The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Hi Mr Gnome,
Its been getting really bad for over a decade but after Boris Johnson and his bunch of greedy parasites got elected and brought about Brexit the UK is really down the lavatory pan !
Cant recall a government as arrogant and corrupt as this shower -
Three quarters of people in Britain say that it is becoming a worse place to live, a poll revealed on Monday amid long NHS waiting lists, rising taxes, strikes and high inflation deepening the cost-of-living crisis.
The Ipsos survey for the Standard made grisly reading for the Tories, with Rishi Sunak getting his lowest satisfaction score as Prime Minister.
The Government has also sunk to a record low on being seen to be doing a bad job on managing the economy, taxation, public expenditure and scores dismally on improving the health service, and badly on dealing with crime, and managing immigration.
They key findings were:
76 per cent think Britain as a place to live is getting worse, compared with 49 per cent in June 2010 at the start of the austerity years, and 71 per cent in May 2008 as the financial crisis hit harder with Northern Rock having been nationalised a few months earlier.
For Westminster voting intentions, Labour is on 45 per cent, down two points, the Tories 28 per cent, up three points, and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent, down one.
But Mr Sunak gets his lowest satisfaction rating as Prime Minister, with 63 per cent dissatisfied and just 26 per cent satisfied, a net score of minus 37, compared with minus 31 last month.
Sir Keir Starmer is seen as the “most capable PM” by 36 per cent to Mr Sunak’s 31 per cent, having been neck-and-neck in May and March.
39 per cent agree that Sir Keir is ready to be PM, with 37 per cent disagreeing, the first time he has a net positive score on this question.
Sir Keir’s satisfaction figure is unchanged on 31 per cent, but dissatisfieds are up four points to 53 per cent.
The findings for the Government are little changed, with 79 per cent dissatisfied and 14 per cent satisfied.
43 per cent agree that Labour is ready to form the next government, with 37 per cent disagreeing — similar figures since the start of this year.
https://tinyurl.com/fh8pbx6w
Precious metals traded with gains on Monday amid signs pointing to the possible end to interest rate hikes. last week, the Fed-preferred inflation indicator PCE price index fell from 3.8% in May to 3% in June, with the core index down from 4.6% to 4.1%. The Eurozone's economy is on track to avoid a contraction in the second quarter, with the preliminary report indicating a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. The euro area's annual inflation also dropped from 5.5% in June to 5.3% in July.
Gold rose by 0.65% to go for $1,971.95 per ounce at 9:52 am ET. Silver added 1.86%, selling at $24.79 per ounce a minute later. Platinum was up by 2.05% and went for $958.47 per ounce. Palladium increased by 2.73%, going for $1,249.84.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DJ
Thank you mrtibbles
Yes I was vaguely aware of the two markets and some differences, but I never saw such a sudden price difference.
Indeed have compared the 2 graph spot and future and often in the past prices had moved much closely...
Recently (some on here my be already aware) came across Hochschild H1 results, showing that they have hedged some 2024/25 production well above $2000/oz
Clearly the POG trend is up...nice.
Also right now has I type both spot and future are moving up in tandem.
Hi Tornado.
The grades in the open and the underground workings have always been worse then the management have, the underground workings have always been crucial to compensating for the poor grades in the open pit, something that was highlighted in 2018 when the one and only underground (working on limits )LHDR was allowed to almost self destruct with no contingency plan in place ,or even spare parts available!
This meant that the claimed unexpected mediocre grades in the open pit (which Pardey knew about in 2015)couldn't be enriched or compensated for with ore from the underground, albeit not being as good as previously thought!
The other problem was that the underground production had never been regarded with the appropriate importance so the production was severely restricted by poor access, egress and ventilation which to be fair is now being improved as part of the open pit waste clearance in order to offer greater overall working flexibility!
Hi Mr Gnome,
It has ever been so whichever the country you live in, as an example this is how 'Brexit" took place, etc,etc!
Cont-
What affects gold spot prices?
While gold investments are the primary driver of the gold market, people also purchase gold for various other uses, including use in the technology and medical industries and jewellery production. Many factors influence the spot price of gold, however, the following are key factors that are driving the value of gold right now.
Falling stock markets
In bearish markets, the stock market can significantly impact spot prices. If the stock market falls and investors lose confidence in their investments, there may be a trend toward increased gold sales, affecting the spot price.
Geopolitical issues
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset, and historically, its value goes up during uncertain times, including economic crises, so geopolitical factors play a significant role. Economic and political unrest conditions are continuously contributing to the rising spot price of gold. (After all, gold is known as a “crisis commodity” for a reason.) Whether you’ve purchased gold bars or other forms of gold, a weaker economy will add value to your investment due to the increase in gold’s spot price.
Fluctuation in fiat currencies
As previously stated, even though gold is traded internationally, the spot price is usually expressed in US dollars. As a result, as the value of the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for those purchasing it abroad. This has the potential to lower the spot price. However, if the US dollar falls in value, foreign investors are more likely to buy, causing the spot price to rise again.
Other significant factors that can influence the spot gold price are:
Jewelry demand ,Inflation or deflation,Oil and Gas Prices,Stock Market, Rates of interest. Equities Markets
You should now have a better understanding of the spot price of gold, which will help you if you’re considering investing in gold or gold stocks. As gold and gold investment products should make up at least 5-10 percent of your portfolio, it is helpful to know that the best time to buy is when spot prices are low. This is especially true if you’re using gold as a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty, as the value of gold will inevitably increase during these times.
Hope this helps Lucky?
Tibbs
Cont-
The Principles of Spot Price
The term “spot price” most commonly refers to the price of commodity futures contracts, such as those for oil, wheat, or of course, gold. Hence stocks are continually trading at the spot price. You cash out after buying or selling a stock at the quoted price. The primary distinction between spot and futures prices is that spot prices are for immediate purchase and sale, whereas futures contracts postpone payment and delivery to predetermined future dates.
Contango is the term you’ll encounter when you see that the spot price is typically lower than the futures price. Contango is quite common in the case of commodities with high storage costs. On the other hand, backwardation is a situation in which the spot price exceeds the futures price.
In either case, it is expected that the futures price will eventually converge with the current market price.
Some factors that are used to determine the spot price of a commodity include expected changes that could affect supply and demand, the risk-free rate of return for the commodity holder, and transportation costs in relation to the contract’s maturity date. Futures contracts with longer maturities typically have higher storage costs than contracts with close expiration dates.
Spot prices are constantly changing. While the spot price of securities, commodities, or currency is essential for immediate buy-and-sell transactions, it has a more significant impact in large derivatives markets. Buyers and sellers of securities or commodities can use options, futures contracts, and other derivatives to lock in a specific price for a future time when they want to deliver or take possession of the underlying asset. Buyers and sellers can mitigate the risk posed by constantly fluctuating spot prices using derivatives.
Futures contracts are also an essential way for agricultural commodity producers to protect the value of their crops from price fluctuations.
Cont-
Spot Price vs Futures Price
Spot or current market price of gold
The spot gold price is simply the current market price of gold at which traders can perform over-the-counter trades with each other. It is the cost of one troy ounce of gold, and the greater the price, the higher the demand.
Gold futures prices
Gold futures are regulated public exchanges where gold (in the form of contracts) trades for its expected value at a later date or in the future. The future price represents that although the buyer is willing to buy and set now, the actual transaction will not occur today.
Futures traders most commonly use the time between the first contract and the final exchange to sell or buy back any contracts they have purchased. When the exchange (or settlement) day approaches, they will have to settle their earnings and losses.
Cont-
Right I missed that bit. Thanks
The article is self explanatory
Https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-treads-water-copper-prices-flat-ahead-of-china-pmis-3138505
Apparently data is correct....but I don't understand this difference between spot and future...?
Contango December contract has a $40 gap higher than the August contract. The August contract ended in Asia markets. I have not seen this contango in all the time I have invested in Centamin. Someone may have since a contango like this before on a contract rollover.
Your date is wrong
European stocks were in the red in premarket trading as investors awaited several key economic data reports from the continent, including GDP data and inflation figures from the Eurozone.
The Euro Stoxx 50 decreased by 0.13% at 8:00 am CET, the DAX declined 0.15%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.32% at the same time and the CAC 40 was down 0.08% at 8:02 am CET.
The euro lost 0.05% against the dollar to sell for 1.10118 at 7:59 am CET and the pound traded flat compared to the greenback, going for 1.28524 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Happy Monday y’al
The Fed’s plans to continue reducing the size of their balance sheet, and that the end of the tightening cycle is on the horizon.
https://tinyurl.com/26rad7j9
Are you watching at gold price right now?
Is it my date provider wrong ? Showing nearing $2000/oz a massive price jump over the weekend.
Is it to do with Japan monetary policy?
The company has made cost savings. In 2022 the AISC for the entire year was $1399 per ounce mined. In Q1 of 2023 it was $1348 per ounce and in Q2 it was $1228 per ounce. The solar plant has removed 16% diesel usage. The payback is going quite well and the company may build a second pilot plant to reduce diesel usage further. The cost cutting has involved significant innovation in many aspects of mining. The on going programmes are anticipating a further $50 reduction on per ounce of gold mined. They also plan to join up with the electrical grid which reduce costs further in the year ahead.
The changes in underground mining have allowed for a gold grade reduction in the mining ore of 0.1g per tonne for both open pit and underground output. This maintains same delivery of gold ounces mined out despite an 11% drop in grade. This enables Centamin to maintain its share price in comparison to the previous year. The total ounce growth this year is 4.5%.
I would therefore suggest that in the month of august short term the Centamin share price may well increase, especially if gold prices exceed 2000 per ounce.
As for Doropo, my preference is for the company is to sell it and use the money on a JV with Shanta Gold in its West Kenya projects. They would easily find 1.8M ounces of gold and may be working on a project that could out do Doropo reserves.
I am interested in what the drilling outside of Sukari may reveal.
It is quite possible we get the autumn pull back, however, I believe 2024 may be a good year for Centamin.
Cowichan may be right on the intermediate term.
I'll give you my opinion - Centamin's share price is going down.
Of note the Doropo pre-PFS was originally based on $1700 gold price - but to cover up the erroneously low capital cost estimates from the PEA and pre-PFS the gold price estimate was raised to $1900 and most shareholders were oblivious . Some even deceitfully hailed the 'new' economics as impressive.
Mr Horgan knows exactly what he is doing - perverting the data and skewing presentations to make the economics shine in his favour. The house of cards will come down, the chickens will come home to roost.
It is never in the best interest of shareholders to switch to the current spot gold price to calculate a PFS or DFS. It's always in the best interest of shareholders to calculate a potential project with a ten year average gold price which would be around $1500 gold
Here's a excerpt from Barrick's 2022 annual report published March 2023 (yes, it's about reserves but I haven't the time or inclination to dig up PFS/DFS calculation's today but they are equally if not more importantly conservative)
In 2022, all mineral resources were estimated using a gold price assumption of $1,700 per ounce and a copper price of $3.75 per pound, both up from $1,500 per ounce for gold and $3.50 per pound for copper in 2021
https://www.barrick.com/English/investors/annual-report/reserves-and-resources/default.aspx
Mr Horgan has eroded the company's finances and reputation to the point it will take some serious good news (which yes, is still possible!) to turn the share price around. Gold jumping to $2100plus would also give the share price a reprieve - but depending on the price of gold to only rise or maintain its current level is not the way to ensure success. Nay, it is the way to guarantee failure, IMO . ((Now start throwing stones , for surely I have nefarious reasons for being soooo negative - maybe I get paid $1000 for every negative post? ))
Where is the s.p. going ?.
"Minister of Health and Population: More than 5,000 children are born daily, costing the Egyptian state billions of pounds"
https://twitter.com/AlMasryAlYoum/status/1685697253359357952
and the people's reply :
"Wise words from an ignorant person. Not every overpopulation is harmful. Our country's strength is in people. We invest in them, not in stone. Education, health and job opportunities. This is the strength of Egypt that must be distinguished, not the talk of the ignorant Abdel Nasser and those who came after him with complaints from the population. If you teach them correctly and make them work, the rate will be balanced with the resources. Other than that, deception and misleading!"
https://twitter.com/asyooty_el/status/1685702719498035201
-------------------------------------->>>>
The fact of the matter is Sisi spent 3 billion+ US $ on his presidential palace which still isn't complete - and his cabinet will never speak a word about it costing too much. When a leader cares more about building skyscrapers, clocktowers and palaces for himself - while complaining that his constituents replicate like rats and eat too much - his days are numbered.
Bidenonomics is just so ridiculous. Joe Biden has trouble remembering what day it is, let alone taking an attempt to construct a "new economic theory", theory being the operative word. Just one sham after another. He should retire and focus on getting his family matters in order beofe the last train leaves the station.
The favourite 5 words at Autralian Board meetings."I am not an economist" Really its the blind leading the "blinder"
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/opinions/bidenomics-2024-presidential-election-challenge-chen/index.html
https://ground.news/article/puzder-bidenomics-spin-vs-economic-reality
Surely a trip back to 140 isn't too far off now
Thanks Goldgnome- this stock is my primary day trading one- the rest of my portfolio is tied up eg pension, property etc driven by other I trust with balance- anyone with a lot of savings could simply trade this one- I work on being right 75% of the time and using stop losses to protect the big whacks- but as I’ve said before I sometimes get greedy on the the take profit and let it ride too long- with this stock so low and Horgan and evidently controlling things well now I think at some point this will jump - mail on economic data but also around RNS
H i Cowichan
The UK went through over a decade of austerity cuts by the Tory government after big banks and city trading desks city had brought about the last financial crash of 2008.
That was of course austerity for the likes of us whilst the city and big banks were bailed out with our money and the ordinary people had to endure wage freezes , evere cuts and back door privatisation to public services including the NHS, Social Care, General practice and dentistry.
The pandemic exposed just how unfit fr purpose our health service and now due to enforced changes practitioners contracts it there is a severe shortage of GP's , this situation has now spilled over into dentistry, the dentists have been in dispute with the central government over contracts since 2006, during the the pandemic the government failed to support dentists and so now most have the choice of either going bankrupt because many NHS procures are done at a loss ,or stop offing NHS services and go private, this privatisation was likely the intention of the government all along, so no more NHS funded dentistry for the majority.
The train drivers dispute isnt just about money it is about terms and coanditions of employment, the doing away with guards on trains and the closing of most ticket offices.
Just about very other profession in the UK are equally fed up with their terms of employment and the way are treated by their employers ,
The rail staff don't want to strike, but they have just had enough of not being listened to and if you are going to have a strike then it makes sense to do so when it has the maximum impact!
There is a sense of frustration, depression and despair over the UK and none of the politicians seem to have any idea how to sort it out, they will just say anything they think will placate the public so that they can remain on the Westminster gravy train!
nice one tony.
yes it confirms my thoughts about statistics, not surprising when you see the **** with the economy ,under bidens governance. though none of them much different. ( not me to blame ,everyone else)
it so easy to cherry pick news ,as we see with some posters on on social media sites ,even here.