticism sell-off and the Iran macro-noise. For this camp, hitting 12p is simply "fixing the damage" and returning to a sensible valuation for a profitable, debt-free company.

Management has repeatedly stated a target of £100m revenue by 2028. If they hit that with their target 25% EBITDA margins, they will be generating £25m in profit annually. A company making £25m profit usually doesn't sit at a £47m market cap—it sits closer to £250m–£300m. That implies a share price of 35p to 45p.

The ILiAD Catalyst: The 20p+ crowd believes the Phase III ILiAD contract is the "gatekeeper." Once signed, it doesn't just add £15m to the order book; it proves that hVIVO is the only player capable of handling the world's most critical Phase III trials.

richard crow's blog post, even highly recommended by paul scott: https://open.substack.com/pub/****neyrebel/p/the-weekend-rebel-review-march-21st?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

gla

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Watch the SP bounce if it's true. Any hint on iliad singing from the BIO-Europe Spring conference will push the SP to do another rocket IMO

GLA

True but market always looks forward therefore already priced in a lot IMO. Regardsless, it is what it is. As they say, market can always climb mountains of worries.

GL

HVIVO isn't down because of the Pentagon's budget. It’s down because a few retail investors got scared and sold their shares, and in a thin market, that moves the price. When everyone on the board is saying it's going to zero, it's usually because they've already sold and they want the price to go lower so they can buy back.

The Dream Chasers are tiny biotechs with no money, no revenue, and a hope that their one drug might work. Those will get hit by a war/inflation because they need to borrow money to survive. hVIVO have £14.3m in cash, zero debt, and EBITDA profitable. They aren't chasing a dream, they are a picks and shovels business that charges Big Pharma to run trials. Whether there is a war or not, Big Pharma (Pfizer, etc.) still needs to develop vaccines.

I might regret it in the future but personally I see today's crash as an opportunity to load up while everybody is panicking and SP is staying relatively lower.

GL

RustyJames:

hVIVO is a service provider to global Big Pharma. Pfizer, Merck, and GSK don't stop developing vaccines because of a regional conflict or a trade war. In fact, during global instability, profitable companies with no debt and £14.3m in cash (like HVO) are eventually seen as safe harbors. Today's drop is not company specific, it's an macro issue. Trump only understands the market, nothing else. His rocketing bond price will eventually give him the nudge to stop and will do another TACO. Meanwhile just hope Israel stops escalating the war further, they are not even listeing to the Americans anymore and attacked the Iranian gasfield.

March 23-25: hVIVO is attending BIO-Europe Spring in Lisbon. This is where big contract discussions (like the final ILiAD signatures) often move forward.

April 9-10: This is the big one. The company is expected to release its Final Results.

Last year, they declared the dividend on April 10th.

The market expects them to confirm the £14.3m cash and hopefully announce that the ILiAD Phase III contract is officially signed.

If a buyout happens, it’s most likely coming from Tata (Agratas) or Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). Here is why:

The "Gap Analysis" Smoking Gun: Last year, Agratas (Tata’s battery arm building the massive gigafactory in Somerset) completed a "gap analysis" comparing their lithium-ion lines to Ilika's solid-state process. The result? They found Ilika's tech would cause "minimal disruption" to their existing setup. Companies don't usually do that level of deep-dive into another company's "plumbing" unless they are considering an acquisition or a massive licensing deal.

The "AIM Discount": Compared to US solid-state companies like QuantumScape (valued in the billions), Ilika is "pocket change" for a major OEM. At a £50m–£55m market cap, JLR could buy the entire company for the cost of a few TV ad campaigns.

Today’s News is the Final Box: Big car companies are terrified of battery fires. Today's "bullet-proof" safety validation from the UK Defence Agency is exactly what a board of directors at JLR needs to see to approve a buyout. It moves Ilika from "risky R&D" to "proven safety asset."

“ The reality of today’s news:

Safety Validation: It proved that large-format (10Ah) solid-state cells are significantly safer than small-format (3Ah) conventional cells, even when the large cell has 3x the "fuel" to burn.

Parity+: Ilika has already proven they have reached "Energy Density Parity" (they are as good as or slightly better than the best lithium-ion).”

Buzzthomas

“ Is it 3x the Energy Density? No. If Ilika had 3x the energy density of NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium), they would be at ~800-900 Wh/kg. That would be the greatest invention in the history of mankind. Ilika’s actual target is ~350 Wh/kg (which is about 20-30% better than current tech, not 300%).

Is the 3x Energy claim still "Good News"? Yes. In safety testing (shooting batteries with guns), the more energy a cell has, the more violent the explosion usually is. The "win" here isn't that they packed 3x the power into the same space; it’s that even though the Goliath cell had 3x more "explosive potential" (fuel) than the control cell, it didn't blow up.”

The Fundamental Truth vs. The Price

The news today is structurally massive.

3x Energy Density: This isn't a small tweak; it's a generational leap.

The "Bullet" Proofing: This is the ultimate "Safety Sell" for the automotive industry. It effectively ends the argument that solid-state is "too dangerous" for mass production.

Independent Verification: Having a UK Defence Agency sign off on this is a massive de-risking event.

Wow, fantastic news!!!!

Well done to the company ☺️