The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Maybe that is why Gold and prodcers are being kept down ?
good post.Thanks Mr Goldgnome.
You forgot about investing in properties and rental,but only if you have good bouncers.
And the law does not change, preventing rental increases, as happened in the 1930 s in the UK/
where the tenant .if they paid, was secure with their contract, Till Death do us Part.
Maybe off topic a little ,if so sorry. ;-o ,
Interesting analysis on the magnitude of inflation, and the rate of inflation, produced recently. What has had the greatest impact on investment returns, and what would one invest in?
The first key finding derived from the anlaysis is that abnormally low interest rates will always cause a collapse in productivity. When inflation eventually emerges, P/E ratios must shrink due to the resulting fall in the structural growth rate, which will drag corporate earnings lower. The SandP 500 Shiller P/E Index near all time high, and when this has happened it collapses (see black Tuesday, 1929)... about to turn down, fast?
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
If this is true, then monetary policies followed by Europe since 2000 will be the main cause of the collapse in European structural growth rates and Europe will face a depression—not despite low rates, but because of them..vicious cycle? as low rates will lead to low growth, leading to even lower rates... The system will eventually break down, not because growth picks up, but because prices do.
...second key finding is that abnormally low interest rates will always spur higher inflation (unless a deflationary crisis hits the economy). As a result, the central bank will eventually be obliged to raise those rates.
Overall, this finding seems to work from 1938 to 1958, and again from 1982 to 2002... two notable exceptions:
1966-1972: inflation was on the way up, even though real rates were positive. This was likely due to the US government’s “guns and butter” policies...Vietnam war and the Great Society program. An external shock occurred when the US decided to float its currency in 1971, after which inflation really took off...
2009-present: US real interest rates have been negative through the period, until last April there had been no significant rise in inflation...over the last 12 years there have been three massive deflationary shocks: the great financial crisis, the euro crisis and the Covid crisis. These three successive crises kept prices suppressed.
..today situation looks similar to 1975, one year before US bonds began their worst ever bear market.
Now? inflation is accelerating; real rates are negative. The central bank is way behind the curve. Impact: bearish for long-duration assets...ANSWER: avoid losing money: hold cash in a good currency, hedge with gold, WELL POSITIONED GOLD MINING STOCKS and take fixed-income positions only in serious bond markets, if you can find them.
Additonal worries:
1. Productivity in key areas like manufacturing, all time lows,
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm
2. Disruption to work force practices (work from home,--> cafe, bar?), supply lines/ logisitics (etc) ... caused by flow on from government covid managment protocols..they known not what they do.
Happy to have gold exposure in these times, good luck to us all we may need it!
best
the gnome
Absolutely agree with Mr Gnome, although there isn't any chance of Bristow tripping over his ego, it is after all the size of Everest!
After closing in the green, European activity ahead of Thursday's session was flat. Spain added a new record number of daily COVID cases in the previous session, and France reported a near-record number. Data releases and more news on inflation are expected throughout the day.
At 7:26 am CET, the three major European indexes were flat, with slight differences. The DAX was losing 0.02%, and the CAC 40 was down 0.05%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.07%.
The euro lost 0.08% to the dollar to sell for $1.14407 at 7:34 am CET, as the pound sterling stood flat, going for $1.37072 at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Goldgnome - Australia sounds a lot like Canada! Damned if we can get a natural gas pipeline approved in under a decade (if ever.) Interprovincial politics at odds with each other. Good for little carbon tax and emission caps driving away investment. What these geniuses in power fail to appreciate is that there is no alternative to heat one's home (besides burning wood!?) in the winter living through minus 30 degree winters. I'm all for green initiatives except that all the green is on the government revenue side with 60% of a tank of fuel going to all the various taxes. Between the red tape and ill-conceived climate plans I think Egypt and West Africa are looking pretty good for investors.
Thanks Cowichan
I wonder if Mark Bristow sees Australia as risky place to invest, red tape going through the roof, more compliance, native title now moving into a compensation phase (thanks Twiggy Forrest and Fortescue! Rio! BHP!) etc. It will depend on how they see themselves as managing the different types of risk. The risk of CEO's tripping over their extra large ego's is another form of risk for investors.
best
the Gnome
The so-called ‘Arabian Shield’ is the perfect place to explore in the quest to find much-needed minerals and metals, a leading mining businessman has said.
Speaking at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, Mark Bristow, president and CEO of Barrick, called for more investment in the mining industry from governments across the world.
But he warned that investors need to understand that returning to “safe jurisdictions” such as the US and Europe will not provide the supplies needed
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2002771/business-economy
-------------------------------->>>>
Mr Bristow putting shareholders on notice - jurisdictional risk is back on the table.
And as a side note: Mr Bristow is the third highest paid mining executive, according to Bedford’s 2021 survey - C$22.9 million
https://f.hubspotusercontent10.net/hubfs/9023719/Compensation%20Reports/2021_BedfordMiningCompReport_Published_Jan2022.pdf
Mr Tibbles governments seldom try getting involved in the judgments of judictiories.
For fear of being branded Dictadorial.
The Law is above Governments and permanent ,unlike Governments.
That may be part of the reason.
But the Law can at times can'BE AN ASS'
Thank you Mr Bond, lets hope they sort out the SCC, Law 32 and the still outstanding court case soon too!
https://enterprise.press/stories/2022/01/12/this-evening-macro-group-ipo-gets-green-light-from-egx-listing-committee-egypt-to-dig-for-gold-other-minerals-in-new-industrial-mining-cities-62577/
Egypt plans mining cities for extraction of Gold Copper and phosphares incluing refinery.
imo this stock is so cheap at the moment.. topped up several times and happy to hold while enjoying the dividend.. can see this back around £1.40 within 12 months. dyor..
Yes, there is discussion on a total ban on alcohol in Australia. Its a pandemic that has been raging for more than 200 years, and rumoured to have come out via the first ship from the UK? The Serbians are denying they started the rumour
Keep your senses of humour
the gnome
We are all going to catch it eventually. 90% won't be significantly effected, which means 90% of the resources we've thrown at this have been wasted. We should use a bit more intelligence and target our response.
https://gbdeclaration.org/
Major European stocks stood deep in green territory ahead of Wednesday's session, continuing positive sentiment from yesterday's trading in New York prompted by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell noted that the high inflation will likely prolong at least until the middle of this year, adding the Fed could increase its key interest rates even more than planned if inflation risks remain elevated. In Europe, the coronavirus-related concerns seem to have eased despite the spread of the Omicron variant still pushing record COVID-19 numbers across the western bloc.
The DAX gained 0.76%, while the FTSE 100 rose by 0.63% and the CAC 40 expanded by 0.86% at 7:03 am CET.
Both the euro and the pound recorded slight gains against the dollar at 7:15 am CET to sell for 1.13740 and 1.36430, respectively.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / ND
Happy hump y’al
The prices of precious metals advanced on Tuesday, with both gold and silver gaining over 1% as the investors digested notions Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell came out with during his testimony before the United States Senate.
The so-called safe-haven assets were seemingly buoyed by a weaker dollar, as well as Powell's forecast that inflation will remain elevated "well into" 2022.
Gold rose by 1.05% at 2:00 pm ET, selling for $1,819.8 per ounce, while silver jumped 1.33% at the same time, to go for $22.77 per ounce. A minute later, platinum surged 3.3% to $975.21 per ounce, with palladium moving up by 0.34% and selling for $1,921.5.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / BU
…..
This article is marked “2 hours ago” since then gold closed at 9pm at $1823.07
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was prepared to begin raising interest rates to cool down the economy but that he also was optimistic that supply-chain bottlenecks would ease this year to help bring down inflation (we have heard the same language about inflation)
The central bank will use its tools “to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched,” “What we have now is a mismatch between demand and supply. We have very strong demand in areas where supply is constrained,” such as for cars, he said.
The rhetoric about gold and inflation etc is about as good as that about covid. In 2000, gold was about us$450/oz, and now it is about us$1800.
If you want to compare the value of a $450.00 Commodity (get similar numbers if you compare other things) in 2000 there are four choices.
In 2020 the relative:
real price of that commodity is $676.00
real value in consumption of that commodity is $725.00
labor value of that commodity is $778.00 (using the unskilled wage) or $756.00 (using production worker compensation)
income value of that commodity is $785.00
economic share of that commodity is $917.00
https://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/uscompare/relativevalue.php
So us$1800 or us$ 917?
If you look at purchasing power of GBP450, it is about GBP 867
draw your own conclusions, do your own research. There are other ways to do the comparisons, but you should do them. I have close to zero faith in the Fed, or various flavours of politicians (looks like or PM did not know his government was in control of the Australian borders? LOL! the next volley in the tennis tournament [torment] down under!) or economic theories, or people who are paid per the word (social commentators) or per views.
the gnome
Thanks SJ, we live in constant panic in Australia. Thankgoodness we have a break from bushfires, but the covid cirus is playing on the minds of everyone, and especially if you turn the radio and TV on. Latest key stats
Key statistics
>COVID-19 was the 38th leading cause of death (898 deaths)-median age at death was 86 years
>In 2020 there was a decrease in mortality in Australia.
>The five leading causes decreased, with a significant reduction in respiratory diseases.
>Rates from suicide, drug overdoses and car crashes decreased.
>Alcohol-induced death rates increased by 8.3%.
You can read the report, and I do wish some people would read and think for themselves (incl govt)
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release
best
the gnome
The other day it was announced by the media over 150k deaths because of covid- simply untrue when it should have said tested positive etc- the numbers were agin tiny and yet they had to report this as a panic, again… 2 years on why can’t they give us the correct breakdown ? Total disgrace - rant over
It is straight forward- just live with it instead of this mindless panic. It’s a total disgrace that we’re 2 years into a pandemic and even now people are asking of those who are admitted to hospital are because of covid or just tested positive whilst admitted; how many died because of it or because of other morbidities … it’s all a total nonsense just live with it now… Freddie mercury died of aids alas and would have been classed as a pneumonia death under this regime- it’s all totally bonkers
Agree 100% just glad I don’t live in Wales or Scotland being run by those plonkers who just restrict, restrict without foundation
The UK is the closest of any country in the northern hemisphere to exiting the Covid-19 pandemic, an expert has said.
Professor David Heymann, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), suggested in a Chatham House online briefing that the UK was seeing the disease become endemic.
He said: “In general, now, the countries that we know best in the northern hemisphere have varying stages of the pandemic.
“And probably, in the UK, it’s the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic if it isn’t already out of the pandemic and having the disease as endemic as the other four coronaviruses.”
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-uk-closest-country-141949632.html
The Times: A Tanzanian nickel project has become the subject of the first new bet in Africa by BHP, the world’s biggest mining company, in recent years.
Subscription only:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nickel-project-takes-bhp-back-to-africa-xnjf35g66
…………..
*Article only of note in that it proves large miners are positive on Africa
Hi Goldgnome,
I've not followed Sarama Resources very closely in the past but I just had a peak and noticed that Simon Jackson is its chairman.
And it looks like the same Simon Jackson who's the chairman of Predictive Discovery? Which means their new hire Andrew Pardey will no doubt have some insights to share regarding Batie/Burkina Faso.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Centamin ended up selling Batie West to, hmm, let's say, a company lead by Andrew Pardey (Predictive) instead - how would that be for a conflict of interest.
Maybe Centamin's lack of movement with their West Africa asset(s) was just a stall tactic - to get the asset back into the hands of its former CEO all along... now that would be CRAZY... just a thought.
https://www.predictivediscovery.com/board-and-management/
https://saramaresources.com/company/board-of-directors/
With inflation going up globally, I'm surprised PoG isn't a lot higher to at least 2k mark...