Member Info for neon

@TI: Thanks for your kind comments, I appreciate it.

@ThetaDecay

technically correct on the legal rules—but your are probably missing the commercial reality for a company like ILiAD. For a private company like ILiAD, moving from Phase 2 to Phase 3 costs tens of millions of pounds. They don't just have that cash sitting in a drawer; they have to raise it from big venture capital firms or "Big Pharma" partners.

The "Lancet" Stamp: Professional investors rarely sign a £30m+ check based on a company's "internal PowerPoint." They wait for peer review in a journal like The Lancet. It is the "Gold Standard" of proof.

The Funding Gap: This is exactly why the contract took a year. ILiAD had the data, but they needed the credibility of the publication (which finally happened on December 3, 2025) to close their funding round and pay hVIVO.

Jan 2025: LOI signed (but nothing happens).

Dec 3, 2025: The Lancet publishes the BPZE1 results.

Dec 4, 2025: ILiAD officially announces: "We plan to begin Phase 3 trials in 2026."

I've taken this from thepharmacist.co.uk:

"Professor Robert Read, who led the study at the NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, said: 'This is the first time a whooping cough vaccine has been shown to prevent the bacteria from colonising the nose and throat in humans.

‘That could represent a big step forward in stopping the spread of the disease.'

Dr Stephanie Noviello, chief medical officer at ILiAD Biotechnologies, said the results represent a 'major milestone' in global efforts to control whooping cough. The company plans to begin Phase 3 trials in 2026.

Source: https://www.thepharmacist.co.uk/clinical/vaccinations-and-infections/new-nasal-vaccine-could-help-curb-spread-of-whooping-cough-study-suggests/#:~:text='That%20could%20represent%20a%20big,Phase%203%20trials%20in%202026.

This is exactly what bulletin board poster are posting to confuse people.

Emmes Group (VaxTrials): They have been hired to run the Global Field Trials.

hVIVO (HVO): They have been hired to run the Pivotal Human Challenge Trial

The Timing: hVIVO was chosen after Emmes

Look closely at the dates:

June 2024: ILiAD announces the partnership with Emmes.

January 2025: Seven months later, hVIVO announces the Letter of Intent (LOI) for the Phase III Human Challenge trial.

January 2026 (Yesterday): hVIVO explicitly lists the "potential ILiAD Phase III trial" as a key part of their current pipeline

If ILiAD had replaced hVIVO with Emmes, hVIVO wouldn't have signed an LOI seven months later, and they certainly wouldn't be mentioning it in their official Stock Exchange updates this week.

Those who have done their research must know HVIVO's:

The trial is supported by the UK Government.

The results were published in The Lancet 8 weeks ago.

The infrastructure at hVIVO is already built and paid for.

The Emmes deal is an addition, not a replacement.

The market is giving everybody a "confusion discount." Most private investors haven't probably connected these dots yet.

GLA

May be. But it's more like "2025 news" while ignoring the "2026 progress."

Investors rarely hand over £30m+ for a Phase 3 trial until the Phase 2 results are peer-reviewed and published in a top-tier journal. ILiAD achieved this with their Lancet Microbe publication just 8 weeks ago. In the NHS update I posted earlier, ILiAD confirmed they plan to begin Phase 3 trials in 2026. A company that is "struggling for funds" doesn't go on record with the NHS and UK Government stating they are starting a trial within x months.

Regardless I see the current SP is an opportunity for the those who can wait. The "funding uncertainty" is exactly what we are getting a discount for. If the funding was 100% confirmed and the contract signed, the stock would simply rocket in a flash. The current SP on offer is "buying the doubt" IMO.

GL

I'm a newbie here to please excuse my understanding.

1. The Timing of Phase 3: "Next Year"

The article explicitly states:

"ILiAD Biotechnologies, the company developing BPZE1, plans to begin Phase 3 trials next year [meaning 2026]."

Since today is January 30, 2026, "next year" is now. This confirms that the Phase 3 trial isn't some distant dream—it is the primary goal for ILiAD in the coming months.

2. Why the delay? (The "Lancet" Hurdle)

The article mentions that the results were "now published in The Lancet Microbe." * In the world of biotech, you cannot start a Phase 3 trial until your Phase 2 data is peer-reviewed and published in a major journal like The Lancet.

This publication happened at the end of 2025. This explains why the "Letter of Intent" (LOI) signed in January 2025 sat idle for a year. They had to wait for the scientific community to "stamp" the results as successful before the FDA and investors would greenlight the £multi-million Phase 3.

3. The "Ministerial" Signal: Government Support

The article includes a quote from the Public Health Minister, Ashley Dalton.

Having a UK Government Minister praise a specific trial ("This government-supported trial marks a major breakthrough") is a massive deal.

It suggests that when the Phase 3 trial starts at hVIVO's labs, it will have significant political and regulatory "tailwinds." The UK government wants this vaccine to succeed because whooping cough cases in 2024 were the worst in 30 years.

4. Is ILiAD "Playing" HVO?

The article makes it clear that ILiAD is fully committed. Their Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Stephanie Noviello, calls the results a "major milestone" and says they have "a lot of work to do."

This trial (CHAMPION-1) used a "world-first whooping cough controlled human infection model"—which is hVIVO's proprietary technology.

ILiAD cannot do this Phase 3 trial anywhere else. hVIVO owns the "recipe."

Apologies if it has been posted already. Run it through your AI engine : https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/whats-new/press-releases/new-vaccine-offers-fresh-hope-for-controlling-whooping-cough

It's happening this year, no wonder why both CEO and CFO bought loads.....

GLA

What did he say this morning? If he is moving it towards amber green or just green then expect it to move higher either this afternoon or tomorrow. I'm new to hvivo so still researching but at 6.20p, you are buying the "uncertainty" otherwise it would have 10p-12p by now based on their trading update IMO. I still have a lot to learn about this company so please excuse my intrusion.

GLA

Or is it becacuse of this news?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/greenland-trump-nato-denmark-security-defense.html

Anybody?

Is it because of FED’s expected hawkish update due tonight? Will it hold over 40p or dip below that?

Any suggestions guys?

Shorts tried harder but the SP also bounced back hard. They haven't increased any since 22 it seems, sell side is now definitely getting exhausted. The SP deserves a sharp rerate IMO.

GLA

What did Trump say? Anybody heard anything?

Unfortunately you can’t get rid of these parasites easily. And because they are increasingly on the face of sharp rises tells you they must have sniffed something so it’s probably wise to keep some powder dry just in case.

GL

"Paper Loss" Calculation

GLG Partners Short Position: 1.50%

Corrected Shares Shorted: ~1,430,258 shares ($95,350,579 \times 0.015$)

Price Movement Today: Opened at 518.00p and closed at 537.00p, an increase of 19.00p.

MetricCorrected ValueNumber of Shares Shorted~1,430,258

Price Increase Today+19.00p

GLG's Estimated Loss Today~£271,749

Ouuch!!!!

If true, somebody will be spending the whole night tonight just drinking! lolz

Sorry but I've no sympathy for these leechers!

Hmm ...

"1. Defence & Government Success

In the November 2025 Interims, the company confirmed that the "Defence" segment is no longer just a strategic focus but a growing revenue contributor:

Direct Statement: Calnex reported "increasing uptake" across the government and defence sectors.

Specific Product Win: Their NAA (Network and Application Assurance) products (which came from the iTrinegy acquisition) are seeing "success in the US federal space."

Expansion: They have hired a new VP of Sales in North America specifically to target US Federal Tenders.

High-Stakes Use Case: The RNS specifically highlights the need for reliable application performance in "high-stakes military environments" as a key driver for new orders.

2. AI & Data Centre Projects

This is where the most significant "pivot" has occurred. In the November 2025 results, they revealed a major milestone:

The "First Time" Milestone: Cloud computing and data centres became Calnex's largest end market by proportion of orders for the first time in FY25.

AI Infrastructure: They launched the SNE-X, which they explicitly called the "first network emulator specifically tailored for AI infrastructure."

Nvidia/Hyperscale Link: The company confirmed ongoing momentum from "hyperscalers" (the industry term for Meta, Google, Amazon) who are upgrading their network infrastructure to handle AI workloads.

800G/1.6T: They are winning business for 800Gb/s synchronization testing, which is the "backbone" of modern AI GPU clusters.

3. Key Financial Proof Points

If you look at the raw numbers from the recent reports, the "AI and Defence" story is starting to show up in the cash flow:

Revenue Growth: Group revenue grew 9% to £8.0m (H1 FY26 vs H1 FY25), driven largely by these new sectors.

Margins: Gross margins rose to 76% (up from 74%). AI and Defence testing equipment typically command higher margins than standard telecoms gear because the tech is more complex.

Cash Position: Their cash balance grew to £10.3m (up from £8.6m in the previous half), proving that these new projects are generating actual cash, not just "promises."

Summary of the News

The RNS you linked (the 2024 interim) was the "bottoming out" period where they were just starting to mention AI. However, the November 2025 update (released about 60 days ago) is the one that proves the thesis:

Cloud/AI is now their #1 market.

US Defence is a proven growth engine.

The company returned to growth and reduced losses because of these two sectors.

This explains why the 40p level is acting as such a strong floor—the company has successfully replaced its "dying" legacy telecoms revenue with "high-growth" AI and Defence revenue."

How significant is this statement:

"Calnex is no longer "just a telecoms company." Their recent literature shows a deliberate shift toward becoming an AI Infrastructure play. They are focusing on the fact that while Nvidia makes the "engine" (the GPU), Calnex provides the "speedometer and diagnostics" (the testing tools) to make sure the network doesn't overheat or crash."

"VIAVI Partnership (Nov 2025): Calnex recently announced a major deal with VIAVI (who bought Spirent). They are combining Calnex’s timing hardware with VIAVI’s traffic generators to create "Turnkey AI Testbeds." This is a huge validation of Calnex’s tech by a global giant."

I'm new to Calnex so want to understand where the company stands, specially with a bold statement like the one above! If things starts working again then what is stopping VIAVI to buy Calnex since they bought Spirent already?

glg did increase their shorts on 20th like i predicted, now probably ****ting themselves lol

Well done to the company and it’s shareholders holders

It crashed from 512p/515p on the back of trump's greendland threats fearing full scale trade war with EU with the end of nato. Now giving different message from Davos.

Future might get a short squeeze now!

lol

Well done to those holding it. If a few large institutional investors also decided to buy or increase their stake at future (following the Reach news), with the buy back the available shares pool is getting smaller and smaller which might creates the "jumping" effect on the SP, who knows? Short squeeze, I think future holders deserve one soon.

GLA