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Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 0.80% 0.10%
They're going to lose many Englishes.
I've add the new Canada PPIB short, based on yesterday's closing price of 128p.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzpntXIbDbv3WIJxMzgrF484U08WUxqoWPJuzrHhTKoVPC-2NGC_bsiH4p5RVM3E8LnsOtS6NazImN/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive
AKO have reduced their short positions so that chart will be out of date.
Does anyone have any thoughts on how the upcoming election will impact BT? I have a decent profit here in a short space of time and am wondering if it might be worth taking profits or holding on for my initial target of around 160p. Maybe worth halving the position and letting the rest do what it will.
Always DYOR as for opinions or views on the internet thats a bit like russian roulette play at your own pearl, Share are a gamble at the best of times, BT seems to be having good reviews at present so perhaps most would say hold or buy, my only advice is only gamble/invest what ever you are ready to lose.
My opinion is upcoming election will do wonders for BT because... at previous BT results presentation (not recent one with AK - aka 'The Firestarter') they explained how BT board were already having lots of talks with Labour on how BT operations can support economic growth; lower carbon, faster +more reliable data services and cost reductions.
Hence why after analysing the macros, the BT results and the results presentations I made decision to invest big here... Obviously what I'm saying here is all in my opinion. DYOR because each person has to do what's right for themselves and their own situation. Never good to copy + paste, or follow like a sheep.
I agree Savage, a Labour Government would also likely direct national contracts in BT's direction too. The CWU will also probably quietly ask the Government to support BT due to the large Union membership. In the case of companies like BT, I suspect a Labour Government would be supportive.
Yes I have only got money in the stock market that is beyond what I need for paying bills and mortgage for the next 18 months to two years. My work is in high demand at the moment, but computer programming could end up being savaged by the very projects we are currently working on. I'm hoping to build up a portfolio over the next 4 or 5 years so I won't become obsolete and without income in the future.
I will hold on here and have set a stop loss for taking 10% profit incase some bad news materialises. I always do research myself, but don't have the time to be as thorough as those that work on the markets full time or the professionals with their analysts.
I suppose I might be able to switch roles into finance from programming, but it might take a bit of salesmanship as I don't have any economics or accounting qualifications.
Thanks for your time and words of advice everyone. A.I. Capone
" In the case of companies like BT, I suspect a Labour Government would be supportive."
Any disputes with the Unions would be between BT and the Unions , andI dont see a Govt itself getting too involved....
You cant be a shareholder wanting efficiency and better earnings on one hand but then be supportive of Unions wanting to keep a bloated work force in the face of digital and AI developments aimed at assisting the company be more competitive etc
BT is already working in terms of digital NHS and with providing services to business .... so... I dont actually see any difference between either a Labour or Tory Govt in terms of using BT within business, education or health
https://newsroom.bt.com/five-ways-to-unlock-a-digital-health-revolution-in-the-nhs/
I guess we need to wait and see , in terms of what each party may "promise and pledge " in their manifesto ....
I suspect the markets are more focused at the moment on the continual issues of wages,inflation, growth , geo-politics , etc .... service inflation and wage demands are still an issue for the BoE , and rents are continuing to show a high yoy increase
The futures market may well be pricing in a Labour win, but personally I would not be expecting Starmer to do anything too drastic, too soon ....July election and then a summer Parliament recess....
probably a lot of waffle initially about hope for the future and all that I suspect.... Labour know they can have a period in which they can blame the Tory´s for the mess before they would have to be accountable but Reeves will have the same problem with having to borrow to get by, as Hunt ..
Initially you could see a sense of hope and optimism in terms of having a new Govt in Labour, given that there are so many things to improve , and the chance of a new team having a go at making things better, but that could fade as the reality of getting down to actually solving the difficult problems digs in , into the autumn/winter , in terms of the time needed to bring the changes through
Right now BT has suggested a weighting towards H2 rather than H1 and there isnt likely to be much forthcoming until the next quarter update on July 25th ... so the market price "may" drift a bit as is being seen currently
Fleccy I agree with you on Labour gov being favourable for BT but... where you said: "a Labour Government would also likely direct national contracts in BT's direction too." - Well the real reason national contracts come BT's way is that BT own by far the massive bulk of the national infrastructure... so there's not really any other option when it comes to those big scale national contracts really.
Didn’t think I’d get the chance to top up at these prices
I want to top up aswell. But few days ago would have paid 10p more. So maybe in a few days pay 10 p less. Who knows when is good. Just saying
" Who knows when is good."
yeah...but now heading towards a Bank Holiday weekend in the UK and Memorial weekend holiday in the US , so ..not sure there is going to be a great desire to put money on the table and leave it there , ....until next week
I reckon shorters will get this below 120 before ex div date .. then get best part of a 6p drop.. that’s the time to buy more in my opinion
I think the Canadian cowboys are at the last chance saloon
"I reckon shorters will get this below 120 before ex div date"
who knows, but I suspect the name of the game is to buy as low as possible to get the dividend with as high a yield as possible, and that will be part of the profit taking selling
The main reason I believe Labour would be better for companies like BT, is that Socialist Governments tend to be nationalistic and more supportive of home based companies. I would expect the Altnets have more to worry about with a Labour Government than BT does. Personally I think the Conservatives have been bad for UK listed companies, they've nurtured a regulatory environment to nobble companies like BT and allowed others to steal BT's lunch. I wont be voting Labour, but I'll watch with interest to see what they do to take the boot of our home grown companies.
If it was down to me I'd immediately take away any tax benefits associated with investing in other markets, like making ISA's exclusive to UK listed stocks only and introducing a friendlier tax environment for UK based funds to invest in UK listed stocks.
I used to believe the Conservatives were the party for UK business, but they clearly aren't. I think the Conservative free for all market mentality has ruined the investment case for UK listed companies, it's about time they were out.
"I reckon shorters will get this below 120 before ex div date"
The dividend isn't good for short sellers. To use Canadian PPIB as an example, they must be holding around 79.5 Million BT shares meaning they'll be on the hook for a dividend bill of around £4.5 Million, assuming they are still in play on Ex Dividend day. They are probably currently showing a paper loss of around £12 Million on their short sells, and the risk for them is that BT shares could resume an upward trajectory post Ex Dividend. All I can think is that they're betting on the court case result pushing BT back down to around £1, or lower, otherwise they struggle to make a profit on their bets, if I'm understanding things correctly.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzpntXIbDbv3WIJxMzgrF484U08WUxqoWPJuzrHhTKoVPC-2NGC_bsiH4p5RVM3E8LnsOtS6NazImN/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive
I should have said they must be shorting around 79.5 Million BT shares meaning they'll be on the hook for a dividend bill of around £4.5 Million,
You are assuming that the fund does not have a long position. They maybe using the short position as a hedge.
Also, the Pension fund mentioned has a JV with Hermes. Hermes as you know is the manager of BT's pension fund.
I'm not assuming anything, I'm just talking about their reported short positions. If they have a long position, then that's something else and nothing to do with this thread.
Fleccy
with respect ...your approach regarding ISAs isnt going to make the slightest difference to pension funds , and you may find the ISA payers will not bother and put more into their pension which will continue to buy into the global giants ..so the idea could cause more damage than it attempts to reduce
At the end of the day ..." most" people don't care how they get a good pension..they just want it ... and if it means buying shares in Alphabet,Apple and anyone else ..they wont particularly care ...they certainly arent going to be patriotic towards "uk companies" if they don't give what they believe to be the best return...
" a friendlier tax environment for UK based funds to invest in UK listed stocks. "
if your UK based fund is an Asian Fund,US Fund, Japan Fund or a Emerging Economies Fund etc then it is not going to give a fig what the tax environment is ... and a UK focused fund will already be investing in the UK so wont need a further tax incentive
Fleccy
ex-dividend date is 8 August 2024, so a long way to go before any shorter has to concern themselves about that ...and now a General election before that !!
I don't care Poker, I'd just make sure that any investments in foreign companies and markets are done outside of a tax free wrapper, and any funds that want to qualify for ISA's would also have to hold only UK listed companies, so any global, S&P, NASDAQ, or whatever funds like that would be outside of any tax free wrappers. If people want to invest in Google and Microsoft that's ok, but they can pay Capital gains tax when they decide to sell. The Government could also separately give tax incentives to funds who focus on UK listed stocks only.