Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Excuse my ignorance but, given how long it has been happening, why are there still individuals/institutions who are still happy to drive the price of gold up prior to the Americans selling paper gold at 2.30ish (UK afternoon)? I REALLY don’t get it! Probably the same reason I keep holding CEY, SHG and FRES…guess I’ve answered my own question…so perhaps I do (whilst admitting I’m dumb). Thanks for listening.
Taken a few here on the basis the stock is materially oversold, the RSI is the lowest it has been since Q3 2021 - it has fallen from 81 in early January to 28 today.
Time will tell.
My today point to ponder ;- Sadly I find a high persentage of nonsensical bla bla on chat rooms posted the last few years. Factual , relevant ,up to date info of the stock cey is absent in many posts. Hopefully Quality posters who DYOR may come to the fore in time . It's NOT an art to Criticize , the art is the oposite to criticize atm. with a balanced view..... will greatly assist . ;-)).
As always ,
Happy Trading and DYOR
Buck
pipedreamer it's only what I think but I reckon another spell in the 90s is likely, particularly after Q1 results on April 20. If that does happen I will be loading up as I think Q2 & 3 will be much better, just like last year.
Alasdair Macleod sits down with Andrew Maguire to investigate Russia’s plans to devise a gold and commodity-based replacement for dollars as a new trade settlement currency.
The famed economist prognosticates the return of sound money as the ingredient for a new, Asia-wide industrial revolution, while the western financial system continues to decay in line with the accelerating debasement of fiat currencies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0wsJ3tyaSk&t=26s
Fair comments, oil companies using Ukraine as excuse to exploit customers and central bank trading cartels using Russian sanctions as excuse to manipulate and suppress POG!
After over a decade of broken promises missed guidance and bullshi(it presentations I have become cynicle to say the least!
Hope you are right 3 Bear!
Tibbs!
"This stock now is an established unpredictable and unreliable stinker and at present as you rightly point out has become ideal for trading!"
I think the current management are doing a fantastic job. They sensibly budgeted 60c for diesel but it was 90c because of Ukraine, costing an extra $60million. Yet they still brought the AISC in under 1400 for the year, within guidance.
What we are seeing now IMO is a prolonged reaction to the FY results and the sobering realisation that heavy investment will continue at Sukari for the foreseeable.
This is not dead money, even the waste stripping is an investment that will improve access in the pit and result in consistently higher production.
I believe the fundamental benefit of all this investment will really start to show from the Q2 results onward. So in short it's hurry up and wait, there'll be jam tomorrow. Promise.
Here or at 90p
Steve,
Th e mistake I made in the past was to give the benefit of the doubt and trust in the in the integrity and professionalism of the management by believing they were telling the truth, they weren't!, they knew what they were up to and they had the advantage of knowing when to get out , this sis why Josef decided to fill his saddle bags ride off and take a back seat and why Youseef sold his shares to invest in real estate, something I pointed out at the time to Centamin, although all they admitted was iYoussef's actions didn't give a good impression!
This stock now is an established unpredictable and unreliable stinker and at present as you rightly point out has become ideal for trading!
Where are the results on these new Egyptian concessions, are they even worth mining, who knows despite all the work including helicopter surveying done this far?
I doubt any company in their right mind would bid for this now, Due Diligence might well be a stumbling block, again!, but if they did and the share price attracts a decent premium all the better!
Hi Sotolo,
Re - "Personally one of the great attractions of Cey under the previous management is they didn’t plough lots of profit back into the ground but gave it to us even if the collapse may have been a bit of a result" ??
Unfortunately the last management wasted millions upon millions drilling holes in West African projects on pie in the sky projects that were poorly managed that could have been better spent, for instance running Sukari properly!
What ever heppene tio the Cleopatra slope
Sotolo- CEY is a great trading stock. For me, there are lower risk, better performing stocks available for dividend strategies and mining stocks too risky for dividend reliance for me, but each to their own. Dividends can be axed anytime, and then you're stuck with a low capital pot in this case. The mining stocks have a big risk of negative high impact news (those holding have had quite a few nasty "07:00 RNS wake up calls" over the years.). 50% profit loss is way more than any benefits gleaned back eg corporation tax, and remains a a great deal for Egypt. Comparing other miners depends on which ones you pick. As a trading stock, however, it's highly volatile and no stamp duty, and has core drivers, gold and stock markets which in turn are driven by economic factors moved on daily data so good. If you bought in 10 years ago for example you would have been OK (although poor compared to the s and p 500, property, many others stocks and other lower risk investments). If you cherry pick other timeframes for example… 13 years ago bad, 2.5 years dire... so depends which timeframe you pick- as this share is so volatile. Also, as a UK tax payer, I get whacked with tax on any dividends I receive too, unless in SIPP of ISA of course...
I sort of agree with the last bit ---------but I hope we do start to get bigger dividends again fairly soon. Without dividends then shares are just a pyramid scheme arent they? I've said before that i bought some shares near the peak and even with the divis am well out of pocket with those. Overall my average is around £1.10 --£1.12.
I wouldnt be bothered for a couple of years if the price stayed around that mark if we got decent divis-------which i would re invest. However at some point I would like to start taking cash from the divis.
So ---I guess I would like the price of gold to go up and costs to come down. Then we need one of those bonanza grades to get things going.
So when do you think we will hit the £3 a share you once predicted? (just teasing)
People here make so much fuss about us losing half our profit to Emra but miners in countries from Chile to Peru pay near 50% tax, and these are rising so not much different and no threats of rises for us. Be pleased with the half we do make, and pleased with the fantastic dividends till more recently, if disappointed that under Horgan profits lower, though hoping he has front loaded this as many new CEO’s do. Also his policy is to pay less profit as dividend and with this lower we will no longer be a high dividend company unless our share price falls or gold rises. Personally one of the great attractions of Cey under the previous management is they didn’t plough lots of profit back into the ground but gave it to us even if the collapse may have been a bit of a result, we were getting the entire cost of the shares back in under a decade. With the dangers of mining this gives a comfort
European markets traded lower on Friday's premarket amid the release of new earnings reports and ahead of the publication of more economic data. Today, market participants await for UK GDP, trade balance, and industrial production figures to be released before the open.
The DAX lost 0.74% at 7:23 am CET, while the CAC 40 fell 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 declined 0.32%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 inched down 0.68%.
The euro was down by 0.07% against the dollar at 7:25 am CET, selling for $1.07267, and the pound lost 0.10% to go for $1.21071 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
Newmont/Newcrest action will certainly be repeated. Only question who the parties are, and who the winner is in each transaction...
Newmont’s mature portfolio of assets is not entirely devoid of growth options.
But modelling published this week by BMO Capital Markets’ Toronto-based analyst, Jackie Przybylowski, put the growth challenge in stark contrast; Newmont’s production of gold and copper was due to peak at around 7 million “gold equivalent” ounces in 2024 or 2025 and then decline reasonably steeply.
The growth options within Newmont’s portfolio have proven harder to develop than expected.
The best example is in Peru, where the Yanacocha mine has finished digging up all the gold bearing “oxide” ore that inspired its development, leaving Newmont to ponder whether to spend $2 billion retrofitting the processing plant to harvest the remaining, copper-rich “sulfide” ores at the site.
The geological switch has proved difficult and Newmont delayed the project for more studies in September.
They also had their eoxide expansion crimped bysocial license issues
Bank of America’s Lawson Winder reckons deferral of the Yanacocha sulfides project might have been the final straw that convinced Newmont to move on Newcrest.
“Uncertainty around the timeline to develop the Yanacocha Sulphides, and the gap that an extended delay would leave in the [Newmont] gold production profile, likely serves as part of the motivation for this more transformative M&A,” he said.
Negative cash flow
On Przybylowski’s modelling, acquisition of Newcrest would boost Newmont’s production in 2025 by 30 to 40 per cent to about 10 million ounces; thanks largely to existing Newcrest mines like Cadia in NSW and Lihir in Papua New Guinea.
It would be 2034 before the combined group’s production falls back to the 7 million ounces mark that shaped as Newmont’s peak production under a stand-alone scenario.
Newcrest meanwhile is arguably filled with too many growth options for its own good.
If Canada’s Red Chris, Western Australia’s Havieron, Ecuador’s SolGold and PNG’s Wafi-Golpu were to all proceed to plan, their development would be almost simultaneous, putting a big strain on Newcrest’s cash flows.
Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan estimates Newcrest would need to spend $US8.5 billion building its growth projects over the next five years and the big spend would leave the company with negative cashflow in the 2024 and 2025 financial years.
Just a reminder of the existing Sukari agreement-
Centamin Profit Share with Egyptian Government Explanation from Centamin I.R.
First Posted 15.07.2014
Then Reposted 29/06/2016
The profit share will be what the profit share will be – the joint venture partner, ie the government, sits in the 50% owned subsidiary Sukari Gold Mines.
The management board of this subsidiary has representatives of the government and an equal number from Centamin.
All of the investment into the Sukari mine is audited, with Sukari Gold Mines very much being a part of this process.
Similarly, all gold sales go through Sukari Gold Mines, where the operating surplus will be divided 50/50 between the government and Centamin, once the original capital has been repaid back to Centamin and its shareholders.
The 3% royalty has been paid to the Egyptian Treasury ever since production started (this also goes through SGM).
With the above in mind, there is no issue with regards to the money that has been ploughed into Sukari, particularly the costs of Stage 4 (c.$350m) – this needs to be recouped before any of this operating surplus can be shared.
This is not due to kick in until later this year, or possibly in Q1/Q2 next year. It is all a function of the ramp up in production and the gold price.
There is no dispute between Centamin, the Egyptian government and/or EMRA, nor the 50/50 Sukari Gold Mines subsidiary.
What you are getting is probably a series of people mouthing off that they want profit share now.
This is a political game more than anything, as the deal is the deal (in fact Centamin have advanced the country a few million dollars as a demonstration of their faith in this deal – this will also be recouped out of future operating surpluses due to the government).
What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow.
In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%.
To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay all beyond the above and the royalty, which on a blended rate compares reasonably well with other 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).
My previous question to you was, has Horgan lied or deceived.
Your response.
So far as I am aware he hasnt -
Was your answer,just in case others missed it.
Read into it other investors and think .
Good night Mr Tibbles ,and of course everyone.
Do not have 50. 50 , profit share.
In case some have forgotten.
Quite so Steve, The biggest irony is Centamin that A lawyer, Hamdy Fakharany, who filed the case against Centamin claimed the returns to the government were not high enough!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2012/oct/30/centamin-share-suspension-gold-egypt
Yet no one else would have wanted the mine on the present profit share and EMRA certainly wouldn't have been able to operate it on a commercially viable basis, it becomes ever more apparent why the previous management were high grading and not clearing waste for so long it was the only way to make profits quickly!
Now the chickens have come home to roost and this is why the share price is on its ar(se, take over or merger my ar(se, on the present profit share terms it's just in their dreams!"
Tier one mine indeed, it's enough to reduce a shareholder to tears!
Egypt: How Sisi is running a pyramid scheme!
gypt’s national debt has quadrupled to $370bn since 2010, but key structural issues, such as the devastated public education sector and low-quality public health system have yet to be addressed. Egypt’s labour force participation rate has decreased to 42 percent, far below the low- and middle-income country average of 58 percent.
This is not surprising, given how the private sector has been suffocating under the constraints and opacity imposed by the military, which owns most of the economy and is forcefully purchasing privately owned enterprises.
Yet instead of making the most of this windfall to transform Egypt’s economy into a value-creating engine that draws foreign investment, Sisi’s regime has wasted billions on mega-projects mired in corruption, with no clear economic or even political outcome in terms of development.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-sisi-running-pyramid-scheme
It's already been said, but the biggest problem I see with buying CEY, even if I could reduce the cost via economies of scale etc- why would I buy, when I have to give half my profits away, when mining is so risky, and the environment so volatile?
Record inflation in Egypt as below won't help...
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-headline-inflation-increased-258-january-capmas-2023-02-09/
However, past month: Gold down, CEY down ~15%, FRES down ~13%, Hochs down ~17% (all UK listed- UK indices have been increasing). Newmont down ~8%, Barrick down ~5%.
The key common driver here is that despite Jerome seeing inflation "top and drop", his hawkish tones and actions remain... for now...
I agree though, Mr T- this share is frustrating as when it falls, it falls, and intraday seems to fall when gold falls, then only stabilise when gold rises, but then falls again... so if intraday gold end to end is flat, CEY falls...
The last time CEY was at this price, ~103, gold was @~1740(yep, about 140 less than now)- this why I always debunk the "if gold is "x", and CEY mine "y oz", based on the costs of "n" the SP will be "z"---- things just NEVER work this way.
MasterRSi just interested, what is your chart indicating now?
The IMF announced an ambitious reform programme for Egypt’s economy, but analysts cast doubt on its effectiveness.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/18/as-economic-crisis-deepens-will-egypt-slow-megaprojects-down
Strangely enough there is an article in Enterprise Egypt , El Sissi the President is putting more Miltary ASukarisset up for privatiseation.
That no doubt includes Shalateem mining .
With concessions adjacent and to the north of Sukari.As well as the Phosphate mine on the Sudan Border.
A couple of interesting articles in the Economist last week about the state of the Egyptian economy, how it’s pound has performed so badly and how the Army has their fingers in all pieces of the pie stifling private enterprise. I don’t know how much this affects CEY or how negative it is with regard a takeover. It didn’t make very good reading.