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Another take on Argentina, from Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cognitive-investments-welcomes-jacob-l-130000396.html
.. I think there’s a lot of interesting things happening around the world, but I really do think Argentina is an interesting place to keep focused. Now, I’m not saying that Milei is going to be able to turn it around, and he’s got a long road to hoe, but part of me wonders, is this... Brazil had a moment like this around ‘94, ‘95 where they had hyperinflation, and they really had to reset things, and they had to think very clearly about structural reforms. It took them until about now to get to the point where all of that was starting to pay off.
I wonder if Argentina is at the very, very beginning moments of that, where we finally ticked bottom, and that Milei is a signal that people want real change there.
It’s interesting because from a geopolitical perspective, Argentina has everything you possibly could want. It’s the entrance to the Rio de la Plata, really doesn’t have any rivals around it that are going to threaten it, it can play all sides, ample resources that it can export. They have their own version of the shale revolution happening, so they’re going to add hydrocarbons to the list.
If you could just—but people have been saying this about Argentina for 100 years too—but if you could just get them to change their culture... and maybe it takes a guy who communes with his dead dog to get election strategy to be the man to push it forward.
As we’re looking back at 2023 and 2024, I wonder if we’ll say, “That was the year that Argentina finally started to change.” It’s a very interesting political experiment that’s happening..."
GLA and ATB
I listened to YPF Q4/FYE results presentation the other day.
Presentation by 3 x execs, in English, somewhat wooden 'talking to teleprompter' and slides supporting commentary that were difficult to read and only shown briefly. Interesting background footage of YPF operations and the Argentine countryside.
My summary take-away :
- YPF has a 4x4 plan - to quadruple the share price in 4 years. The way it hopes to do this shows the extent of economic mismanagement (but also potential):
- it wants to divest a large part of its bloated historic businesses (60% of its oil production + 40% of its gas production) that together contribute barely 1% - 1% !- to the bottom line;
- it hopes to have awarded an arranger mandate for multiple discrete privatisations by end Q1 2024 and have the divestment process underway by Q3 2024;
- use the proceeds (+ external funding + 'strategic partner') to develop its world-class LNG potential (hitherto unexploited) over the next 3-4 years (leasing floating LNG plants to kickstart the process), with eventual targets of 25-30 mtpa and $ 15Bn pa export earnings;
[Ed.: for comparison, Qatar 77mtpa; Australia 44mtpa; Malaysia 24mtpa; Nigeria 22mtpa; Indonesia 16mtpa; Algeria 12mtpa; Russia 10mtpa; Trinidad 10mtpa; Oman 8mtpa];
- divestment/privatisation is expected to unlock the 'hidden value' of assets-for-sale (hidden by bloated workforces, financial mismanagement and unproductive past 'politically-directed' investment), YPF counting on est. cost-savings of $ 800m pa as much as on actual sale proceeds [Ed.: management understandably reticent to quantify these];
- all the while, YPF expects to build on the 25% contribution of renewables (solar/wind) to the current bottom line.
Management fielded questions from UBS, JP Morgan, Santander, BTG Pascual and - I think- Seb Maril's LatAm Securities, with what I thought were fairly vague answers to a lot of the harder questions, perhaps understandably so, given the 'uncharted waters' that Argentina is now in.
I've had a shareholding in both BUR and YPF for a while now, am comfortably up on both and see no reason atm to divest.
NAI, DYOR, E&OE etc etc
Per Seb, the litigation just started in London Commercial court isn't BUR-financed
.."Petersen/Eton are financing the motion to recognize Judge Preska’s NY YPF judgment in London’s Commercial Court. Pertersen is using its own funds while Eton has pledge future earnings from the award. Burford is not financing this action. A recognition of the judgment occurs when the recipient of the award is seeking to enforce a judgment in a different jurisdiction from the original ruling..."
Although BUR 'not involved', I hope that this has their tacit approval, and isn't a case of the clients 'going rogue'....and possibly 'muddying the waters' (groan) in NY.
GLA
Https://twitter.com/messages/1532388093529149440/participants
Regarding Thursdays presentation, as a reminder, here's the previous transcript. Let's hope we continue in the same vein...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4649938-burford-capital-limited-bur-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript
Have you a link to the chat group please? I can't locate it. TIA
Not long to wait thursday earnings,looking forward to them
Im in the Burford chatgroup on Twitter,Asif posted it there to explain there reasons for selliing
Just being mischievous jammy , pretty much every time there’s an unusual sp movement on these threads there’s always someone commenting that someone knows something !!!!
What conspiracy?
Not usually into conspiracy theories but maybe they’ll get to buy back cheaper ?
I read the link and what Poolfax posts would add up with the fall, what you posted previously and yesterday's late RNS. What they posted about Burford isn't from their link and that's what interested me. Why would you inform the market of your intention to buy them back? That doesn't seem like a smart move; it's only going to serve you if you plan to sell more.
See Poolefax's link.
The backstory was reported a few days ago :
.."Of only tangential interest here, BUR's largest (10.5%) shareholder, Saudi's entrepreneurial Mithaq Capital has just swooped on a distressed US retail company :
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/children-s-place-s-stock-pops-21-after-investor-group-takes-majority-stake/ar-BB1ijZ9S
Market comment highlights aggressive, contrarian and opportunistic approach to business..."
HTH
Interesting. Have you a source Poolefox?
We built our position in BUR in 2019 (post MW) and kept it since then at 10.51% level. We did some corporate restructuring in 2020 where the investor entity changed so we updated market to notify that change (no share was ever sold).
We trimmed our position the day before yesterday to fund some urgent capital injection in another situation. We hate this disposal but we have all the intentions to buyback these shares as soon as we could. Here is the situation where we needed liquidity urgently
:https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/mithaq-capital-loans-children-place-160144590.html
If I remember correctly, Mithaq initially paid £5.25p per share, so nice profit for them
See today's RNS. Now 18.5m shares (8.5 %)
Mithaq prev had 10.5% (23m shares), so have sold down. I wonder who took them up?
Mithaq is the family investment co of the principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world by capital and one of the largest joint stock co's in Saudi Arabia.
GLA
IR has confirmed my understanding on the proposed NY legislation. "The legislation relates to bondholders who sue. It doesn’t relate to court judgments or arbitration awards"
Burford Capital Limited ("Burford"), the leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, today announces that it will release its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2023 ("FY23") and the three months ended December 31, 2023 ("4Q23") on Thursday, March 14, 2024, at 7.00am EDT / 11.00am GMT.
In case of a growing company, there are several parameter, by which you can evaluate their performance.
Paying 9 % as interest may be a better deal, than leaving out promising opportunities or fund them through the investment funds. A few of the main long time owners might also be those fimamce by bonds, at that nice level of interests. They are bankers, with almost infinite resources.
"We are having a blow out year"
RNS:
"Burford Capital Limited,the leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, today announces the closing on January 30, 2024 of the private offering of $675.0 million aggregate principal amount of 9.250% senior notes due 2031."
We certainly are Mr Bogart, we certainly are.
AceOfClubs
Hi Brigra, thanks for this!
This is the Quillan partner (founder) involved hxxps://www.lexology.com/firms/1325267/Mark_Hastings
.."For over five years, Mark acted for notable oligarch Boris Berezovsky, now deceased, in several signature cases. In Gorbunova v Berezovsky (2013), Mark succeeded in setting aside a £300 million worldwide freezing order obtained by his client’s former long-term partner, who made several claims against him. In Berezovsky v Hine & Ors (2011), Mark acted in a number of separate multi-billion-dollar actions arising from an alleged joint venture between CIS oligarchs, in a case involving freezing orders, search and seizure orders, jurisdiction disputes, complex issues of Russian law and Russian asset valuation. In Berezovsky v Abramovich (2012), Mark acted in $6 billion Commercial Court proceedings concerning Russian oil and aluminium assets, with the three month trial described by the international media as the most significant private court case ever..."
'Don't mention the Malvinas, ...'
Ho hum
No problem.. I tweeted Seb with the Magazine editor's details.
Seb replied to me saying that they had contacted him. He is now waiting for a copy of the actual document to see the details.
https://twitter.com/BrianCop/status/1765513935866798125
Google "New York moves to rewrite law on sovereign debt default recovery"
My reading is that it will only affect bond debt raised in NY and this nothing to worry about. I have however already written to Robert in IR and will share if anything of note