Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
cowichan,
the share is "******ed" because the aisc are way to high , the 'bonanza " grades seem to be missing and the market trusts centanin like a rattle snake at a lucky dip!
No big surprise ,institutions always moving a few shares around.
You just seek attention just as Tony said.
And it doesn't take a magician
the facts are posted online for anyone to confirm -
Centamin's website still lists its MAJOR holder data as thus :
#1 VanEck Inc 111,244,970 shares 9.62%
#2 BlackRock 75,482,689 shares 6.53%
#3 abrdn plc 59,896,169 shares 5.18%
#4 Dimensional Fund Advisors 57,019,844 shares 4.93%
#5 The Vanguard Group, Inc 52,983,780 shares 4.58%
#6 Schroders 45,208,584 shares 3.91%
#7 Ninety One 43,647,274 shares 3.77%
#8 Aberforth Partners 41,332,214 shares 3.57%
#9 Wellington Mgt 39,703,129 shares 3.43%
#10 Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 39,227,049 shares 3.39%
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/shareholder-information/
while updated Marketscreener lists Centamin's MAJOR shareholder data as thus :
#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 shares 9.519%
#2 Dimensional Fund Advisors 47,425,970 shares 4.094%
#3 The Vanguard Group 41,000,780 shares 3.539%
#4 Hargreaves Lansdown 3.386%
#5 Aberforth Partners 38,141,675 shares 3.293%
#6 Norges Bank 2.811%
#7 Schroder Investment Management 31,157,324 shares 2.690%
#8 Ninety One UK Ltd. 27,128,540 shares 2.342%
#9 BlackRock 18,356,831 shares 1.585%
#10 Abrdn 18,275,264 shares 1.578%
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
this means:
Blackrock SOLD 57 million shares
Abrdn SOLD 41 million shares
Vanguard SOLD 12 million shares
Dimensional SOLD 10 million shares
Schroders SOLD 14 million shares
Ninety One SOLD 16 million shares
Wellington SOLD a minimum of 21 million cuz they're no longer in the top ten
etc.
None of us know what decisions institutional investors are making. What we do know is that the sell volume in August is whopping 1.5% of the entire share base. Daily volume average is around 2 M shares and quite a few have been buys. When the tape runs down the price on no volume suggests CFDs may be used a hedge fund or banks who trade stocks making a big deal of an $80 pull back on gold which is only $30 less than the $1936 average sell price in H1 as in the interim RNS.
Cowichan is exploiting poor sentiment which is rock bottom and enjoying stirring up the pot for some attention. The only reason is Cowichan wants huge amounts of really cheap Centamin shares.
I see Siko's rebuttal to my posts about Egypt have garnered many 'likes'
I am glad Siko is still posting and setting the record straight about the facts on the ground
However, the bitter pill many private Centamin shareholders are refusing to swallow is that strong hands (institutional investors) have already made their decision to sell. Like I posted before the major shareholder info on Centamin's website is not up to date. Institutions that had held for over a decade have SOLD over 200 million shares. Now many of these shares are in weak hands. What does that mean? It means many new holders won't hesitate to sell when spooked. They are not in for the long term.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Centamin's management (chiefly Mr Horgan) has faced a confidence crisis and lost the trust of many mining analysts/portfolio managers - one remaining of which is reassessing her position. Actually THE largest position (currently Centamin's largest shareholder) You can contact her yourselves:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imaru-casanova-75b58b64/
I will not be surprised if in the coming days and weeks she decides (if she hasn't already) to significantly reduce her Centamin holdings (nearly 10% of Centamin's float). When this happens it will be just more bad news for Mr Horgan and the share price stability going forward.
Can things turn around? Yes! The Market does not have access to the information Mr Horgan has access to. Step out drilling, geophysical surveys, satellite deposit resource figures and grades, the legitimacy (or not) of the bonanza zone, negotiations with EMRA, negotiations with interested 3rd parties - all is not lost. Yet, Mr Horgan hasn't made the choices that pleased the institutional investors - and many of the unanswered questions I've raised over the last few years are still unanswered (or the answer is not favorable)
Imaru talks about her promotion to manager of the VanEck gold ETF group of funds here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ-8sNJeYlo
It was getting so oversold and we got a similar reaction as yesterday perhaps with a down day, but not at the intra day lows.
Don't say that Mr T. After all this time, Siko's posts, your posts , the view of "the man on the train", Andrew Maguire and basel 3 + the Russians and the Chinese buying gold, surely we are about to turn the corner?
I'm hoping that the deeper we get into the waste clearing contract, things will start to look a bit more rosy.
Come on Mr T!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4
It's painful because thee company misled the market and shareholders o many times in the past, so assuming they are being truthful now it will take more than slick presentations too win back the markets trust and shareholders confidence.
Why not try getting some answers from Investor relations , you will likely be disappointed and I you will only gets a stock answers from FTI because it is rumoured that the board id very touchy about certain subjects!
So it likely best not to build up the faintest of hopes and to accept for the foreseeable future this share is well and truly hobbled and going nowhere!
Steve
The average Centamin share price was 106p on a gold sold price of $1794 per ounce if memory serves me correct. The average gold price sold in H1 was around $1934 per ounce.
The breakout price for spot on the gold channel is now $1908.
Finally Centamin costs are flat in comparison to last year. They have eliminated 16% or so of diesel usage for starters.
I should be clear, I too am a bit surprised it's this low. Again, it's pointless comparing with a point in time say last October cos we all know from experience this stock never works like this.
Gold has barely risen since Jan this year and CEY costs have as inflation rages. As I said- what proportion of costs will decrease rather than just inflate less moving forward (excl the waste striping pairing back a bit once backlog cleared)?
On Razors point Centamin trades at the same book value as October 2022.
Should mention that -20% figure is from 1 January this year.
Underperformance against US GDX ETF is -20% for Centamin which is growing production around 5%, replacing most of mined out reserves and is on course to maintain the AISC thanks to solar farm plant arriving with other efforts at $100M cost savings. Somehow they are 20% worse than everyone else weighted into that ETF. Centamin has been over done and has priced in gold at $1815 an ounce.
Meant have not love lol. Most pm’s suffering similar. Add to this the risk factor, plus what if gold drops back… another risk.
Big prob remain inflation. Gold up only a bit ~50usd year to date, inflation up way, way more and still much higher. As I love mentioned before l- I don’t know what proportion of their costs will actually deflate eg fuel or just inflate less which is the massive issue unless gold gets a big move on
Even if we’re no farther forward than 18 months of waste removal surely that should be reflected in the current valuation.
I’m with you Paul, the share price is ridiculously low.
I didn't think we would be dipping into the 80's again after we went over £1 a few months back.
I am really hoping for a bit of a turn around here. Some good news, rise in the price of gold, a monster nugget? ANYTHING!
Hi Siko,
Thank you for your explanation.
Tibbs
This might be a bit of a wild guess,
but i get the impression that you're not very keen on Egypt or Centamin?
I know exactly how you feel i personally have lots of companies i don't want to invest in also.
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket on Wednesday ahead of the newest updates on the United Kingdom's inflation and the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production.
The DAX stood flat at 8:00 am CET, and so did the CAC 40 at 8:04 am CET. The FTSE 100 declined by 0.29%. The Eurostoxx 50 fell by 0.13%.
The euro rose by 0.08% against the United States dollar at 7:56 am CET to sell for $1.09148. A minute later, the pound sterling stood flat against the greenback to change hands for $1.27046.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Happy hump y’al
Hi Cowichan..
It's me again.. and here are my replies to all your recent posts about Egypt..
6th Aug: Egypt's public schools..
Private tutors and lessons in Egypt have been a well known thing for decades now.. I took some when I was in school in the 80s.. and so did my brothers and sister before me.. I can't understand what the issue or its significance is now, or how this is an indication about Egypt's current economy situation, or how even this could affect Centamin..
--------
9th Aug: Egyptian expats can buy off their mandatory military service obligations by paying $5,000 in US dollars..
And? It's actually a good income for the country and a good opportunity for some expats.. Egypt's population is around 110 millions.. the army doesn't need all the mandatory numbers.. some expats will be happy to pay to get the exemption.. my nephew is one of them.. and they asked for the payment to be in Abu Dhabi because Egypt is entering in a contract with UAE worth around 400 million dollars to buy wheat.. for those who don't want to pay, then nothing has changed.. I myself have completed my mandatory military service in Egypt.. I might have chosen to pay if I was offered an exemption at the time..
----------
10th Aug: Egypt does not have the dollars to import needed fuel..
That was your chosen title for your post, while the actual article you posted stated (Egypt's PM said: It is an additional burden that the country will be able to provide).. Also I don't know if you are still following the situation in Egypt, but the electricity shortage situation is getting better, not worse.. it's still not good of course, and they are still cutting the power supply, but not as bad as before.. my mum used to get the electricity cut 3 hours a day in July, now it's one hour..
-----------
15th Aug: Coventry University’s Egypt..
Could you explain to me in figures how the Egyptian pound devaluation would push CEY's AISC upwards, when CEY's income is in US dollars?
In the example you are using, in Coventry University’s Egypt site it states (No annual increase applied on the tuition fees for the 2023/24 academic year. Any difference in the fees is only due to the ongoing devaluation waves of the Egyptian Pound).. so it's the same amount in English pound (or dollars)..
https://tkh.edu.eg/tuition-coventry/
so while the value of the Egyptian pound has halved, do you think Centamin has doubled the wages of the Egyptian workers who get paid in Egyptian pound? Of course not.. would you class that as a saving for Centamin whose income is in dollars?
Once again, I'm not saying the situation in Egypt is good, not at all, Egypt is a 3rd world country, the economy is bad, and has been getting worse, and people are suffering.. I'm just putting the facts right without exaggeration..
Siko
A bit off topic (but highly relevant to Centamin investors) my other Egypt investment - energy
An excerpt from VAALCO Energy's Q2 results :
Second quarter of 2023 realized pricing (net of royalties) was down 10% compared to the first quarter of 2023 and decreased 35% compared to the second quarter of 2022. This was driven by lower commodity pricing, higher royalty costs, as well as Egyptian sales in the second quarter that were sold domestically resulting in a $10 per BOE reduction in price achieved quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter, the Company expects to sell an Egyptian export cargo offshore which should improve the pricing.
Foreign income taxes for Gabon and Egypt are settled by the government taking their oil in-kind.
VAALCO continues to work with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on both collections and offsets and expects to have a third quarter 2023 export cargo offshore of around 500,000 barrels.
https://www.vaalco.com/investors/rns-releases
--------------------------->>>>
Egypt changes the rules, makes negotiating difficult and basically takes the stance of 'my way or the highway' when it comes to extractive industries - yes it's been that way for a long time but it's getting worse as the country is increasingly strapped for cash
VAALCO's above statement 'continue to work with Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on both collections and offsets' is polite talk for 'these b@stards are holding us over a barrel' , literally
I really don't know if the risk is still worth it (for me) when safer jurisdictions are not hard to come by
The point I was making isn't about the lawsuit at the University or the Egyptian law - but the mere fact tuition rates were doubled from last year - this is due to rampant inflation in Egypt which is much higher than many other countries
this foreign university isn't under the artificial umbrella that most other publicly or military controlled entities in Egypt operate - thus the true cost increases are necessarily passed on
to reiterate the point - Centamin faces uniquely higher cost pressures because they operate in Egypt - as a comparison both Newmont and Barrick's Q1’23 AISC were up by 13% q/q to US$1,376/oz & up 10% q/q to US$1,370/oz respectively
once price agreements with suppliers are renegotiated/renewed Centamin's AISC will rise considerably more than country's with lower inflation