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and you talk about me aggravating you? Why do I need to quantify my posts - are you the LSE monitor? Nonetheless I mention Endeavour because they had been interested in purchasing Centamin and Mr Montessus is calling for additional M&A activity during the African Mining Indaba on now. And since La Mancha is still a large shareholder perhaps they will take another run at Centamin - they were obviously not put off by the EMRA's involvement for their first attempt so little worry that would be an issue now. Yours truly, Q
The USD was oversold on the weekly chart going back a week ago. I believe since 2000, the USD weekly oversold has been hit 6 times and was recorded and analysed by Chartguys last week. They gave a probable forecast to have a big drop from 1960 and the day after the gold price drop occurred. The issue is not so much about gold, but the strength of USD. Tonight the dollar index has recovered to an RSI of 42.8 and Stochastics back up to 60.7%, but MACD is still negative on the weekly time scale. It will take either two or three more weeks for USD to top out again and move back down. When it does gold will move back up and rally. The bottom on gold can be anywhere between 1820- to 1860 per ounce in this current retreat.
Centamin is having a low production month so is more sensitive to the gold price this quarter. If we take 1960 gold as a marker for 123p CEY share price and 105p as being 1880 gold price as atheoretical example. This suggests every $4.4 drop in gold is 1p off Centamin share price. The 1820 low would be 92p and 1860 low is 100.5p for CEY if consistent to the drop so far.
The good news is that we have every chance of seeing CEY have a go at 125-127p again in April which is likely the last FED rate hike as they bake in the mother of all recessions later on. Tony
Or maybe you posted on the wrong BB.
What has got do do with Centamin, sir, a diversion mabe ?
Morgan Carroll - Executive VP Corporate Finance/General Counsel sells $ 2,200,000 or 69% of his holdings
That in addition to CEO Sébastien de Montessus selling $ 4,066,500 on 11 November 2022
Not a good look - especially as rumors circulate that it was Russia's Wagner Group mercenaries that carried out the execution style killings in Burkina Faso during a convoy transport en route to an Endeavour mine.
Mr Montessus commented on the involvement of Wagner inside Burkina Faso on the sidelines of the African Mining Indaba, saying "For the current president of Burkina Faso, that is today not part of the plan."
So then, who hired the security?
What about an answer to your trust and faith as I asked earlier ,that you did not answer.
So sorry to remind you.
Has Horgan lied or deceived,Mr Tibbles ?
Please tell us.
Mt Bond,
I can understand there are unexpected occurrences in mining and that there are unforeseeable difficulties and if an honest explanation is given then I was prepared to give the benefit of the doubt.
However what I will not tolerate or forgive is lying or deception!
Hi Paul,
I really don't care a jot about about what Sami or the family did, they did it for themselves and they have been more than handsomely rewarded, after the events of recent years it seems at the ordinary shareholders expense! Frankly it may have been better if Sami had never got permission to start the mine and that it was still a pile of stones on the sand!But we are now slowly emerging from submerged under a six year pile crap and several questions where asked by new holders including the reasons for the share price languishing where it is , I gave the reasons, they ned to know so that they didn't get hood winked like we did in the past.It's proof in the pudding we need now, not more of the undelivered promises for over a decade about this wonderful tier one resource , unfortunately the last lot of carpetbaggers rendered it nearly unworkable and buried under pile of crap which we are having to clear up!Out of interest what happened to those "Bonanza" grades in the underground pit that were going to be be used to supplement lower grades?Seems to have gone quiet? Anyway when I see some god reason to applaud and praise the management I will be delighted to do so.Keep WellTibbs
I totally get why you are upset Mr T , but I think you dont need to bang on about it so much. I dont think it does much for confidence. Also pasting up old things about the court case or whatever could be confusing as someone might think it is current and not historic.
A couple of thoughts about the wall and maybe try to look at a few postives, moving forward?
It really does look (to me) like the last lot, really went after the high grade stuff and then when the situation was Iffy, did one. Thes could have not gone after quite so much gold and cleared some waste away and carried on for another few years before the stuff hit the fan.
When you think about it, the high grading didnt really benefit Egypt/ Erma as things have had to slow down to try to rectify the mess.
Im guessing Martin Horgan was aware of the situation when he took over and it looks like he is trying to do things properly and also he intends to stay for a good while. Could he have carried on high grading for a couple of years and then got out, leaving the problem for someone else?
Regarding a take over? I think that the situation in Egypt, with the speed of legal matters, plus any profit share agreement would put most people off.
With the new licensing, I could see a small company hoping to get some gold out of the ground quick and then do one if a take over offer came in.
SOOO ---the positives? It looks like Martin Horgan is in it for the long haul (pardon the pun) and with the waste clearing is doing more than he has too, so he can get a full swing at things in the not too distant future. The situation with legal and Erma is likely to stop any takeovers.
Hopefully gold will rise and the powers that be wont be able to blag their way out off the situation by creating more money from thin air.
I think you once joked about the worth of physical gold and that it would only be worth the same amount of physical gold.?
We know there are notes for many times more gold than physically exists, so what happens if there is a demand for gold? What do you back it with?
Im getting old. I could do with Centamin getting their act together and gold rising as well------before I shuffle off my mortal coil.
Is your , ( trust and faith) ,totally shot, Mr Tibbles?
Just asking ,out of curiosity.
There we go share price down again despite the POG!
Trust or faith in the company seems completely shot!
Total non farm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job
growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and
business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially
reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/business/economy/labor-participation-covid.html
Apparently 103,000 of the new jobs created were striking academics at Universities returning to work.
I wonder how many other strikes came to an end that are reclassified as new jobs. I doubt when people go on strike that it does not count as a job lost. Did you here Powell say earlier this week that his data is high quality. Gold moved higher after that comment which demonstrated Powell was giving more practice of outright lying to TV cameras.
Of course Steve, but Barrick is keen on Egypt as Cowichan just reiterated, Centamin is still good value and if Horgan is to be believed the mine heading back to tier 1, however I was just positing that the Emra might be one of the impediments? Unlike Tibbs I have done well out of takeovers, as always take the money rather than stay in, that usually seems to destroy value as he says, and if that is 50 or 60% above share price before I much appreciate it. But of course as Cowichan again points out, one of the great assets of this board is the cornucopia of views
Hi Cowichan,
No denying Centamin is on its a(rse due to the deliberate and ongoing, although denied mismanagement by the previous BOD, Pardey, Youssef and the El Raghy family shareholders.
The market cap of the company is halved, the share price is decimated and the depleted dividend appears a very likely candidate for a haircut, unless they intend to subsidise it by borrowing!
With interest rates rising the Centamin dividend looks to be less and less attractive and yet shareholders are told to be patient, the good times are coming , the previous management has run off with saddle bags full, long live the new management!
Thank you Cowichan!
I really cant recall any benefit or advantage to me as a shareholder in the past when any company I have held was bought out, or went in partnership as a junior member, quite the contrary. there was of course usually a bit of a rise or spike in share price that more often or not faded away if things didn't progress fast enough and if the merger/take over went ahead all the DOD did well or very well whilst the shareholders of the subordinate/acquired company got shafted , especially so with anything concerning" Barrick" as Bristow screws everyone, shareholders, workers, the local community and he goes shooting wild animals, awful man!
In this takeover I suppose it was an awful company being taken over by another but much bigger awful company!
https://www.raid-uk.org/blog/acacia-mining-faces-new-human-rights-problems-tanzania
Acacia which was locked out of negotiations, insists its board must approve any agreement reached between the government and Barrick, and has opened a trade dispute arbitration at the international court.
The said agreement is meant to end a $190bn tax dispute with Tanzania and allow resumption of normal business, including export of withheld gold concentrate worth millions of dollars.
Yesterday, the writing was on the wall for Acacia as the government declared the company was “unwanted in Tanzania.” It demanded that Barrick sorts out the stand-off if it wanted the deal.
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2019/Further-Update-Concerning-Acacia-Mining-plc-Acacia/default.aspx
https://www.mining.com/barrick-takes-acacia-mining-back-as-buyout-deal-sealed/
Thank you Cowichan,
Well prior to Tim Donnelly Sukari didn't really have a general manager,, if you recall it was a former Egyptian police captain, now what was his name, El Raghy?
Wonder why he was appointed?
Lovely opening on the share price up to 108.10p. but had to go back to yesterday's closing spread and start again on the way up.
Gold price on the rise - XAU/USD $1,885.30 +11.49 +0.61%, which will further help on the UPtrend.
Come on Sotolo- you know any company take-over is way, way, way more complex than that- many more levers.
European stock indexes were higher in premarket trading on Wednesday as traders seemed to positively react to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's expectations of "significant progress" on inflation this year. European energy giant TotalEnergies will soon post its latest financial results. With the data calendar cleared for today, investors will await tomorrow's CPI results from Germany and the European Union economic growth forecast, as well as the EU leaders summit that will be kicking off in Brussels.
The DAX jumped 0.52% and the CAC 40 added 0.86% at 8:00 am CET. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.95%, while the FTSE 100 traded flat concurrently.
The euro traded flat against the dollar to go for 1.07302 at 7:28 am CET and the pound gained 0.07% compared to the American currency to sell for 1.20475 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / M
Happy hump y’al
Thanks as ever Cowichan Spoonington etc, you are right that the variety of views and lively debate has been stimulating. Viz a potential takeover, if Barrick wanted Cey why are they waiting while the company becomes steadily more expensive? Could the Emra half stake be off putting and could it be ongoing negotiations with them?
Tim Donnelly https://www.linkedin.com/in/timdonnelly69/
Apparently he now works for Artemis Gold - see page 4 here:
https://www.artemisgoldinc.com/news/media-releases/artemis-gold-announces-senior-management-changes
If so it would seem Centamin's previous COO Jeremy Langford (who left with the arrival of Mr Horgan in April 2020) would have recruited Mr Donnelly in the last several weeks (or days!)
For those who don't know Mr Langford is Artemis Gold's COO (he was hired in Q1 2021)
I'm all for recruiting local Egyptian talent and 'retiring' expats but only if the expertise is in place (i.e. a suitable replacement was mentored well in advance)
106.60p +1.15 (1.09%) ( a lower closing price due to 1 1.1M UT trade )
The 4 days chart shows the trend has changed ...... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=ReVJi3zvxGTd6YfpdQUXvqJQLuFCU5TWeTBZlJZrz4E=
I'm finding more & more Barrick Egypt employee posts these days (which add up to about twenty or so Barrick Egypt geologists I currently count as LinkedIn contacts) these being the most recent
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bishoy-awad-ab492b209/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emamahm89/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/wael-mostafa-8a0629129/
Of course not all have Centamin roots (maybe 25%) but certainly indicates Barrick is fully operational in Egypt and pressing forward towards a goal. IMO part of that goal will be to take over Sukari while it's undervalued and geologically underexplored
Speculation aside lots of good posts on the LSE today that pass without comment. Perhaps the most balance I've seen of optimism vs alertness. Although some prefer everyone who posts only post on the positive and move on from past mistakes - there are plenty of future issues that are anything but positive. I see the risks being:
1) Doropo will not be profitable (read viable with current grades/volumes) as the estimate to build was far too low (and the new management knew it whilst continuing to publish outdated estimates)
2) Waste removal of the Sukari north hill is not fully accounted for in future AISC projections (and the new management know it) therefore costs will remain elevated even when the current Capital project is complete in late 2024/early 2025
3) The EMRA has yet to decide on the exploitation terms despite 18 months of negotiation. The process was originally given a 12 month deadline. Perhaps they are waiting for new owners of Sukari?
4) Centamin's dividend will shrink or be eliminated while debt is incurred to fund exploration, expansion, rising costs, falling gold price, etc.
These future risks represent a compelling reason for Centamin's BOD to welcome a buyout. A larger company with deeper pockets can ameliorate such risks for Centamin shareholders. Is that positive for current shareholders?
Most who've commented in the past say they prefer Centamin grow on their own steam - but is that even a possibility without preexisting diversification , lower AISC (bigger profit margins) or even the professional team capable of making it happen ?