London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Anyone any idea why this is going down and down a high of £5.39, yesterday hit 5.29 until US opened and tanked.. is it earnings related and we are building up to a bigger drop on earnings as results will be not as good as last year
I watch Exxon,Chevro,Bp,Shell in US markets.
What I do notice is they don’t always move in the same direction ( or often as much as each other).
Something BP moves in step with them sometimes it appears to be doing catch up.
Eg one day BP seems to be in favour,more than the other three.
Then a couple of days later when they all fall,BP has further to fall to catch back up.
I suspect it’s rotation between the different companies in the sector.
At this moment in time it’s also a function of who has reported and who is still to report.
OP has dropped nearly 5% since Monday, the SP of the oilies moves in tandem almost, just follows it up or down in a real time situation. Individual SP's move independently on company news alongside this OP movement impetus.
I'm surprised BP hasn't dropped more in line with OP which tells me that despite the drop in oil BP has risen in real terms and will bounce back strongly when the OP turns back north.
As most of you know, I'm not sure we'll see any major movements on earnings - mgmt has set out its stall for the next 2 years re: buybacks and I anticipate any good news re promised 4% uplift in divi's is baked in. Based on other oil majors it seems this earnings is set to be a non-event. Q2 may be more interesting as it looks like we're sustaining 85-90$ oil... which starts to raise the prospect of potential M&A as oilers are just generation so much cash.
As always, its pointless focusing on the day to day, zoom out to 2 years+ I say and base your actions on this.
I'm focusing on the day to day because I'll be selling 90% of my holding to buy a house very shortly and I'm looking for a sell point.
Each to his own.
Jezzoo
What’s your time scale.
My thoughts are be aware right now of sell in May.
Last 3 years there has been a top in early May.
If you have time this has been followed by higher highs later.
Been in the same position,usually like to lock in a chunk at an acceptable price ,then take a chance on the rest( a little gamble to see if I can improve on sp.)
I’m sure you know what you are doing.( at least as well as any of us know)
Meoryou.
My time scale is the next 4-5 weeks I think (subject to the process)
Good luck
Hope it goes well for you
Thank you meoryou and thanks for your input.
Hi Jezzoo
That does make all the difference in regard to near term share price monitoring and I really hope you get your decision on timing and price perfect. Property purchase is stressful enough on its own so good luck with both.
I am hopeful that the current share price fall is very short term. The Fed's interest decision is a current factor and that the oil price will bounce on no middle east progress.
Good timing Jezzoo
Mark
Thanks MarkGo,
I'm hoping the turn around will be a matter of days, I may just cash on the next decent rise when it comes.
Evening all
Looking forward to the manufactored market drama moving on. Federal reserve interest decision, Powell's cautionary words. The return of 50% of markets after today's International labour day market holiday and the US government's weaponised EIA oil demand data seen for the corruption of detail for political advantage. US Presidential election just six months away.
BP back in the 520's within days.
Powell's comments. Dov
Return of many European and Asian markets from International labour day tomorrow.
EIA's corrupted oil demand data seen for what it is.
BP held up well today considering.
Mark the oil data 100% agree
Manipulation
MarkGo, "EIA's corrupted oil demand data seen for what it is."
Surely the EIA is reporting correct data and not falsified wrong data ? I know that Biden wants a low oil price for his election and that movements within the US Oil Reserves (SPR) can distort data, but surely the EIA is reporting the correct figures ?
BP is in play for a takeover, its a sitting duck...be patient
Significant acquisitions included ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for $64.5bn and Chevron's $53bn deal to buy Hess I think says it all.
The EIA noted that these deals are the largest in real terms since Occidental Petroleum Corporation acquired Anadarko Petroleum Corporation for $55bn in 2019.20 Mar 2024, and Crownrock for $12bn in 2023.
No one has the dosh to acquire BP which have to be north of £100bn.
I’d just be happy that the FTSE still has it as SHEL is leaving FTSE. That’s for sure.
Clued/ Spights/Mark
I have always believed that the swings week to week are a function of start times of tankers being loaded or offloaded.
Eg if you start loading a tankers at several ports 6 hours before reporting time or 6 minutes.
Note if it’s only 6 minutes,the other 5 hrs 54 minutes would have been taken up with one tanker departing and a new one being tied up.
It simply displaces the activity into the next reporting window.
So large loss followed by large gain next week.
It’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.
$10 a pop and they can have my pot tomorrow.
No one has the dosh to acquire BP which have to be north of £100bn.
Fancy Conoco might test the waters with a bid which would show how far BP have fallen in the big stakes but is it actually value for money.It is cheaper to increase your reserves by buying rather than exploration by a long while.Thats what BP always did
You say CONOC (COP)could launch a bid for BP. There smaller than BP, and think the US market has learnt a big lesson from Oxy’s Acquistion of ANDARKO in 2019. It destroyed them.
COP don’t have prowess as XOM or CVX, and note COP have already completed M&A of Burlington for $36bn
https://intellizence.com/insights/merger-and-acquisition/largest-merger-acquisition-deals/
BP is not going to be acquired guaranteed .
Morning all
Clued- The issue I have with the EIA is their methodology and their adjustment pattern that enables them to publish now and adjustment later. Now that would not matter if it did not have the subsequent influence over the price of oil.
By design ? Well if not then I would expect adjustments to data would be to overstated as well as understated published data.
The fact of the matter is that the EIA adjustments to US oil production has become consistently negative, indicating that US oil production is likely overstated and not only are supplies overstated, implied weekly oil demand has been understated. Surely, the flawed methodology could be amended to avoid this problem. The EIA's previous attempt at clarity in response to concerns of method was merely the substitution of one confusion for another.
My question is this. Is the EIA really a government agency doing its best in attempting to publish official data, or, is it under the influence of vested interests?
My opinion after studying EIA publications for the past two years alongside 'independent' data providers is the latter.
Have a great day all
Mark
The US market has learnt a big lesson from Oxy’s Acquistion of ANDARKO in 2019. It destroyed them.
Warren Buffet would probably disagree with you but you are correct that initially OXY did struggle with the acquisition of Anardarko as the overpaid by outbidding other competitors but that is water under the bridge now.
Certainly taking over a company that has a larger market cap than yourself is not that unusual and the mood of BP shareholders is such that there might not be that high level of opposition to a takeover.Conoco would be most interested in BP's assets in Gulf of Mexico and Permian basin.They got an absolute bargain from Shell when the bought their Permian assets and Bp's acquisition of BHP assets there was also an absolute snip.Other assets can be sold off to reduce debt.US traders like all share deals as there is no capital gains tax to pay on those sort of deals and at least 50% of BP equity is held over the pond
BP is not going to be acquired guaranteed .Unquote. We shall see on that one,absolutely nothing guaranteed in the oil business,learnt that from 35 years in the oil patch.
Thanks MarkGo. Surely the Institutional Investors and Analysts, etc... would pay little attention to the EIA's data if it is that inaccurate, that's the issue I have.
Your welcome Clued.
Flawed or otherwise, the EIA data - with its accuracy issues - remains the ' best ' public information available to private Investors and small to medium institutions who do not have capabilites or resources to analyse all the feed in data. Larger institutionally investors with have their own independent reserch departments and analysts.
The reason the market reacts to this data , that is pre-released prior to publication to a financial cabal, is for financial gain. The data is a utilised as a critical component of the paper ( financial) oil traders strategy. The data and numbers in this EIA releases may not be right but there is still $$$$$$ to be made by reacting to them.
Have a grand day.
Mark