We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Barrick has Centamin surrounded:
It's a bit like the Russians amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. - Will they or won't they? - We should soon know if there is a cunning-deceitful-plan in play or not. - Wednesday's results will be interesting and may provide a clue. - Trust is a big issue here. - Frankly, after my own experience with Centamin, I don't trust anybody. - Many are already praising Horgan and I hope their faith is rewarded. - For my part, I'll bide my time and award medals after the battle.
Mizolglit
I hardly think I would suggest the whole Centamin board resign if (like I said in my post) the board need not be aware of Barrick's purpose in having former employees apply for jobs at Sukari in positions of influence/power.
As far as institutional firms being aware - I wouldn't know except to say I do converse with individuals working at several smaller firms out of London and Toronto - they read my LinkedIn posts with interest.
As far as informing Centamin's board - each one has a LinkedIn account and I tag each one at the bottom of the LinkedIn post - so yes, they all see my post. Is that formal or official ? Not really. But it is PUBLIC - and in my opinion FAR better than an email sent to Centamin's IR dept. which does nothing at all.
I notice Conjecture .
You did not anser my questons, did you .
Then to say An aquisition is not inevtable,
SO once again ,what do you suggest, ,
Have a good evening.
I appreciate my theory is primarily conjecture and open to debate.
I suppose if we hadn't experienced the Endeavour bid (was it even a bid?) and Pardey's hasty 'retirement' I'd not be as paranoid as Tornado puts it. But like you Tornado I still believe in the potential of Egypt, of Centamin's concessions and of Sukari. All I want is the promised 'value' creation we've been waiting over a decade to achieve - not for another company to steal it away. Think about it - we long term shareholders are now shouldering the cost of a massive waste clearing project. Nice for Barrick to swoop in midway through and not spend a dime!
To Mizoglit - I don't know if Centamin's board would even need be aware for such a scheme to be pulled off my Barrick/Mr Bristow. Given the aforementioned Kees warning and our boards' apparent indifference just how much attention does the BOD give to running the company?
To Bobliz - Same as what I said to Mizoglit. Mr Horgan need not be aware of Barrick's scheme. I'm sure it is seen as something of a coup when former Barrick employees apply for jobs at Sukari. Their talent would certainly be welcomed by any company - and all the more by little ol' Centamin!
Look - here is what we know for certain - Mr Bristow/Barrick wants (and needs!) to acquire another big tier 1 asset. Now Mr Bristow is publicly on the record calling Sukari just that. Take that news - add it to the four Barrick hires in the last 12 months and what other conclusion can a shareholder come up with?
That is not to say an acquisition is inevitable - only getting more and more likely. But long term Centamin shareholders like me will gain very little (if anything) should Mr Bristow succeed while we are at such a low market cap. That is why I will continue to question Centamin (through social media) and seek to find out if there are plans in place to welcome a Barrick bid with open arms.
Already my LinkedIn post has several Centamin employees engaging - as well as 15 executives
- some from Barrick, Centamin, Barminco, Nordgold and others. One thing I know - it's harder for a blindside to occur when somebody shines a light on a situation well before it happens.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_rgn-magazine-on-twitter-activity-6887841878079864832-A_UA
I feel some people are playing that paranoia card here with what Barrick may do or not do. EMRA, the Egyptian Government, Barrick staff and Centamin are not stupid. The value failure on Centamin was inherited and Kees warned everybody here of the problem way before it became known. I listened to him and sold and may have missed the peak in price, but have always gained on my Centamin investment and avoided the huge drop from 203p to 119p on this share at least. I think the company is on the right track. Centamin is an opportunity to create value and the present team are working on it and if they succeed it looks great on their CV to leave Centamin and go and run Barrick (Eric Bristow will retire in a few years or at least go and run a consultancy). Kees according to Mr Tibbles is more positive on Centamin. That is good enough for me. Centamin at least are giving a vision and a story. Without those the motivation to invest is zero. We have something we can choose to believe in or not. The believers buy shares and those who don't go short.
All the best for the 19th of January. I think we will go up from our closing price. Tony
Hi Cowichan
A very succinct case for a Barrick endeavour to achieve CEY on the cheap. However although external forces apart Hogan is a wealthy man in his own right and unlike Pardey does not need a brown envelope to do the bidding of others. have a look at his C.V history to understand his rejection of pressure to float n a desire to succeed at Toro. My belief is that his driving force is to expand his ego and professional standing in turning round a downside company with mega upside potential. A hero in the making. With such a reputation and ego at stake does he wish to be remeberes as a pawn in Barricks portfolio. I think not. Perhaps wishful thinking but as long as Blackrock and the Institutions also have faith in the upside then he will have their continuing support and where the real power lies. Not with Barrick. The FED may run but they cannot hide against the inflation surge and when rates dont rise against the inflation bubble the explosion (having lived through inflation at 20+%) gets exponentially greater. Servicing Government debt when rates rise by say 2% will be crippling Where will the smart money go. Crypto, I dont think so, and Governments will be swift to own the source or tax the returns +++++ big time.
Just my personal thoughts and how I wish the majority does not transpire as the resulting recession and unemployment will be dire to a lot of ordinary working people.
Kindest regards to you and this wonderful board.
Bob
I wonder if the institutional share hoders are aware Cowichan?
Have you informed them?
Perhaps they dont know.
If you think the whoie Board should resign that may drive the price down even further.
What do you suggest?
A decent bid would be nice
I posted the following* on LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_rgn-magazine-on-twitter-activity-6887841878079864832-A_UA
I'll just add this:
a) the first Barrick hire was Craig Barker* in October 2020 - the SAME month Centamin advised shareholders 'pit wall movement' was detected & production would be impacted. Craig's official role: 'oversee group resources and mine geology.'
b)two months later a mega million dollar Capital Drilling contract to move waste rock was announced.
a + b = CEY market cap collapse
------------------------------------->>>>
* How Barrick Gold Corporation Can (Will?) Takeover Centamin PLC For A 'Steal'
1) Fabricate a 'pit wall' incident that takes down the share price by half
2) Formulate a lengthy & expensive 'fix-it' project to span several years
3) Concurrently 'install' key #Barrick employees in strategic leadership roles at flagship mine #Sukari
4) Talk up the asset as 'world class'
5) Make an offer Centamin's board would 'look foolish' to refuse
Playing a long game is how Bristow makes the big deals. Unfortunately for #Centamin's long term shareholders - they might just get played. #gold #Egypt #mining #M&A
Four Key Hires At Sukari In The Last 12 Months (formerly Barrick employees)
1) Pierre Kanku Mineral Resource Manager ( formerly of Randgold/Barrick from Sept 2011 - March 2021 )
2) Gustav Du Toit Sukari General Manager ( formerly of Randgold/Barrick from June 2016 - November 2021 )
3) Rolly Wasonga Chief Resources Geologist ( formerly of Randgold/Barrick from Feb 2012 - Feb 2021 )
4) Craig Barker** Group Resource Manager ( formerly Barrick )
James Rutherford Martin Horgan Ross Jerrard Sally Eyre Mark Bankes Marna Cloete Catharine Farrow Hennie Faul BNN Bloomberg Financial Conduct Authority Toronto Stock Exchange LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) Ontario Securities Commission MINING.com
https://lnkd.in/gtTmvCKQ
Hard to believe that this case has been going on for 9 years , I bloody remember the share price drop at the time it raised its head. Whatever happened to the final few weeks after a new law had been introduced and a report recommendation was being written by elders/law lords for incorporating the law. This scenario truly reflects the unstable environment of Egypt and why owning 1 mine is precarious to the share price.
We need gold to help this share price out because the CEY PR dept is non existant and mr Horgan may be the right guy but his refusal to buy a significant chunk of shares is baffling
If the healthy dividend wasn’t being paid I would have sacked this share off by now and saved myself tonnes of frustration but as I say to my daughter who is on the promise of a £1k when we hit £2 again , you gotta be a belieber
Please note The opinions expressed in this video are of Andrew Maguire and any guest.
Ep.58 Live from the Vault: Gold and Silver Price Outlook 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua-eP-zz5W0
Gold producer Centamin (CEY) implies a new law in Egypt could result in the dismissal of a legal case questioning its right to operate the Sukari gold mine. Investors understandably like the news, sending the share price up 9.3% to 61.17p. It is very encouraging but this remains a risky stock as the legal matter is not yet concluded and political instability is still a problem.
Centamin has been fighting a court case since October 2012 brought by Hamdy El Fakharany, a lawyer and former member of parliament who has had previous success with similar asset ownership challenges in the property space. He has challenged the Egyptian government over the way in which the original licences were awarded for Sukari. This Q&A from Centamin provides further details on the court case.
Today's announcement highlights a new investment law which restricts third parties from challenging contractual agreements between the Egyptian government and investors. The new law appears to apply to both new and respective legal cases. Effectively that should free Centamin of the legal battles that have weighed heavily on its market valuation.
While the signs look good for Centamin, hence the big share price movement today, the matter has not officially been concluded. Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic.
Stockbroker Numis says: 'While by no means certain this could well squash the legal case and remove the stone around Centamin's neck.' Goldman Sachs comments: 'The overhang on Centamin (regarding the ongoing challenge in relation to the Sukari concession agreement) has been removed. We see today's announcement as a big positive for the stock.'
Westhouse Securities says: 'It is obviously positive news for the company, and reinforces our belief that the company is likely to win its appeal. However, until the challenge is removed we are retaining our 18% discount rate on the stock.'
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains
Good point Spot,
CEY AGM. 2014 Jersey
Dividend Josef El Raghy forecast that it would be 3-4%. which equated to around 1.8 to 2.4p. A
In making the calculation of the divi a sum for the notional profit share with the Egyptian Govt will be taken into account.
After the formal presentation Josef said that it would be sensible to make further advances to the govt before the profit share formally became due.
During the formal presentation:-
Josef expected that there would be 2 years of drilling probably costing up to $20m.
There was $11m of cash in the company on acquisition. After that $250m might be spent on building a mine during say 2016 and 2017.
The Drilling at Sukari Hill from the top of the hill down was expensive and rather hit and miss.
So in future the resource would mainly be increased through sideways drilling of the underground portion.
Future guidance Josef stated that 500,000 oz per annum was not a ceiling and 600,000 to 700,000 oz. were conceivable in 2016, quite a change from the website which states guidance at more conservative figures, so did this mean significant upside potential in the longer term?
Court Case.when Josef stated he thought the new law would be considered by the Constitutional Court and that In the 2 cases that had been considered so far those bringing the cases have 90 days in which to make a referral.
However in the Centamin case he expected the Constitutional Court to consider the matter in 30 to 40 days as there were several major investment announcements were ready to be made and the govt. wanted these announcements to be made as soon as possible.
When asked askedJosef stated Van Eck Associates the 2nd largest shareholder via a passive tracker as is Norges Bank.
Discretionary institutional investment in this company is very low because they won't invest before the cc is resolved and possibly a reason why the market makers and the analysts rate the share price low to attract future potential institutional investors?
Possibly then more apparently irrational share price action is to be expected?
Re profit share allowing for cumulative profits in the account, cumulative cap ex. and exploration cost and future costs profit share is someway off.
See note in the accounts that the company expect profit share to start in the year ended 30th June 2015, although Josef said that this may not happen in that year or even the next.
The analysts didn't query this possibly due to lack of institutional funds interest.
Their consensus of 7.7p earnings for 2015 was just an estimate at that stage.
I've been in this stock now for a very long time and it was always thought that the court case held the share price down but here we are a decade later and no signs of it being resolved due to the archaic Egyptian legal system.
But my question is dose anybody really take any notice of it anymore?
Is it still pulling on the share price?
Surely now that lots of companies are willing to invest billions into mining in Egypt that its now not perceived to be the unstable basket case first thought.
A short article in the WSJ caught my eye. A rare $10 gold coin from 1907, one of the 42 examples known to exist, is expected to sell for between US$500,000 and US$550,000—50,000 times its face value—at an upcoming auction in Las Vegas. A $10 note in 1907 would be now worth $296.60 today. Interesting?
So we have the limited supply concept, just like bitcoin, except there is something of intrinsic value? Limited minted coins have been a round a lng time, and in fact there are many new, limited edition now being offered, some of them very attractive. Art pieces. Have a look ...
https://www.perthmint.com/shop/collector-coins/masterpieces/the-jewelled-horse-2021-10oz-gold-proof-coin/
RRP AUD $279,000.
Key features:
Proof quality 99.99% pure gold
Three-dimensional horse crafted in 18-carat rose gold
Hand set with approximately 2.76cts of fancy intense to vivid pink/purplish pink diamonds
Exquisite golden diamonds totaling 0.01ct
Previous releases Jewelled Tiger, Jewelled Phoenix and Jewelled Dragon coins are sold out
Like to guess what this would be worth in 100 years time?
I am off to put a bet that Djokvic plays in the Australia Open, even though his visa has been cancelled for a second time, in "the publics best interest", LOL. Bit of a strange term, when most of the public in Australia would pay a few $'s or more to go and watch him play.
Most of our covid rules in Australia dont make any sense, and so we have another one, yawn.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-15/rapid-antigen-tests-covid-rules-australia-weariness-governments/100757486
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-13/family-stranded-again-after-border-restrictions/100753978
Absurdity reached new heights in West Australia,
Western Australia has now locked out travellers from every Australian state and territory due to growing concerns about the spread of the Omicron variant!
Latest restrictions meaning that a couple who did not vaccintae would not be able to go to hospitals, aged care facilities and all hospitality venues, including restaurants, cafes, pubs and bars, taverns, nightclubs and where dine-in fast food is available,indoor entertainment venues including play centres, gaming and gambling venues including Crown Perth, theatres, concert halls, museums, cinemas and live music venues, bottle shops, gyms, fitness centres, health studios, amusement parks, community sport and school-based events will also be exempt, no yoga classes and even the zoo!
Real reason? The WA govt has made such a mess of the Health system in times of great prosperity, than they are barely coping without covid! Where did the state taxes go?
They used to call it the Wild West, and Wild and Wooly it still is.
The Lunatics have finally taken over the asylum.
best
the gnome.
Thanjs Mr T,
Many are banking on this happening.
I predict end of 2022 when finally the US futures market will really feel the pinch.
"The #ArabianShield is a very big un-prospected #geological terrain which links to the #NubianShield across the Red Sea," Bristow said. "Centamin's Sukari mine in Egypt is a massive, Tier 1 #gold deposit. This proves that this region is elephant country, and we want to be here.
We’ve recently invested in Egypt & have committed to local leadership."
https://twitter.com/RGNonline/status/1481567680998121472
RGN took part in an exclusive media briefing led by @BarrickGold boss Mark Bristow at
@FutureMineral. In the Q&A session, Bristow talked about Barrick's growth ambitions in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia's opportunity to become a regional #mining leader
$ABX $GOLD #FMF2022
---------------------------------------->>>>
Any doubts Bristow isn't in the region to visit Sukari?
Also, I wonder what "we've committed to local leadership" in Egypt means.
IMO those 4 former Barrick employees now working at Sukari speak volumes...
Ep.58 Gold and Silver Price Outlook 2022
Andrew Maguire shares his gold and silver price trajectory projection for the year ahead and explores the bullish momentum, triggered by the Basel III implementation that is now carrying through the market.
The precious metals expert drills down the evidence of a tightening physical supply and analyses the liquidity providers’ behavior, in anticipation of the explosive changes that are looming on the financial horizon.
00:00 Start
01:55 A summary of the past few weeks in gold
08:20 Where is the selling coming from?
11:11 What to expect in the gold market now?
15:05 Basel III now goes fully into effect!
17:15 Could March 2020-style EFP blow-up be repeated?
25:05 Changes to CME performance bonds requirement
28:55 An exciting update for Silver Stackers
31:00 EFP and the Refinery supply issues
Please note The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest
Red to blue so far today.. sp slowly but surely creeping up since the broker buy recommendations at 88/9p area.
Pog + $31 this week. Test and break of 1830 resistance hopefully next week. Currently $1823
Politicians will always side with the populous for obvious reasons GN.
Thanks Mr B.
I have invested in properties, and made a reasonable return, but never as an invesment - a lifestyle for my wife and myself and family? I also have provided homes for our many childen, but this is part of the giving back campaign, as I now know I can take very little into the next world.
I think property investment is a hardish game, that now is harder with "rent forgiveness" as being the newest political innovation (apart from deporting Djokovic, more later). Controlling timing is hard, and I dont like this concept. Lots of fees, and unknowns appear on your doorstep.
I like liquidity. A sadder statement is, that itieasier now to make a living out of financial trading this and that on line. Work from home or anywhere. Work when you want. No HR department, easy to keep the books. Its attracting the brighter minds, work on your termers as they now explain themselves, and I would be with them. Why do the grind stone routine, 9-5, work for someone else for peanuts, HR departments, dry team meetings, doing not what you like necessarily, nor when you like it nor where you like it. I like the new world, and appreciate it will look nothing like the world that I grew up in. Cest la Vie !
Yes our marvellous breath-taking politcians have decided to deport Djokovic, using all of the extravagant intellect and qualifications they are endowed with and that are nauseatingly on display 24/7. Another step down in my opinion. They serve not the people who elect them, but I cannot complain as I have not bothered to encourage them by voting.
The cricket is getting more exciting, and I do hope you people int he UK watched the first 10 overs of day
(continued) So are there any reasons gold should now emerge from its funk?
The behavior of the US dollar. In recent days, the US dollar has started to roll over, with Wednesday’s release of December’s US CPI print appearing to have added to the US dollar’s decline. Beyond the US CPI number, US growth stocks are no longer outperforming. This is a problem for the US dollar. The US runs massive twin deficits. For the US dollar to be strong, US capital markets must consistently attract large inflows of foreign capital. When US growth stocks were outperforming, it was easy for the US to attract large sums of foreign money. But if US stocks are no longer perceived to be “special” and worth large valuation premiums, then to attract capital, the US economy will have to do what other economies do: attract money through a deeply undervalued exchange rate.
Chinese policies. In 2021, China was an anomaly in that local policymakers sat firmly on their hands. When they didn’t, it wasn’t to provide help to a Covid-infected economy, but to gun down industries—education, internet platforms—that had got into the leadership’s crosshairs. This is now changing. In 2022, Chinese policy is likely to be more supportive of growth and markets. This should be good news for the broader emerging market space. And as we’ve seen, good news for emerging markets tends to be good news for gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.
In short, as 2022 gets under way, a number of trends appear to be unfolding:
US dollar weakness;
US growth stock underperformance;
Emerging market outperformance (see Playing Emerging Markets In 2022);
Easier Chinese policies;
A US Federal Reserve that remains well behind the curve.
Each of these trends by itself would be favorable for gold. Together, they could make for a potent combination. This may help to explain why for the first time since the spring of 2021, gold is trading above its 200-day moving average, while the slope of the 200-day moving average is once again positive.
Looks to me like reality is appearing at last, as the Fed has played itself intoa corner of self realisation of its head in the sand policies, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Just when Ray Dalio is predicting civil unrest in the US (yes, he has been doing this for a while, jus out on the timing by a year or 2, but watch)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maneetahuja/2021/11/29/ray-dalio-says-americas-decline-will-upend-lives-not-just-portfolios-the-billionaire-investor-paints-a-dire-scenario-in-his-new-book/?sh=170306203c4f
Good luck.
Spare a thought for gold bugs, like me. Go back a year to the beginning of 2021, and the gold bugs’ reasoning was clear. Inflation was coming. With all the money-printing and fiscal stimulus across the rich world, inflation would breeze past the 2% rate the consensus was expecting at the time. From there, it would be just a short skip and a jump to higher gold prices.
As we now know, inflation did indeed breeze past 2%. But the skip and a jump to higher gold prices never happened. Gold bugs were left with the depressing spectacle of rapidly rising inflation eating into the real value of their gold holdings. To add insult to injury, gold prices actually fell. Through the second half of the year, as OECD inflation kept powering higher, gold repeatedly ran into resistance at US$1,830/oz, to end the year down -3.6%.
what went wrong? The most obvious explanation is that gold’s relationship to inflation is hardly one-to-one. Sure, over the very long term gold is an inflation hedge. But this doesn’t mean the relationship holds true over every quarter, or even over every year. Instead, as Gavekal has long maintained, investors should look at gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.
Nowadays, most of the world’s demand for physical gold comes from India, China, the Middle East and Russia. Over time, this demand for physical gold can create powerful self-reinforcing feedback loops, either to the upside or to the downside.
For example, a strong US dollar leads to tighter financing conditions across the emerging markets, and so to weaker growth. In turn, weaker growth leads to weaker demand for physical gold among poor emerging market consumers. Sometimes, liquidity conditions can even get so tight that rich Indians, Chinese or Russians are forced to cash in some of their gold holdings for US dollars. This pushes the price of gold down and leads to an even stronger US dollar. Wash, rinse, repeat.
In the upside feedback loop, strong growth in the emerging markets leads to higher disposable incomes in the local economies. Local savers put some of their money into gold, which rises in price. As the price of gold goes up, more savers part with more of their US dollars to buy gold, and the US dollar falls. In turn, the weakness of the US dollar leads to easier financing conditions for emerging market economies, which leads to stronger growth. Again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Between 2002 and 2011, the world experienced the second kind of feedback loop: emerging markets boomed and gold prices went through the roof. Since then however, emerging markets have struggled and returns on gold have been dismal, in spite of negative real interest rates and accelerating OECD inflation.
So are there any reasons gold should now emerge from its funk?
(to be continued)
European stocks were lower in premarket trading on Friday as investors awaited an array of economic data, including trade balance figures from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom.
The FTSE 100 fell 0.56%, the DAX slid 0.78% and the CAC 40 dropped 0.87%.
The euro added 0.23% against the dollar to sell for 1.14781 at 7:09 am CET and the pound rose 0.22% compared to the greenback to go for 1.37338 at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / NP
Have a good weekend y’al
Maybe that is why Gold and prodcers are being kept down ?